At 11:00 am today, BTC broke through $99,000, reaching a high of $99,408, setting a new record high and getting close to the $100,000 mark. Market sentiment has heated up. Polymarket predicts that the probability of "BTC breaking through the $100,000 mark today" is 71%, and industry insiders are holding their breath waiting for this moment to come. So, what factors are driving BTC to break through the $100,000 mark, and can the bull market continue after breaking through $100,000?
Factors that will break $100,000
Why has BTC seen a crazy surge in recent days? This can be analyzed from both short-term and long-term perspectives:
In the short term, Trump's deal and loose monetary policy are the two major "catalysts".
James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said in the report that the current price and flow of BTC are greatly affected by US politics, and the recent surge in capital inflows may be related to changes in the Republican election situation.
The policy shift of major central banks around the world (many central banks around the world have intensively cut interest rates since 2024) and the easing of liquidity have boosted risk sentiment, which has also become a tailwind for cryptocurrencies. In addition, the market generally predicts that there may be a risk of rising inflation in the United States after the election, which objectively boosted this round of BTC market.
From a long-term perspective, BTC's fundamentals are also supported by strong demand.
First, the application prospects of BTC in the financial industry have been clarified, and its application in financial models such as financing and lending has become the most active field of financial innovation. The financial model around BTC has also become the core content of digital finance, which is the fundamental reason for the continuous rise in BTC prices. Second, under the premise that the actual use of BTC is clear, with the implementation of BTC futures and spot ETFs, BTC has become the mainstream asset allocation of asset management institutions, and the allocation and holding of BTC by financial institutions has increased the demand for BTC.
Recently, huge amounts of funds have been flowing into BTC even more crazily. According to SoSoValue data, on November 21, Eastern Time, the Bitcoin spot ETF had a total net inflow of US$1.005 billion, recording a net inflow of funds for four consecutive days. As of press time, the total net asset value of the Bitcoin spot ETF has reached US$105.908 billion, accounting for 5.46% of the total market value of BTC (ETF net asset ratio), and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached US$30.352 billion. Among them, BlackRock officially updated the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund data. As of November 20, IBIT BTC holdings reached 481,270.4779 BTC, and the holding market value reached US$45,389,677,568.29, setting a new record.
Can the bull market continue?
BTC is approaching the important psychological threshold of $100,000. The market is optimistic about its future trend, but there are also certain risks and uncertainties, such as the callback of excessive optimism, uncertainty in macroeconomic policies, the impact of whale behavior, etc.
Regarding the strong BTC, the BCA Research team led by analyst Dhaval Joshi said in a report in the middle of this month: "Despite BTC's election-driven rise, its 260-day fractal dimension indicator has not yet approached the 1.2 level of market reversal. Therefore, while we should expect BTC to have a short-term correction, BTC's structural uptrend is intact, with the ultimate goal of more than $200,000."
Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, posted on social media that based on the progress of the bull markets in 2017 and 2020, BTC is still in the early stages of price discovery in this bull market.
Michael Novogratz, founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital, said that BTC is expected to break through the much-anticipated $100,000 mark in its strong rebound after the US election, but this does not mean that it will continue to rise. Although it is "inevitable" for BTC prices to reach six figures and may continue to rise, it will eventually pull back. There is a lot of leverage in the cryptocurrency market at present, and the crypto community is already highly leveraged, so a market correction is coming.
In addition, Michael Novogratz also warned that stocks like MicroStrategy, which trade in a manner similar to BTC leveraged trading, may face larger adjustments.
Jinxiang believes that whether BTC can break through $100,000 today, this price point has become the focus of global market attention. In the long run, BTC's potential is far more than $100,000.
For investors, in the context of high market sentiment, it is important to remain rational and decide whether to invest based on sufficient research and risk assessment.
Let us wait and see BTC’s “$100,000” moment!
