Author: DC greater than C

This article analyzes the trends of BTC, ETH, SOL, and altcoin seasons in past bull markets in 2021, 2023, and 2024, comparing their start times, and summarizes how to grasp the current and future bull market altcoin trends. The full text exceeds 3,000 words, and reading it requires a lot of patience, but you can scroll down to see the conclusion. I believe that reading it all will yield good returns, thank you all.

Having experienced the cycles of bull and bear markets, witnessing the rise and fall of numerous tracks, the crypto market is like a stage full of infinite possibilities. Here, knowledge is continuously iterated, and only through continuous learning can one keep up with the market rhythm and reap wealth within their cognitive range. As the saying goes, 'One day in the crypto circle is equivalent to one year in the human world.' This rapid turnover is precisely the unique charm of the crypto market. The views are for reference; if you have different opinions, feel free to discuss and exchange. Thank you (all K-line trends are based on weekly data)

From the end of 2020 to the first half of 2021, specifically around 519

回顾以往牛市走势,如何把握山寨全赛道普涨的机会?

As shown in the chart:

The first wave from October 5, 2020, to December 21, 2020: BTC surged first, ETH fluctuated and rose. From the K-line perspective, ETH was indeed weak during this phase;

The second wave from December 28, 2020, to February 22, 2021: BTC surged and then corrected with fluctuations, while ETH initiated a significant surge with slight fluctuations;

The third wave from March 1, 2021, to May 19, 2021: BTC showed high-level fluctuations, ETH started a significant main rising wave until 519 arrived; then they all fell together for correction.

In the earlier stages, BTC surged, and in the mid to late stages, ETH surged. Let's take a look at the trends of various altcoin tracks.

Platform coins like BNB, MX, HT, etc.: A significant main rising wave began on February 1, 2021, after a period of fluctuating rise.

Meme track: Doge at the end of the first wave to initiate the second wave leading to a significant main rising wave. SHIB has been fluctuating since its launch on Uniswap in August 2020, officially starting its main rising wave in January 2021, until 519 arrived;

Public chain track: Refer to SOL, AVAX, CHR, ADA, DOT, ATOM, FTM, ENJ, VET, etc., all of which started their main rising wave in the second wave on December 28, 2020. THETA, NEAR, INJ opened in the mid to late part of the first wave;

Games and metaverse tracks: Refer to AXS, MANA, SAND, etc., with the first wave showing fluctuating rises and the second wave initiating significantly main rising waves;

DEFI: Refer to UNI, SUSHI, MKR, 1INCH, ALPHA, COMP, etc., all of which are in the second wave opening, with very few in the first wave showing fluctuating rises;

Other tracks: For example, the previously very popular FIL and old coins like ETC only started their main rising waves in the third wave;

Summary

In this main rising wave trend, BTC surged first, even achieving historical highs time and again, while ETH still fluctuated and rose until the mid to late stage when ETH truly caught up and started the sequential main rising waves of various altcoin tracks. The tracks listed are not exhaustive, as the main tracks generally saw significant rises in the secondary market with many profitable opportunities, especially in MEME, L1, games, etc.

Note: Most of the projects here were listed on Binance in 2019-2020. Projects like the crazy hype in 2021 around the metaverse and games were basically already listed on Binance in 2020, which is enough to prove Binance's grasp of new narratives and new tracks in the market. As for public chains, this has always been a hot narrative for hype. Meme is the rise of Dex in 2020, coupled with Musk's calls for DOGE and SHIB, making MEME gradually popular.

The second main rising wave trend from July 2021 to the end of 2021

回顾以往牛市走势,如何把握山寨全赛道普涨的机会?

From the chart, it can be seen that from July 2021 to November, the main rising wave trend shows BTC and ETH almost overlap and rise together. As for the previously mentioned altcoin increases, those who have experienced it should still remember clearly.

MEME track: Although DOGE has not significantly risen in the second half of the year, SHIB rose tenfold after 519, and many good projects have emerged in the Meme track, such as BABYDOGE, FLOKI, etc.;

Public chain track: In the second half of the year, AVAX, SOL, CHR, ENJ, ADA, FTM, etc., have all reached new heights;

Games and metaverse tracks: AXS, SAND, MANA, RACA, etc., have all reached new heights;

DEFI track: Basically, there has been no new hype or rises in the second half of the year;

Other tracks: For example, FIL, old coins ETC, BCH, have not seen new hype or rises. Thus, the entire year of 2021 has come to an end;

Summary of the altcoin market during the 2021 bull market:

Macroeconomic background: After the 2020 election, the entire year of 2021 was a cash release cycle due to the pandemic. This was the largest cash release by the Federal Reserve since 2008. Under such a macroeconomic loosening and crazy liquidity environment, BTC rose nearly 7 times from $10,000 in October 2020 to $69,000, and ETH rose more than 14 times from $340 in October to $4,870.

As for altcoins, is it really a general rise? In the first half of 2021, before 519, it indeed was a general rise, but what about the second half? Many tracks went silent and directly began to harvest market liquidity.

PS: Let's see how friends define this bull market's altcoin general rise, a 5-10x and over 10x increase. Speaking of which, the general rise rate is about 70% or more. Many friends must be saying, 'What the hell, a bull market only makes 10 times? That's less.' OK, if we define over 30 times as the altcoin general rise, then I can tell you clearly, the general rise rate is at most 20%.

Only public chains, games, metaverse, and Meme are the tracks that are always hyped. Then DEFI, there are actually many that I haven't listed that are not so popular tracks, such as music, fans, infrastructure, etc., which are basically either at their peak or playing dead.

Moreover, popular and hyped projects in public chains, games, metaverse, and Meme have basically been launched in 2019-2020. Especially those projects that were listed on Binance in 2020, whether through direct listings or IEOs. So, are the track projects launched in the secondary market on Binance from 2022-2024 worth paying attention to? Don't rush, I will mention that later.

As for the bull market in 2021's first launch opening in the secondary market, regardless of whether it's a large exchange or a small exchange project, may I ask how many have survived to this day? Do friends still remember? Those who remember might be stuck dead.

Third main rising wave trend from October 2023 to March 2024

回顾以往牛市走势,如何把握山寨全赛道普涨的机会?

As shown in the picture: From the chart, from October 2023 to March 2024, the main rising wave trend shows BTC and ETH almost overlap and rise together. What about altcoins? After experiencing the bear market in 2022, new popular track projects have emerged in large exchanges, such as AI, ETH's L2, and modular blockchain of LI, while the metaverse has already lost its heat.

Let's take a look at the situation of public chains, L2, AI, games, and Meme. To say which track project has the highest increase, it ranks as public chain = Meme > AI > games.

Old public chains: ETH, SOL, INJ, CKB don't need to be mentioned;

New public chains: SEI, TIA, SUI, TAO, NTRN, 5-10 times;

Meme: ORDI and SATS (BRC20's Meme), PEPE, WIF, BOME, BONK, FLOKI, 5-10 times and above;

AI: ARKM, WLD (related to AI, for now, let’s put it in AI), 5-10 times;

Games: PIXEL, PORTAL, XAI, ACE, etc., showing 50%-2 times;

Other tracks like DEFI and infrastructure: PENDEL and ID, 5-10 times;

ETH's L2: ARB, OP, STRK, some have risen but not significantly, only METIS has done well with 10 times;

Aside from the other projects mentioned above, there hasn't been much increase, and they are not in the popular narrative for hype.

Summary

Macroeconomic background: After experiencing the interest rate hike cycle in 2022, the rate hike was paused in September 2023, combined with the hype around BTC spot ETF and trading.

The 'release of water' I mentioned earlier refers to expanding the balance sheet, and this time point is about shrinking the balance sheet, naturally, market liquidity is limited. The limited funds are concentrated on the main tracks, making it impossible to compare with 2021. Therefore, a general rise across all altcoin tracks is very difficult, with the enduring narrative for hype still being public chains and MEME. As for games, I personally believe that the main reason is still limited market liquidity and that SOL's rise and the emergence of Meme on SOL have taken away too much market liquidity.

Do friends still remember what I said earlier? The track projects launched in the secondary market on Binance from 2022-2024 are worth paying attention to. The projects mentioned above, except for old public chains, are basically those that were listed and opened in the secondary market on large exchanges in 2022-2023. So, we need to grasp this trading experience and see if it continues to hold true.

Market trends from October 2024 to now (the sharing of the current market also includes my personal summary of the macro context, BTC, ETH, SOL, and various altcoin tracks)

I won't show the chart for BTC and ETH's trends, and friends are also clear about the small increases of various altcoin projects.

The only thing that has taken off and risen significantly now is MEME. Even among L1s, only SOL, SUI, and the old public chains are doing well; the others are playing dead. The good thing is that right now, at the moment I am writing, ETH seems to be starting to gain momentum.

Summary

Macroeconomic background: In September 2024, this cycle of interest rate cuts will begin, combined with Trump's friendly attitude towards crypto as the new U.S. president, the end of the balance sheet reduction in Q1 next year may be approaching, along with the spot ETF. Although it hasn't been a cash release yet, it has finally shifted from tightening to easing, and the new four years are very much worth looking forward to.

The first wave is from now until Q1 of next year, then we'll see if there will be a U.S. economic recession or other black swans. If there is, then it will be another 312, after which it will be similar to the situation from 2020 to 2021, and I will share specifics then.

If there is no U.S. economic recession and it soft lands, then there won't be a 312 event, and the music will continue to play.

BTC, SOL, BNB, including the new public chain SUI, have all risen, driving the rise in the MEME track, while other tracks show little movement. As we analyzed before, it needs ETH's push, conveniently, ETH is currently gaining momentum, seemingly starting the second wave. (As of publication, the market response, isn't it what I said before, L1 is also exploding, this is an enduring narrative for hype)

Since ETH has initiated its second wave of increases, given the broader context, there is a high probability of a general rise across all altcoin tracks. However, if we want to specifically pick a track that performs well, it’s worth choosing: new and old public chains, MEME, L2 on ETH, and AI-related projects (like AI+MEME). As for games, it's not that they are not chosen, but they might be a little behind.

What does the crypto market hype about? It often ultimately reflects on specific coins. So how to identify and judge the next tracks of crypto market hype? Look at the projects listed on Binance and the macroeconomic context in the U.S., as well as the main media reports in the U.S.

From 2022 to now, the most launched projects on Binance are public chains, Meme, L2, games, AI, DEFI (I don't want to write about this track, what's the matter, wanting to get rich quickly, aren't Meme and public chains enough to play with?), RWA, and DEPIN (showing potential). As for other tracks, it's still the same saying, wanting to get rich quickly, Meme, L1, games, AI, why aren't you seizing the opportunity?

In grasping the new narratives and tracks in the market, Binance is the industry's barometer, combined with Binance's liquidity support, this cannot be disputed.

More importantly, it's the information from the U.S. Without saying anything else, the rise of DOGE and PNUT says it all. So it must be paid attention to. As for SOL, don't forget this is a project created by U.S. powerful capital investment and market makers; actually, those like SUI, APT, OMNI, ALT, etc., are all.

Timing and choosing coins have been noted, getting on board is not difficult, but what about getting off? Any project must consider the market's broader context, the track it belongs to, the exchanges it is listed on (Binance, Coinbase, Upbit, OKX), the market makers involved (the nature of market makers), the ceiling of similar tracks, and the potential valuation based on the narrative of the track. No project can keep rising; there will always be corrections, even BTC is the same. The market is counterintuitive; FOMO-driven emotions are bad, very bad.

Thank you, DYOR.