The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is noisy, all for profit! Hello everyone, I am your friend Old Cui who talks about cryptocurrency, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. Welcome everyone's attention and likes, and refuse any market smoke bombs.
Yesterday, the market fluctuated little, so I took the opportunity to rest for a day. Although it was a break, replying to messages has become a necessity, and it was tiring enough. I had a good sleep. Currently, my mind is particularly clear, and the frequent market washes in the past few days have brought a lot of negative emotions. More friends are questioning the growth issues in the later stages, with particularly profound bearish thoughts about Bitcoin at the 100,000 mark or higher prices. This issue is based on questioning Bitcoin's value. Most friends actually have significant misconceptions about Bitcoin; some believe Bitcoin has enormous potential as a future currency, while others think Bitcoin is purely a bubble and will be worthless once it bursts. From Old Cui's perspective, both viewpoints are valid, because Old Cui's judgments about the future may not necessarily be accurate. Regarding the bubble aspect, recent USDT issuance, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, interest rate cuts, and Trump's endorsement have indeed brought rapid growth to Bitcoin.
Everyone can regard Bitcoin as an investment with financial attributes, which is always correct. Since it is a financial market, rapid development will definitely bring bubbles, but the depth of this bubble cannot be estimated. Bitcoin is different from other investment markets; it does not have a constant or a price reference. The initial hype was around digital gold, but now the hype is about currency with high-tech and future attributes. To call it currency may be somewhat radical because among the current powers, no major country recognizes its currency attributes; it is viewed solely from a financial perspective. Mentioning financial attributes means high risk, which in Old Cui's view makes the current trend belong to a speculative market. The explosive growth has created a huge bubble, which we must admit. Therefore, what we are doing now is exiting before the bubble bursts. We must maintain this line of thought and continue it. Overall direction has been shared too much with everyone; at least before Trump takes office next year, short positions will definitely not be able to enter. Even if there are significant declines, they can be let go.
Many friends regard Bitcoin as a constant standard for value investment. Everyone should be clear that the essence of virtual currency is decentralization, which means it will not be linked to any actual value. Thus, many friends have misunderstandings about the coin circle, making it difficult to understand the rules of operation without actual currency. The so-called value investment in everyone's eyes can refer to the story of a big player in A-shares, Guan Shanxiang. Before parting, a definition of value investment was made: value investment is dead. Since the US redefined the attributes of currency, the previously so-called value investment has been filled with lies and bubbles. The centralized market will definitely be more severe than the coin circle. Speaking generally, the final solution to almost all financial market violations is merely a few drinks. If we talk about actual value, how about Musk's net worth skyrocketing by over 600 billion? Nvidia becoming the world's most valuable company? Who created this series of bubbles? Almost all investment banks believe that in their vengeful surge, the bubble value exceeds 40%. However, the result cannot be changed; actual value is determined by the consensus of the majority. As long as the consensus is strong enough, any company or market can create miracles and even break previous historical highs.
This concept must be clear in everyone's mind. In the past two days, with the arrival of the weekend, there has indeed been a prevailing bearish sentiment. The more we reach this point, the more we must discard some unrealistic fantasies. What everyone needs to do is to think about it from the perspective of the market maker: what choices would you make regarding future trends? Knowing the influence of two major positive conditions on investment sentiment, do you really have enough courage to short the market? In short, any analyst urging everyone to short should be closely watched; check if they are shorting themselves, and whether their profits come from shorting or going long. There are too many analysts in the market who call for shorting while secretly going long. They dare not enter short positions themselves but want everyone to buy; ultimately, it is to gain a good reputation for having correctly predicted the market when the bears arrive. And this good reputation is not based on your profits in investments, but merely to satisfy their own competitive spirit! Especially the biggest good news is the issuance of Tether. It was previously mentioned that the Tether issuance would cause a short-term bubble. How this bubble will be burst is not something to consider at this stage; bubbles need time to expand, and bursting will be a decision for next year. Everyone must focus on going long. For those wanting to short, you can look at Ethereum. As long as Ethereum creates a high point, it will definitely be accompanied by a pullback of 50-100 points, and that short position can be captured.
Having said so much, I still want to report on Old Cui's current position management. Currently, Old Cui holds three Bitcoins, with an average entry price around 840,000. This was a purchase after exiting Ethereum, so the price is relatively high. Currently, there are 20 Ethereums held in the market, and the price of Ethereum is low, having been held in the market almost since before the bull market started, with an entry point around 2,200. The last to enter the market is SOL, which was acquired after getting rid of BNB, with an entry point around 201. The above is all of Old Cui's asset purchase situation. As for contracts, they have always been held in a short-term long position. Currently, on Binance, there is one Bitcoin held in a long position with a price around 67,800. There are two others on other platforms that have just entered the market, which may be seen as high from everyone's perspective. Old Cui entered around 99,000 and is currently averaging down to about 98,500. The current arrangement for contracts is to celebrate the arrival of 100,000 with everyone. The take-profit position is temporarily set at 100,123 due to the short-term approach, just to witness the arrival of 100,000. The most difficult-to-understand action is that when Ethereum was at a high point, Old Cui entered a short position, purchasing 50 contracts around 3,450, and expects to exit after today's fluctuations in the evening. The above is all of Old Cui's investment arrangements, and everyone can just treat it as a story, without any investment advice.
Old Cui's Summary: Through recent interactions with everyone, many friends have discussed the actual value investment of Bitcoin and whether it has long-term return value. Historically, the investment return rate of Bitcoin has indeed become the highest in history, but after 100,000, Old Cui prefers everyone to enter the market in a short-term manner. The current approach is to eat and drink well before reaching 100,000, and after 100,000, cut half of the profits that should be earned. It’s simple, moving forward, for example, if there is an increase of 10,000 points, everyone needs to hold with a profit of 5,000 points until finally losing the 5,000 points of profit, then you can stop investing, withdraw your profits, and leave. Currently, Old Cui's thinking is to look at 11, strive for 12, and aim for 13. After the 100,000 mark, Old Cui will seriously consider an exit plan and will notify everyone at that time. Overall, it still depends on the market's funding situation. Currently, there is no hesitation about the Tether's issuance at the 100,000 mark; we need to consider how to proceed afterward. For users who have not yet entered the market, you can think about it before entering. If you are unsure, you can directly ask Old Cui. At this stage, the downward depth will not be too large, so don’t scare yourself; holding on bravely will lead to profits!
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Old Cui's Words: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five steps, seven steps, or even a dozen steps ahead, while a novice can only see two or three steps. The master considers the overall situation, strategizes for the big trend, and does not focus on a single piece or territory, with the ultimate goal of winning the game. The novice, on the other hand, fights for every inch of land, frequently switches between long and short positions, and only cares about short-term gains, resulting in frequent troubles.
This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!
