I wish everyone prosperity!
Author: DC greater than C
This article analyzes the trends and launch times of BTC, ETH, SOL, and altcoin seasons in previous bull markets of 2021, 2023, 2024, as well as summarizes the grasp of the current and future altcoin market, with the full text exceeding 3,000 words. It requires a lot of patience to read, but you can scroll to the bottom to see the conclusion. I believe that reading it all will yield good rewards. Thank you all.
Having experienced the bull and bear cycles and witnessed the rise and fall of many tracks, the cryptocurrency market is like a stage of changing winds and clouds, full of infinite possibilities. Here, knowledge iterates endlessly; only by continuously learning can one keep up with the market rhythm and reap wealth within the range of understanding. As the saying goes, 'A day in the crypto world is a year in the human world.' This rapid iteration is precisely the unique charm of the crypto market. The views are for reference; if there are differences, welcome to discuss and exchange. Thank you (all K-line trends are based on weekly units)
From the end of 2020 to the first half of 2021, 519
As shown in the figure:
The first wave from 2020.10.5-2020.12.21: BTC surged significantly first, while ETH fluctuated and rose. In this phase, from the K-line perspective, ETH was indeed weak;
Second wave from 2020.12.28-2021.2.22: BTC surged and fluctuated, while ETH started a significant surge with slight fluctuations;
Third wave from 2021.3.1-2021.5.19: BTC fluctuated at high levels, and ETH started a significant main uptrend until 519 arrived, and then both fell together;
In the early stage, BTC surged greatly, and in the later stage, ETH surged greatly. Let's take a look at the trend of each altcoin track.
Platform tokens such as BNB, MX, HT, etc.: Launched a significant main uptrend from 2021.2.1, with prior fluctuations and rises. Meme track: DOGE was at the end of the first wave, and the second wave started a significant main uptrend. SHIB officially started its main uptrend in January 2021 after landing on Uniswap in August 2020, until 519 arrived;
Public chain track: Referencing SOL, AVAX, CHR, ADA, DOT, ATOM, FTM, ENJ, VET, etc., all started the main uptrend in the second wave on 2020.12.28. THETA, NEAR, INJ started in the mid to late first wave;
Games and metaverse track: Referencing AXS, MANA, SAND, etc., the first wave fluctuated and rose, and the second wave started a significant main uptrend;
DEFI: Referencing UNI, SUSHI, MKR, 1INCH, ALPHA, COMP, etc., all are the second wave; very few are from the first wave with fluctuating increases;
Other tracks: For instance, the very popular FIL at that time, and the old coin ETC, both only started the main uptrend in the third wave;
Summary
In this wave of main uptrend, BTC surged first, even reaching historical highs repeatedly, while ETH still fluctuated and rose until the later stage when ETH truly kept up with the rise, and then the various altcoin tracks began their successive main uptrends. The tracks listed here are not all; after all, the main tracks have seen significant rises, providing many opportunities to make money, especially MEME, L1, and games.
Note: Most of the projects here were launched on Binance in 2019-2020, like the crazy hype of the metaverse and games in 21, which basically launched on Binance in 2020, proving Binance's grasp of new narratives and new tracks in the market. As for public chains, this has always been a popular narrative for hype. MEME was the rise of DEX in 20. Plus, Musk's endorsements of DOGE and SHIB gradually made MEME popular.
The second main uptrend in the market from July 2021 to the end of 2021
From the chart, it can be seen that from July 2021 to November, the main uptrend of BTC and ETH almost overlapped and rose together. As for the previously mentioned altcoins' price increases, those who have experienced it should remember clearly.
Meme track: Although DOGE did not surge significantly in the second half, SHIB surged tenfold after 519, and many good projects have emerged in the Meme track, such as BABYDOGE, FLOKI, etc.;
Public chain track: In the second half, AVAX, SOL, CHR, ENJ, ADA, FTM, etc. all reached new heights;
Games and metaverse tracks: AXS, SAND, MANA, RACA, etc. have all reached new heights;
DEFI track: Basically went silent in the second half, with no new hype or rises;
Other tracks: For example, FIL, old coins ETC, BCH, etc., have no new hype or increases. Thus, the entire year of 2021 has ended;
Summary of the altcoin trends during the 2021 bull market:
Macroeconomic background: After the 20 elections, the entire year of 21 was a liquidity release cycle due to the pandemic; this was the largest liquidity release by the Federal Reserve since 08. In such a macro environment of easing and crazy liquidity, BTC rose from $10,000 in October 20 to nearly 7 times to $69,000, and ETH rose from $340 in October to more than 14 times to $4,870.
And what about altcoins? Was there really a general rise? In the first half of 21, before 519, there was indeed a general rise, but in the second half, many tracks went silent, directly starting to harvest market liquidity.
PS: Let’s see how friends define the general rise of altcoins in a bull market, with increases of 5-10 times and above 10 times. If we say that the general rise rate is about 70% or more, many friends would say, 'Is a bull market just 10 times profit? That's too little.' Okay, then if we define 30 times or more as a general rise for altcoins, I can clearly tell you that the general rise rate is at most 20%.
Only public chains, games, the metaverse, and memes are always the hype tracks. Then DEFI, in fact, there are many other less popular tracks that I haven't listed, such as music, fans, infrastructure, etc., basically at the peak or playing dead.
Moreover, the popular hype projects in public chains, games, the metaverse, and MEME basically launched on secondary markets in 19-20. Especially projects listed on Binance in 20, whether directly listed or via IEO. So are the projects that launched on Binance's second tier from 22-24 worth paying attention to? Don't rush; this will be mentioned later.
As for the bull market in the first half of 21, regardless of whether it's a big or small exchange project, how many are still alive now, do you remember, my friends? If you remember, you're probably stuck.
The third main uptrend from October 2023 to March 2024
As shown in the chart: From the chart, it can be seen that from October 2023 to March 2024, the main uptrend of BTC and ETH almost overlaps and rises together. And what about altcoins? After experiencing the bear market of 2022, new popular track projects have launched on major exchanges, such as AI, L2 of ETH, modular blockchain of LI, etc., while the heat of the metaverse has dissipated.
Let's take a look at the situation of public chains, L2, AI, games, and MEME. If we talk about the ranking of tracks with high price increases, it is: public chains = MEME > AI > games.
Old public chains: ETH, SOL, INJ, CKB need not be mentioned;
New public chains: SEI, TIA, SUI, TAO, NTRN, 5-10 times;
Meme: ORDI and SATS (BRC20's MEME), PEPE, WIF, BOME, BONK, FLOKI, 5-10 times and above;
AI: ARKM, WLD (related to AI, let's put it in the AI category for now);
5-10 times Games: PIXEL, PORTAL, XAI, ACE, etc., 50%-2 times;
Other tracks such as DEFI and infrastructure: PENDEL and ID, 5-10 times;
L2 of ETH: ARB, OP, STRK, have increased but not much; only METIS is doing well with 10 times;
Apart from the above other project tracks, the price increase is not much, and they are not the popular hype narrative tracks.
Summary
Macroeconomic background: After experiencing the interest rate hike cycle in 2022, the interest rate hike was paused in September 2023, along with the hype of BTC spot ETF and trading.
The liquidity that was previously released is now tightening, and at this time point, the market liquidity is limited, with limited funds concentrated in the main tracks, making it difficult to compare with 21. Therefore, it is almost impossible for all altcoin tracks to rise together. The enduring hype narrative still remains with public chains and MEME. As for games, I personally believe that the main reason is still the limited market liquidity, and the surge of SOL, the rise of memes on SOL, has taken away too much market liquidity.
Do you remember what I mentioned earlier? The altcoin projects that launched on Binance's second tier from 2022 to 2024 are worth paying attention to. The projects mentioned above, except for the old public chains, are basically projects that launched in 2022-2023 on major exchanges. So we need to seize this trading experience and see if it continues to hold true.
The market conditions from October 2024 to now (sharing my personal views on the macro background, BTC, ETH, SOL, and various altcoin tracks.)
As for the trends of BTC and ETH, I will not provide a chart since everyone is clear about the price increases of various altcoin projects.
So far, the only thing that has soared is MEME. Even among L1, SOL, SUI, and old public chains are performing well, while others are playing dead. The good news is that today, at the moment I am publishing this article, ETH seems to be starting to gain momentum.
Conclusion
Macroeconomic background: The interest rate cut cycle started in September 2024, coupled with Trump's friendly attitude towards crypto as the new president of the United States, the Q1 of next year may be approaching the end of the tightening cycle, along with the spot ETF. Although liquidity hasn't been released yet, it has finally shifted from tightening to easing, and the new four years are very much worth looking forward to.
The first wave is from now until Q1 next year, and then we will see if there will be a recession in the U.S. economy or other black swans. If so, it will be another 312, and then it will be a situation similar to 20-21. I will share specific details then.
If there is no recession in the U.S. economy and it soft lands, then there will be no 312, and the music will continue.
BTC, SOL, BNB, including the new public chain SUI, have already increased, driving the price increase in the MEME track, while other tracks are not moving much. As we analyzed earlier, we need ETH's push, and coincidentally, ETH is currently gaining momentum, seemingly starting the second wave. (As of the publication of this article, the market reaction is as I mentioned earlier, L1 is also exploding, which is a lasting hype narrative.)
Since ETH has started the second wave of increases, given the broader context, the probability of a general rise of all altcoin tracks is very high. However, if you want to pick a specific track that performs well, it is worth choosing: new and old public chains, MEME, L2 on ETH, and AI-related projects (like AI+MEME). As for games, it's not that they are not selected, but they may be a bit behind.
What is the hype in the crypto market? It often reflects on specific coins. So how do we find and judge the upcoming hype tracks in the crypto market? Look at the projects launched on Binance and the U.S. macroeconomic situation, as well as the reports from major U.S. media.
From 22 to now, the most launched track projects on Binance are public chains, MEME, L2, games, AI, DEFI (I don't want to write about this track, what's the deal, do you want to get rich quickly? Aren't MEME and public chains enough to play with?), RWA and DEPIN (showing signs), and as for other tracks, it's still the same saying: if you want to get rich quickly, MEME, L1, games, AI, how can you not seize the opportunity?
In grasping new market narratives and new tracks, Binance is the industry benchmark, and the liquidity support of Binance cannot be questioned.
More importantly, it is the information from the U.S. Without saying more, the price increases of DOGE and PNUT say it all. So it is essential to pay attention. As for SOL, don't forget this is a project created by excellent U.S. capital investment and market makers, and actually SUI, APT, OMNI, ALT, etc. are also.
Timing and selecting coins have been noted; getting in is not difficult, but getting out is. Any project must consider the macro background, the track it belongs to, the exchanges it is listed on (Binance, Coinbase, Upbit, OKX), the market makers (the nature of market makers), the ceiling of the same track, and the prospects of the track narrative to calculate possible valuations. No project can continuously surge; there must be a washout, even BTC is the same. The market is counterintuitive; emotional FOMO is not good, very bad.
Thank you, DYOR.
Written at the end
The above is not investment advice; it is based on past bull market experiences, and by understanding changes in the market, continuous learning, and enhancing market awareness, one can keep pace with market rhythms and gain wealth within the range of understanding. Market liquidity, market maker changes, project narrative changes, especially market hype expectations, etc., all require continuous learning and improvement. This market changes too quickly.
Friends need to enhance their understanding of the market and choose to seize opportunities. Luck can only win for a moment; strength is needed for sustainability, and wealth is a reward for understanding.
I hope we can all grasp this round steadily. Thank you all.
