Written by: Alvis
Currently, BTC has been fluctuating in a narrow range between $97,000 and $99,000 for 40 consecutive hours, as if it is ready to go, while the altcoin market shows no signs of waiting and quickly takes over as the focus.
According to Binance data, the prices of more than 1,240 tokens have soared, of which 758 have increased by more than 10%, showing a rare boom in the altcoin market. The center of this round of enthusiasm is undoubtedly Ethereum (ETH), Dogecoin (DOGE) and Ripple (XRP). They not only showed strong price performance, but also became the benchmark of the entire altcoin market, bringing rich returns to investors.
At the same time, the market has also welcomed more "surprises". Kraken has added 19 new tokens, including BNB and a series of meme coins, demonstrating the exchange's emphasis on the altcoin ecosystem. On the other hand, the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced his upcoming resignation, and the expectation of loosening policies has further boosted market confidence. Under this favorable situation, the altcoin market seems to have begun to lay the foundation for a larger round of prosperity.
However, does this mean that the "altcoin season" has officially begun? Looking back at the past bull market cycles, whenever Bitcoin's market share hit a high point and gradually fell back, altcoins often began to take over and dominate the market. At present, Bitcoin's market share is already at a relatively high level, and some funds have flowed to star assets such as ETH and DOGE. This trend seems to be sending a signal: the home court of altcoins may have quietly opened.
An unprecedented crypto market drama is about to begin. Let us deeply analyze the logic and future trends behind this weekend's frenzy.
BTC Price Heading Towards $127,000: Crazy Prediction or Inevitable Trend?
According to data from the gambling platform Kalshi, by December 31, there is an 85% chance that Bitcoin will reach or exceed $100,000, and a 9% chance of reaching $150,000. More aggressive market bets even believe that Bitcoin may break through $250,000. Based on the expectations of all parties, Kalshi's average forecast believes that Bitcoin may climb to $125,000 in early 2025.
This optimism quickly sparked heated discussions. Trader Kobeissi Letter commented on the X platform: "The prediction market is beginning to seriously consider the potential of Bitcoin to break through $100,000." He further described the numbers as "astonishing and bold."
Since reaching new highs in March 2024, Bitcoin prices have experienced almost no significant correction and have risen steadily. This unilateral move has led some analysts to suggest that the market may need a pullback to consolidate upward momentum, but the current market environment shows no signs of slowing down. The psychological barrier of $100,000 remains an important resistance level in Bitcoin's current cycle, and once it is breached, it will have a profound impact on market confidence.
On the other hand, the continued inflow of institutional funds is becoming the core driver of the market's rise. According to the weekly report (The Week Onchain) of the on-chain analysis company Glassnode, since the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETF, the ETF has absorbed more than 90% of the selling pressure of long-term holders (LTH). This shows that institutional demand has played a strong supporting role in the market. However, the report also warned: "As the level of unrealized profits continues to rise, we may see an increase in selling activity by long-term holders, and this selling pressure has exceeded the ETF's absorption capacity in the short term."
Data shows that in the five trading days ending November 22, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded the highest weekly capital inflow since its launch, with total assets under management (AUM) exceeding US$100 billion. This shows that institutional investors are not only continuing to increase their investment, but are also further strengthening Bitcoin's position as a long-term value reserve.
On the technical level, Bitcoin's upward momentum remains strong. Market sentiment, institutional capital inflows, and the driving force of ETFs have jointly built multi-level support. Although some voices believe that there is a possibility of short-term adjustments in the market, the medium- and long-term trends show that a breakthrough of $100,000 is just around the corner. Once it breaks through, the price target of $127,000 or even higher will become the next focus. For the future of Bitcoin, such predictions may no longer be "crazy", but are approaching reality.
Bitcoin's market share has peaked, and the alt season has begun
Previously, Marsbit had predicted that Bitcoin's market share may be close to the top at 62%, and the curtain of the copycat season is about to open. The market conditions in recent days seem to confirm this view. After reaching a high of 62%, Bitcoin's market share quickly fell back. As of press time, Bitcoin's market share has dropped to 58.5%.
Recommended reading: Bitcoin is approaching the 100,000 mark. Should you chase the rise of BTC or cover your position in altcoins?
Recommended reading: Bitcoin’s market share hits a new high. When will the altcoin market have an opportunity to rebound?
The current market trend shows that Bitcoin's dominance may have peaked, and the altcoin era is quietly approaching. As the "leader" of altcoins, Ethereum not only shows a strong mid- to long-term upward momentum driven by both technological upgrades and market sentiment, but is also seen as a key force leading the full outbreak of the altcoin season. As funds gradually flow from Bitcoin to more innovative projects, and as investors pay more attention to technology-based assets, Ethereum is at the forefront of a new round of market prosperity, and is likely to become the core engine that drives altcoins into a full-scale prosperity cycle.
Ethereum (ETH): The long-term value of smart contract platforms is emerging
As of press time, the price of Ethereum (ETH) is $3,460, up more than 46% in the past month, an extremely impressive performance. The market generally believes that Ethereum will usher in a more sustained upward trend in 2025 and become a force that cannot be ignored in the bull market.
Technical charts show that Ethereum is forming a three-year ascending triangle compression pattern, a typical bullish signal suggesting that its target price may reach $16,000. The optimistic expectations of technical analysis are supported by market fundamentals.
Ethereum remains the most used smart contract platform by transaction volume, and continued improvements in its functionality and efficiency, as well as upcoming Ethereum upgrades, will lay the foundation for prices to break through historical highs.
ETH/BTC quarterly returns
The flow of market funds has also created a favorable environment for Ethereum. After Bitcoin entered a high-level sideways phase, a large amount of funds began to gradually rotate from Bitcoin to Ethereum. This trend has led analysts to generally expect that ETH may return to its historical high before the end of the year.
In addition, Benjamin Cowen, CEO and founder of ITC Crypto, said in a post on the X platform on November 23 that according to historical data, Ethereum usually shows a positive quarterly return rate relative to Bitcoin in the early stages after Bitcoin halving. This pattern may provide further bullish signals for Ethereum prices in early 2025.
Dogecoin (DOGE): The continued explosion of meme culture
As of press time, Dogecoin (DOGE) is quoted at $0.46, up more than 16% in the past 24 hours. Binance data shows that DOGE spot trading volume has reached $3.5 billion, exceeding Bitcoin's $3.3 billion and Ethereum's $1.95 billion, showing its high popularity in the market.
This rise may be driven by news related to Musk. According to DogeDesigner, a Dogecoin UI designer who frequently interacts with Musk, he posted on the X platform: "Musk's Boring Company has accepted Dogecoin payments, and users can use DOGE tokens to book rides." Stimulated by this news, DOGE quickly rose 7.6% within an hour, and the price stabilized at around $0.46. CNN also reported that Boring Company has launched a service that supports DOGE payments, allowing customers to use Dogecoin to pay for rides in the Las Vegas transportation system Loop. This further strengthens the actual application scenario of DOGE as a payment tool.
From a technical perspective, Dogecoin has recently broken through the key resistance level of $0.43, and the target price range may expand to $0.65 to $1. Analysts believe that if the price of DOGE breaks through $0.73, it may hit a higher target in the first quarter of 2025.
On the monthly chart, DOGE follows a repeatable target trend based on Fibonacci lines. According to historical data, DOGE has risen by more than 732% in 2021 compared to 2018. According to the Fibonacci extension model, the expected target range for 2025-2028 is $2.90 to $3.60.
This strong upward expectation is highly consistent with DOGE's performance in previous bull markets. As a representative asset of meme culture, Dogecoin remains one of the most attractive investment targets in the current market due to its high popularity and continued expansion of practical applications.
Ripple (XRP): The full revival of the old currency
In the past month, Ripple (XRP) has performed brilliantly, becoming the best-performing asset among the top ten cryptocurrency tokens by market value, with a cumulative increase of more than 210%.
This strong performance is closely related to important developments in the regulatory field. On Thursday, Gary Gensler, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), announced that he would leave office on January 20, 2025, which is the inauguration date of President-elect Donald Trump. The news was seen by the market as a signal that Ripple's four-year legal battle with the SEC is coming to an end. Although the two parties seemed close to reaching a settlement as early as the summer of 2024, the SEC's appeal of the 2023 ruling extended the lawsuit again. The market generally speculated that this long-running dispute will only be truly over after Gensler and the current SEC leadership leave office. .
Gensler's resignation announcement quickly triggered a sharp rebound in the price of XRP. On Thursday night, the price of XRP was still hovering below $1.2, but it rose rapidly after the news was released, breaking through $1.4 on Friday and exceeding $1.6 earlier today, an increase of 35% in just a few days.
XLM has gained nearly 400% in the past two weeks
The strong performance of XRP has also led to the overall recovery of other established currencies. Stellar Lumens (XLM) is up nearly 400% in the past two weeks, while assets such as Litecoin (LTC) have also seen significant gains. The collective recovery of these old coins not only reflects the rising market sentiment, but also highlights the value of investors re-examining assets with solid technical foundations in a bull market.
As the dispute between Ripple and the SEC draws to a close, XRP has not only consolidated its market position as a veteran currency, but has also become a representative asset for rebuilding confidence in the crypto market. Along with the recovery of other veteran currencies, XRP's strong performance may indicate that more crypto assets will usher in a new round of glory in the next bull market.
Weekend Event Review: The “Double-Sided Effect” of Policies and Institutions
1. SEC high-level turmoil and expectations of policy relaxation
This week, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ushered in major personnel changes, with Chairman Gary Gensler and Commissioner Jaime Lizárraga announcing their resignations. Lizárraga announced on November 22 that he would step down on January 17, 2025, a few days before newly elected President Donald Trump begins his second term. Lizárraga began his SEC career in the 1990s and served as a senior adviser to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi for a long time.
At the same time, Gensler announced that he would resign as chairman of the SEC on January 20. This decision marks the possible end of his tough regulatory policy. During Gensler's tenure, the SEC took more than 100 enforcement actions against the crypto industry and remained hostile to blockchain and cryptocurrency technology. Although Gensler said in a statement that he was "proud of ensuring the best global level of capital markets," the market generally believes that his departure may bring more policy relaxation to the crypto industry.
2. Tornado Cash developer detention extension sparks controversy
The future of privacy-preserving technology is once again being tested. Tornado Cash developer Alexey Pertsev has been ordered by a court to remain in pretrial detention, a move that has raised concerns in the industry about the rights of privacy technology developers. In a post on X Platform on November 21, Pertsev expressed disappointment with the decision, saying that his detention affected his ability to prepare an appeal.
Regulators’ continued focus on Tornado Cash was already evident in 2022, when the protocol was sanctioned for alleged money laundering. However, usage of Tornado Cash has picked up significantly in the first half of 2024, with total deposits it accepted reaching $1.8 billion, a 45% increase from 2023. This growth reflects the resurgence of user demand for privacy protection technology, and also puts this type of technology in a dilemma between regulation and free development.
3. Allianz Germany increases stake in MicroStrategy by 1/4 of $2.6 billion convertible bonds
The change in attitude of traditional financial institutions has also become a highlight of this week. Allianz Group, the second largest insurance company in Europe, announced that it has purchased nearly a quarter of the $2.6 billion convertible bonds issued by MicroStrategy, accounting for about 24.75% of the total investment. This purchase behavior shows that institutional investors are increasingly interested in Bitcoin.
According to Bloomberg terminal data shared by anonymous analyst Petruschki on the X platform, the investment was made by multiple subsidiaries of Allianz, including Allianz Global Investors Luxembourg (14.34%), Allianz Global Inv Of America LP (6.64%), etc. This action marks the expansion of traditional financial institutions' interest in crypto assets and further injects optimism into the market.
4. Kraken adds 19 new tokens: an open signal for listing strategies
Kraken, the second largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, added 19 new tokens this week, including popular assets such as Binance platform coin BNB and TON, as well as multiple meme coins such as DOGS. This move is particularly noteworthy, especially since BNB was previously identified as a security by the SEC. This listing reflects Kraken's keen judgment on the policy relaxation and its forward-looking layout.
The types of tokens listed by Kraken this time cover a wide range, from platform coins to technical assets and sentiment-driven meme coins, responding to the diversified needs of the market. In particular, the concentrated listing of meme coins shows Kraken's strategic advantage in capturing market sentiment fluctuations. Analysts pointed out that the listing of BNB may not only attract Binance users, but also be an important attempt to gain a market share in platform coins.
This move may signal a shift in the industry, pushing more exchanges to follow similar strategies. In the future, as the policy environment becomes clearer, the trend of exchanges opening up to listing coins is expected to increase market liquidity and inject new growth momentum into the altcoin ecosystem.
The bull market begins, and a new era is about to begin
Bitcoin is making steady progress on its way to $100,000, and the altcoin market is experiencing a full recovery. The dual support of favorable policies and institutional funds has injected continuous momentum into this market carnival. From the technological wave led by Ethereum, to the payment revolution set off by Dogecoin, to the regulatory breakthrough of Ripple, each favorable factor is paving a new track for the future of the entire crypto market.
What is even more exciting is that the change in the US regulatory environment has freed up more room for imagination in the market. The capital inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs hit a new high, and the asset management scale of more than 100 billion US dollars confirmed the recognition of institutional investors on the prospects of the crypto market. The opening of exchange strategies has also opened the door for more high-quality projects to enter the mainstream market.
With the resonance of policy relaxation, technological breakthroughs and capital inflows, when all the positive factors gradually converge, the curtain of the bull market is slowly opening, and a new era belonging to the crypto market is quietly approaching.
