$TROY
Based on the latest chart, I analyze the possibility of a fake pump as follows:
1. Signs of a Fake Pump (about 80% chance):
a) Regarding price and volume:
- Volume spikes in the last candles
- Appearance of a long red candle with large volume (sign of sell-off)
- Price increases too quickly in a short time
b) Technical indicators:
- RSI still at a very high level (82.25)
- STOCH RSI reaches peak (95.44)
- MA9 has crossed above MA20 too far, creating a large gap
2. Short Strategy:
a) Entry points:
- The range 0.00540-0.00550 is a safe short zone
- Stop loss: 0.00570-0.00580
- Targets:
* T1: 0.00500
* T2: 0.00480
* T3: 0.00460
b) Conditions for entry:
- Wait for a red candle confirmation with large volume
- Appearance of negative divergence on RSI
- Volume begins to decline
3. Important notes:
a) Risks to watch out for:
- Could be an accumulation phase before the next pump
- Easily manipulated in the current price range
- Volume is still increasing so it's not advisable to short immediately
b) Risk management:
- Only use 30-40% of capital
- Split orders (2-3 orders)
- Maximum leverage 2x
- Be ready to cut losses if breaking the 0.00580 zone
4. Scenarios to monitor:
a) Continued pump scenario:
- If it holds above 0.00550 with stable volume
- RSI may test 70 and then increase again
- Do not short if you see this signal
b) Dump scenario:
- Volume spikes accompanied by red candles
- RSI creates a lower peak
- MACD starts to show negative divergence
Summary:
- Many signs of a fake pump
- However, need to wait for clear confirmation before shorting
- Risk management is the top priority
- Prepare entry points and stop loss before acting