Although Bitcoin is close to 100,000, this is also a Bitcoin bull market, while a small portion of altcoins are bullish. Overall, altcoins have not yet reached a big bull market. It will take some time for that. Currently, the market's rapid rise and fall has not yet appeared, and it is all a general rise. Once the greed index exceeds 92, we should consider the risk of a correction. At this time, trading needs to be cautious, looking at next week's data to decide on the subsequent market trends, such as monitoring the inflow and outflow of Bitcoin ETFs in the US.
Altcoins have this weekend and next three days as their performance window for opportunities. If there is no pump, we can only wait for the next cycle. Some flagship altcoins in the Sol sector have already been washed in advance.
During this period, I have repeatedly reminded to take profits at highs and pay attention to risks.
Recently, new coins like ACT and PNUT have fallen sharply, reminding me of the golden pit of the DeFi era. Back then, in September and October 2020, the market was hit hard, especially DeFi projects represented by UNI, which were directly criticized. However, the first wave of the bull market ultimately started from the DeFi sector. Trends are worth believing in.
As long as there are ongoing hotspots on-chain that create a wealth effect, large funds in the secondary market will pull benchmark projects, and once secondary funds lead the trend, more hot money will flood in on-chain to chase the next wealth effect. This relationship is a mutually beneficial cycle.
Do you remember when UNI, SUSHI, and YFI plummeted, yet new DeFi projects kept emerging on-chain? The current situation is similar. No matter how the new meme coins in exchanges fall, on-chain activities are still vibrant.
Next, funds will choose which track to pull out trends first, the answer is actually very obvious. Only after the first wave of trends is completed will it be other narratives' turn to appear. Just like in the last round, NFT, Metaverse, and GameFi projects were all waiting for DeFi to finish before they started performing.
The question everyone is concerned about now is not whether Bitcoin can stabilize at 100,000 but whether it will correct after such a high increase.
From the recent on-chain data, within 24 hours, Bitcoin has continued to flow out of exchanges. Binance saw over 10,000 Bitcoin flow out from yesterday to today, while stablecoins are still flowing into exchanges.
From now until January next year when Trump takes office, everything will go up because the expectations are here. We have previously mentioned that the US has made Bitcoin a strategic reserve, leading other countries to follow suit; other countries will also buy.
In addition, many listed companies will also buy, for example, giants like Microsoft need to decide whether to enter the Bitcoin market within a month.
Next year, Bitcoin reaching a stable 100,000+ is not a problem and is not surprising!
If Bitcoin cannot rise, then altcoins will. Don't worry about altcoins falling; just control your segment profits. According to historical patterns, the altcoin season starts seven months after each halving, and Bitcoin's dominant position begins to collapse.
The next halving will be in April, so seven months later will be November to December. Altcoins will rise sharply and violently, but it will also be quick.
Many brothers who missed the opportunity did not layout in advance and tried to catch up, having to hang at the mountain top. I have previously reminded everyone that if you want to layout while in cash, it’s best to wait for a correction and then buy when the price comes down.
You can find good targets and slowly add back your position. You must buy and patiently wait for a surge.
Regarding the later stage, after Bitcoin officially breaks through 100,000 USD, it will begin a 20% reduction plan. Even from the perspective of the bull market cycle, Bitcoin may still reach new heights; just reduce it slowly in batches. At this stage, Bitcoin no longer has the cost-performance advantage of bottom-fishing.
As for the old altcoins, BCH has broken through 500 USD, LTC is heading towards 100 after cross-sector movements, and XRP, TRX, and ADA are catching up. ATOM also briefly surged. If we have no misconceptions about the current bull market environment, then we should not doubt the logic that our coin assets will return to high levels and make a proper profit.
Which coin will be the next new high?
The secondary market is very fragmented now, most altcoins lack narrative and consensus. Old stories have been told for years without conclusion. The current secondary market has reached a time for 'value investing', only those coins with truly good fundamentals, whether meme or application coins, have the opportunity to continue following this bull market. Sol is a very good example.
From this perspective, BNB will be the next public chain to quickly reach new highs.
Additionally, DOGE, Dogecoin, has seen a significant influx of huge funds under the support of the current Musk trend. I currently believe that Dogecoin is also the next coin that can reach new highs.
Every round of the bull market has some common characteristics.
1. In the early stage of the bull market, Bitcoin will slowly rise, standing out and driving Ethereum up. At this time, some good mainstream coins will follow, while other coins slowly rise, and a few altcoins will soar. This round, like the meme and AI sectors and the Sol ecosystem, most altcoins are relatively quiet.
2. The mid-term of the bull market sees Bitcoin and Ethereum oscillating upwards, mainstream coins begin to gain momentum, and a large number of altcoins start to slowly activate.
3. In the late stage of the bull market, Bitcoin oscillates downwards, and Ethereum, as the leading altcoin, may continue to surge. Mainstream coins will follow suit, and the next round of bull market will see altcoins soar by several times, even dozens or hundreds of times.
So, what stage are we in now? It is obvious that we are in a transition between the first and second stages. Many people holding value coins may not be able to outperform Bitcoin and Ethereum, nor catch up to Dogecoin, frogs, etc. Some have even doubled, feeling anxious and even unable to sleep at night, thus chasing highs and killing lows, frequently switching positions. The end result is that although they have experienced a bull market, others have made a lot of money while they themselves have lost everything.
What I want to tell everyone is that this is very normal; every bull market has been like this. Choose your targets wisely and hold on! Don't switch vehicles; the wheel of fortune turns, and it will have its time to shine!
