The price of Bitcoin soared, successfully breaking the $99,000 mark, igniting enthusiasm across the entire cryptocurrency market. Established altcoins also performed well, particularly Ripple (XRP). According to Bitget data, on November 22, XRP broke through 1.4 USDT, currently quoted at 1.416 USDT, with an increase of over 30% within 24 hours.
Compared to the highly watched meme coin market, the rise of established altcoins seems much more understated, yet they are gradually attracting investor attention with a steady and solid growth trend.
Kaiko's data also shows that as of November 18, the weekly trading volume of altcoins has surpassed $300 billion for the first time since 2021. Among them, the trading volume of DOGE, XRP, SOL, and PEPE accounted for 60% of the total.
Since November, XRP's performance has been stunning: it rose from around $0.5 to a peak of $1.435, an increase of 182.4%, reaching a new high in over three years. Meanwhile, other established altcoins have also performed well, with ADA rising from $0.33 to $0.9, an increase of nearly 170% this month; XLM surged from $0.09 to $0.294, with an increase of over 220%. These data indicate that established altcoins seem to be gradually shaking off their previous sluggishness and regaining attention through actual market performance.
If this trend continues, the revival of established coins and the activity of hot tokens are likely to intertwine, and the market may welcome a broader 'altcoin season'.
Gary Gensler is about to step down, regulatory easing may bring a turning point.
The recent strong rise of XRP is driven by multiple factors, and the shift in market sentiment is undoubtedly one of the most direct drivers.
Looking back at July 13 of this year, the court ruled that the sale of XRP on digital trading platforms does not fall under the definition of securities, granting Ripple a partial victory. However, the court also ruled that XRP sold to institutional investors constitutes unregistered securities and ordered Ripple to pay a civil penalty of $125.0351 million. Subsequently, on October 3, the U.S. SEC appealed the ruling, emphasizing that the district court's decision conflicts with securities law and relevant precedents set by the Supreme Court.
However, following Trump's victory in the election, the market holds optimistic expectations that regulatory stances may ease. On November 22, the SEC's official website announced that current chairman Gary Gensler will step down on January 20, 2025. This news has sparked speculation in the market that future regulatory lawsuits against companies like Ripple may ease, or even end in settlements or dismissals.
For a long time, Gary's tough stance on the crypto industry, especially the strict regulation of Ripple, has placed XRP under dual pressure from legal and market sides. Now, the regulatory environment may change, bringing an opportunity to reassess XRP's value.
Market data reflects high investor enthusiasm.
According to CoinGlass data, the current open interest (OI) of XRP futures is close to $2.44 billion, setting a new historical high. This indicator is typically used to measure market activity and investor sentiment, showing that market speculation on XRP is at an unprecedented high. Open interest represents the number of active contracts that have not yet settled, indicating that more investors are betting on XRP's future trend.
In summary, XRP is attracting investor attention with a stronger posture under the multiple benefits of legal progress, market sentiment, and trading data. The overall recovery of established altcoins also adds more possibilities to the crypto market.
Major institutions are actively laying out the ETF market, especially for XRP-related ETF products.
Bitwise officially submitted an XRP ETF application on October 2, a fact confirmed by a spokesperson for the company. According to its S-1 registration document submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the trust's XRP assets will primarily be stored in cold storage, with some assets transferred to hot storage only when necessary to facilitate the creation and redemption process more efficiently.
A week later, the crypto investment firm Canary Capital also submitted a registration application for the 'Canary XRP ETF' to the SEC. This ETF plans to offer investors an indirect way to hold XRP, while using CME's CF Ripple index as a price benchmark. Its founder, Steven McClurg, stated that this application was driven by improvements in the regulatory environment and the growing demand for diversified crypto assets from investors.
On October 16, Grayscale Investments also announced its application to the SEC, planning to transform its existing Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) into an ETF. As of the end of September, Bitcoin accounted for 74.7% of this fund, Ethereum 18.55%, with the rest including SOL, XRP, and AVAX. Prior to this, Grayscale had successfully converted its Bitcoin and Ethereum funds into ETF products.
Then on November 2, 21Shares also followed up with an ETF application for the '21Shares Core XRP TRUST', further intensifying the competition for XRP ETFs.
From these applications, it can be seen that market attention towards XRP is gradually heating up. This not only reflects investors' optimism about its potential but also indicates that Ripple's phased victory in its legal dispute with the SEC is dispelling market doubts about XRP's legality. Against the backdrop of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs being approved one after another, the wave of XRP ETFs is undoubtedly another milestone in the development of the crypto industry.
Can altcoins welcome a revival?
The CMC cryptocurrency altcoin season index is a real-time indicator used to analyze whether the market has entered a period dominated by altcoins. It is based on the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin over the past 90 days, providing clear charts and data to track market trends.
From the current data, the altcoin season index is 27/100, indicating that the market is still dominated by Bitcoin, and the influence of altcoins has not fully risen. However, the changes in data over the past week are intriguing. The altcoin season index has gradually climbed from a low point on the 17th and jumped significantly to 28 on the 21st, which may suggest that investor interest in altcoins is gradually recovering.
Although the current index is still far from the annual high of 50, it has shown a significant rebound compared to the low of 13 at the beginning of this month. This flow of funds may indicate that the market is gradually shifting from mainstream assets like Bitcoin to the altcoin sector. In particular, the strong performance of established altcoins like XRP and ADA recently has provided a boost to this trend.
At the same time, the market capitalization of altcoins is also slowly growing. Although the growth rate is not enough to fundamentally change the market landscape, the steady upward trend suggests that market sentiment is undergoing subtle changes. Investors seem to be starting to re-evaluate the potential value of altcoins and gradually shifting their focus from Bitcoin to these assets.
If this upward trend can be maintained and continue to stabilize in the coming weeks, the market may indeed see the official onset of the altcoin season. However, currently, the performance of the Top 100 altcoins over the past 90 days shows that meme coins still occupy a place in the market due to their high speculation and strong social heat, a position that may be difficult to shake in the short term.
