Just now, when I was in the restroom and not checking my phone, I suddenly remembered a viewpoint. For us short-term or even ultra-short-term traders, is this big bull beneficial or more of a disadvantage? I began to meditate on this question.
First, let's say the conclusion: I believe this wave of bull market is a devastating blow to ordinary players. If you guess wrong, you suffer; if you guess right, you can't hold on. Can you really make money like this? Five thousand points in a day, ten thousand points in a market directly drives people mad.
Bringing my thoughts back to ten days ago, with a big coin around sixty thousand, we basically entered with a 5% position and 100x leverage. Our target profit was around two thousand plus, and stop loss was over a thousand. I looked for pressure support levels and could have taken bigger risks. I could even have heavily invested, calculating the position to control the maximum loss at five thousand points. I did indeed multiply my position several times, but currently, support and resistance cannot serve as indicators; I can only enter with light positions, 2% or 3% entries. Occasionally, if a new high is confirmed, I might go in with 5%, and the defense should be based on the win rate calculated from the orders, ensuring it’s solid.
Xiao Shuai, who just entered the crypto circle, started off by listening to news, relying on feelings, playing concepts, chasing highs and cutting losses. He gradually stepped into this circle and then learned to look at MACD indicators, KDJ values, and death crosses to analyze. Perhaps by chance, I guessed right a few times and started to feel like a prodigy, leading to big positions. From our observer's perspective, it was like dancing on the edge of death, until I blew my account and began a new cycle.
This time, Xiao Shuai has learned from previous lessons and has now found a master to learn how to analyze moving averages, look at the main funds and trading volume, and start to grasp the psychology of the main players. When I see performance growth, I chase it to the peak; when bad news is exhausted, it’s good news. After good news is released, the main players take the opportunity to sell, and major shareholders reduce their holdings. I feel the convenience of going with the trend. I observe patterns (head and shoulders as well as W tops), and I find that my analysis aligns with the market, enjoying the joy of learning. So I began to study various theoretical plays. However, I still don't quite understand how to identify trends and don't know that the same patterns have different uses in different environments, so I started to lose money again.
I began to listen to many bloggers talk about wave theory, Cheng theory, and trend trading methods. It seems like I learned something but didn’t fully grasp it. It was another day of heavy losses. At this time, Xiao Shuai realized that my theoretical knowledge was a bit solid but still ended up losing heavily. Later, I turned into a master form, which we refer to as an old oil bar, an old leek. Playing with a tiny fraction of assets in crypto, often pointing out the situation and writing passionately, treating the past like dirt, and pouring toxic chicken soup to mislead retail investors.