I. Technical analysis and trend judgment
Through comprehensive analysis of candlestick charts and technical indicators, BTC's recent trend is still in a fluctuating downward trend. The following are specific observations:
Intraday technical indicator interpretation
Moving average system
MA7 and MA30 show a clear bearish arrangement, short-term prices are under heavy pressure, and lower support is gradually weakening, indicating a bearish market sentiment.
Yesterday, multiple attempts to break the MA7 moving average were unsuccessful, indicating significant selling pressure above.
Volume analysis
Trading volume has continued to shrink over the past two days, with limited rebound strength, slightly favoring bearish forces, and adjustment pressure still exists in the short term.
MACD indicator
The hourly MACD double line is below the 0 axis, DIF and DEA continue to diverge downwards, and the green momentum bar increases, suggesting that prices still have room to decline.
The 4-hour line shows that bearish signals still dominate, with short-term upward momentum lacking.
Bollinger Bands channel
The current price is close to the lower Bollinger Band, and although there are signs of support in the short term, the probability of a breakdown is high.
The middle Bollinger Band position (about 99000) is an important resistance area, and breaking through it can change the current weak pattern.
Key resistance and support
Resistance level
First resistance: 99000 (near MA7).
Second resistance: 99500 (yesterday's high point).
Support level
First support: 98000 (near the lower Bollinger Band).
Second support: 97500 (recent key defense line).
Psychological barrier
If it falls below 97500, it may further test the 96000 area, and market panic may intensify.
Yesterday's market review
Yesterday BTC attempted to break 99500 but failed, repeatedly testing the MA7 moving average without stabilizing, forming a long upper shadow, indicating clear selling pressure. Additionally, although the overall volatility has increased, the trading volume has not expanded accordingly, showing a lack of market confidence.
II. Operational suggestions
The current market remains weak, it is recommended to mainly short on rallies, while appropriately positioning light long positions in support areas to respond flexibly.
Short position strategy
Entry range: 98700-99000 (close to the MA7 moving average resistance).
Target level:
First target: 98000
Second target: 97500
Stop loss level: 99300 (to prevent stop loss triggered by short-term oversold rebounds).
Long position strategy (aggressive)
Entry range: 97500-97800 (Bollinger Band lower support area).
Target level: 98500 (first target).
Stop loss level: 97000 (to avoid breaking risk).
Position and risk control recommendations
Control position, it is recommended to hold a short position of 20-30%, and a light long position of less than 10%.
Stop loss and take profit must be strictly enforced to avoid unnecessary losses caused by sudden market changes.
III. Summary and future expectations
Short-term trend:
Bears dominate, the probability of further price declines is high, but if trading volume does not expand simultaneously, the decline may be limited.
Short-term market may fluctuate in the range of 97500-99000, if a strong breakdown occurs, be wary of the possibility of dropping to 96000.
Future observation points:
Key support area
Whether the 97500 area support stabilizes will determine BTC's short-term rebound or further decline.
If the price forms a 'double bottom' pattern, the probability of a rebound will significantly increase.
Volume changes
Observe whether trading volume expands simultaneously, as volume is a key factor in judging trend continuation or reversal.
Signs of bearish force weakening
Whether MACD forms a low-level golden cross and how strong the Bollinger Band's lower support is will become a sign of the shift in bullish and bearish forces.
BTC is currently still in a weak fluctuating market, mainly short positions with secondary long positions. Close attention should be paid to the effectiveness of support at 97500 and key technical indicator changes, waiting for further signal guidance. Maintain a flexible response, and avoid heavy positions in chasing highs and cutting losses. This article's insights are hoped to provide value to your investments. Follow Lao Tan for timely updates on the latest market dynamics and professional analysis to make your investments more precise!
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