Original author: Yue Xiaoyu
ETH has been sluggish for a long time, so we still need to give everyone a psychological massage.
One view of the reason for ETH's long-term slump is that it is now in the stage of changing bankers. Wall Street's large financial institutions are becoming new bankers and gradually taking over the bargaining chips of the previous wild bankers.
We can also get this verification from the data: In the past year, the market share of the top 100 currency-holding addresses has been on an upward trend, currently reaching 66%. Especially after the ETH ETF was approved for listing, there was a significant increase.
This shows that the concentration of ETH is actually getting higher and higher. The top addresses have been buying, but the price of ETH has not increased. What does it mean?
On the one hand, it shows that the dealers are always there and continue to attract funds; on the other hand, it shows that there are a lot of changes of hands in the market. Not only are retail investors losing chips, but these top addresses are also changing hands internally, that is, the dealers are changing hands.
You must know that ETH and BTC are the only two tokens with ETFs, and ETH has a very big advantage over BTC: staking income.
Once the ETF starts staking returns or even re-stakes, the currency-based risk-free return of at least 3% a year is actually very good, especially compared with traditional financial products.
This is ETH’s unrealized potential and its greatest potential benefit.
Naturally, traditional financial institutions will not let go of this piece of cake, and have strong will and motivation to become the new village of ETH.
However, ETH has been the main narrative in the two rounds of bull and bear before. Naturally, there are more long-term holders and the chips are more dispersed. Therefore, it will take a long time for the chips to change hands, and it needs to be fully washed.
Therefore, it is necessary to suppress the price of ETH for a long time and make previous long-term holders lose their chips, such as SOL, which is a popular exchange, so that the chips can be concentrated in the hands of new bookmakers.
Only after Xinzhuang has collected enough funds will it have the motivation to increase the price of ETH.
This is a conspiracy.
Therefore, don’t throw away the truly valuable chips in your hands, that is, BTC and ETH. Only by getting through this long and painful wash can you get the long-term gains you really want.
Who is the new bookmaker? When will the washing be completed?
Everyone is unhappy with the 99,000 Bitcoins, and the 3,200 Ethereum retail investors are all excited, which shows that most retail investors do not have Bitcoins in their hands. The Ethereum car is still too heavy and has not yet driven most people off.
I have been nursing this for so long and comforting myself for so long. If Ethereum really fails to rise this round and becomes a new generation of "EOS", I just want to say: If V God does not apologize, I will beat you every time I see you. .
Regarding the "Ethereum exchange theory", it has triggered many discussions among many staunch ETH holders and staunch opponents. Here are some additional thoughts:
1. Who is Xinzhuang?
In this wave of reshuffles, the wild bankers of the industry’s old OGs (those who were involved in the original ICO) have become regular bankers of Wall Street financial institutions, and national-level bankers may also appear in the future.
But Teacher TVBee provided a new idea: when switching from pow to pos, you must change the banker. It turns out that the mining pool has no sustainable profit model, so it doesn’t want to pull the market. New mining pools may enter the market, but they have not yet mastered enough chips, let alone pulling the trigger. But when it fell, eth didn't fall too much because Xinzhuang took over from the bottom.
In other words, after Ethereum is converted to POS, the banker of the old POW miner is mainly replaced by the banker of the new POS miner.
However, Ethereum was successfully upgraded in September 2022, with more than a year of bear market in between. Why was there not sufficient change of hands during the bear market stage?
On the contrary, ETH will be sluggish in 2024, especially after the adoption of ETF, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has been falling all the way, so it may not be the bankers who exchanged POW for POW, but the ICO old man who exchanged it for Wall Street bankers.
2. Regarding the theory of Ethereum exchange for dealers, is it a story you tell yourself?
There have been many signals in the market, such as the approval of the previous ETF, the expectation of staking now, the increase in holdings of the top addresses, etc. These are objective bullish information.
In general, the fundamentals of ETH have not changed, and it is still the source of many innovations; and with the support of ETF, ETF has the benefit of unreleased staking; in addition, the head address is increasing its holdings, how can it be handed over at this time? Offer chips?
3. There are indeed many advantages, but we must also face up to some problems of Ethereum:
Compared with Bitcoin, Ethereum is not recognized enough by outsiders, so they will only notice Ethereum after traditional financial institutions have fully allocated Bitcoin and then look for new opportunities;
Compared with other Layer 1 public chains, especially Solana, the biggest problem of ETH is that it pays too much attention to the infrastructure layer and insufficient development of the application layer.
In particular, the trend of de-C (separating from C-end users) has caused the narrative of Ethereum to be further and further away from the actual needs of ordinary users. Naturally, how can ordinary users hold ETH? The ETH ecosystem needs a killer application.
Among them, it is very critical to solve the liquidity fragmentation through L2 interoperability. The biggest problem with Ethereum leading a group of L2 guys to fight in groups is that this group of L2 is loose, which not only leads to poor user experience, but also disperses liquidity.
Therefore, L2 interoperability is particularly important, and some solutions have indeed emerged, such as chain abstraction.
4. Engraved Sol to ask for the sword
Comparing with Solana, Sol's banker change stage happened after the FTX incident, but ETH currently does not have a big negative to wash out many people. It can only use time to exchange space, so ETH's banker change is a long washout.
Someone asked: Are there any disadvantages of Solana compared to Ethereum?
Solana is a performance-enhanced version of Ethereum, which improves performance and sacrifices decentralization and security.
When everyone mentions Solana, they only think of it as a very fast Ethereum currency.
The consensus, ecology, and community owned by Ethereum are all implicit moats.
To put it simply, you can no longer beat WeChat with a smoother WeChat, nor can you beat Ethereum with a better-performing Ethereum.
Market competition only involves dimensionality reduction, and there is no parallel replacement.
Solnana did not cause a dimensionality reduction blow to Ethereum. This is the original "shortcoming".
5.ETH’s car is too heavy
ETH has the drive to wipe out all small traders and mid- to long-term market makers. The main reason is that ETH is too heavy and too many people are optimistic about it. Without big negatives, most of them can only be wiped out through a long period of washing. People wash cars.
Most retail investors don't have a big pie, but they basically have ether.
Everyone wants higher excess returns, but looks down upon the "stable" returns of Bitcoin. They choose the second pie, which seems to have more room, between the big pie and the second pie. This makes the second pie's car heavier, and ultimately causes the current situation.
6. The exchange rate of ETH/BTC has gone from 0.05 before to 0.03 now. Will it continue to decline in the future?
The cryptocurrency industry is bullish and bearish. The bull market in a cycle only lasts for more than a year. In addition, this bull market started early. If it continues, the bull market will be gone, so the chance is very small.
7. Someone asked: Why didn’t ETH slowly change hands when the price was low before, but now it’s up and changing hands here?
One reason may be that the ETH ETF was adopted too quickly, exceeding market expectations. At the time, many believed that it would not be approved until at least the second half of 2024. This caused the price of ETH to rise rapidly at that time, but the exchange of hands was insufficient.
8. Can Teacher Sun Yuchen be replaced in this wave?
All I can say is, big cutting is still big cutting, it will always be there. Who can cut off Brother Sun? You must know that Justin Sun has 700,000 ether coins, which is worth US$2.1 billion at a price of US$3,000. If Sun Yuchen had to wash his car, it would take a very long time.
9. There are so many people fud Ethereum in the market, do you want to change positions?
I can only say that I have to hold on even if I cry. I have held it for so long and it has been held in a bear market. The sunk cost is too high. If you change positions at this time, it is very likely that you will fall before dawn.
10. When will Ethereum explode the altcoin season?
It can only be said that you can’t guess the time, but you can see the trend.
Just like we can’t guess what the temperature will be tomorrow, but we can feel the seasonal change that winter is coming.
(The above content is excerpted and reprinted with the authorization of our partner PANews, original text link | Source: Yue Xiaoyu)
Statement: The article only represents the author's personal views and opinions, and does not represent the objective views and positions of the blockchain. All contents and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and transactions, and the author and Blockchain Client will not be held responsible for any direct or indirect losses caused by investors' transactions.
"Why can't Ethereum go up?" Because ETH is in the "change of banker" stage." This article was first published on (Block Guest).
