Technical analysis BTC/USDT - 4-hour chart
1. Short-term trend (4-hour chart):
The analysis of the BTC/USDT chart in the 4-hour time frame shows a moderate bullish trend, with the price moving between key levels. However, recent movements suggest a slowdown in bullish momentum, indicating that a correction could be near. The price has reached the psychological resistance of $99,000-$100,000, with a slight deceleration in volume, confirming that the bullish movement may be losing strength in the short term.
The current price is just below the main resistance of $100,000, and the Bollinger Bands show that it is near the upper range, which usually indicates overbought conditions. The short-term trend remains positive, but the indicators suggest that a correction or consolidation could be imminent before continuing the rise.
2. Key supports and resistances:
Relevant resistance: $99,000 - $100,000. This zone acts as a key psychological resistance, coinciding with the upper range of the Bollinger Bands, reinforcing its importance. Selling pressure is accumulating here, as seen in the order book.
Immediate support: $96,000. The support is around the lower line of the Bollinger Bands, which also coincides with the average value of the simple moving average (SMA). This area represents a crucial level for the price, which could retrace towards this point before resuming the bullish movement.
Secondary support: $91,000 - $92,000. In the event of a deeper correction, this area could serve as a major support, acting as a price revaluation zone.
3. Technical indicators analysis:
Bollinger Bands (BB):
Average value (SMA): $96,184.53
Upper range: $101,187.17
Lower range: $91,181.89
Currently, the price is near the upper range of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that BTC could be in overbought territory. The price could experience a correction towards the average of the Bollinger Bands around $96,000, which would act as a dynamic support before a potential bullish rebound.
EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of 9 periods:
Current value: $98,209.60
The 9-period EMA shows that the price continues to be above this moving average, confirming that the short-term trend remains bullish. However, the distance between the price and the EMA is decreasing, which could indicate a loss of momentum in the bullish movement, suggesting that there may be a short-term pullback.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Current value: 67.08
The RSI is in the neutral-high zone, close to 70, indicating that the asset is close to entering overbought territory. This increases the likelihood that the price will experience a correction in the short term. An RSI above 70 would confirm a clearer overbought condition.
Stochastic RSI:
Values: %K = 67.97, %D = 58.40
The Stochastic RSI shows that %K is crossing %D from above, which is a bearish signal for short-term reversal. This crossover could confirm the correction towards lower levels, such as the support at $96,000.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
MACD line: 84.17
Signal line: 84.17
The MACD does not show a clear bearish crossover, but the distance between the MACD line and the signal line is decreasing, indicating a loss of bullish momentum. This may suggest a slowdown in movement and a possible short-term correction.
4. Order book analysis:
Key zones detected:
High resistance zone: $100,000 with an accumulated volume of 1,254.95 BTC. This level is crucial for BTC to continue its ascent. The high concentration of sell orders at this level suggests that any attempt to overcome this barrier could be complicated without a significant increase in volume.
Strong support zone: $97,000 with a volume of 153.18 BTC. If the price retraces, this level could act as reliable support. The buying demand in this area is significant.
Supply and demand distribution:
Demand: The largest buy orders are concentrated at $97,000 and $95,000, suggesting that these levels could halt a pullback before the price tests the resistance at $100,000 again.
Supply: The largest sell orders are at $100,000 and $99,500, indicating considerable selling pressure at those levels. If the price cannot overcome this area, we are likely to see a correction towards the support levels.
5. Possible operation:
Scenario 1: Possible correction towards $96,000
1. Entry:
If the price begins to retrace towards the support at $96,000 (lower line of the Bollinger Bands), a long entry could be considered at this level.
2. Target (Take Profit):
Target 1: $99,000, an intermediate level between $96,000 and the resistance at $100,000.
Target 2: $100,000, if the price continues to rise and surpasses the resistance at $99,000.
3. Stop Loss:
Stop loss at $95,000, protecting the trade in case of a deeper correction.
Scenario 2: Possible break of the resistance at $100,000
1. Entry:
If the price breaks $100,000 with increasing volume, opening a long position would be appropriate, seeking to take advantage of the momentum towards $105,000.
2. Target (Take Profit):
Main target: $105,000, a key level if the price surpasses the psychological zone of $100,000.
3. Stop Loss:
Stop loss at $99,000, a recent support that would serve to limit losses if the price does not continue to rise.
Conclusion:
Currently, BTC is in a key resistance zone, with signs of overbought conditions and decreasing volume. The indicators suggest that the price could experience a correction towards $96,000, but there is also the possibility that the price could break $100,000 and continue its ascent towards $105,000.
It is important to note that the analysis performed does not constitute financial advice and should be considered only as a simulation based on current market conditions. Risk management is essential to protect your capital in each trade.
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