Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Fu Ruhe (@vincent 31515173)
It seems that Bitcoin is not the only one shining; funds have begun to flow into mainstream altcoins.
According to Quantify Crypto data, in the past 24 hours, among the top 200 cryptocurrencies by market cap, 185 tokens have risen, while only 15 tokens are in a downtrend. Among them, the top 100 cryptocurrencies saw increases of over 8%, with ETH surpassing 3400 USDT and a 24-hour increase of 9.7%; SOL breaking through 260 USDT, setting a historical high; Ethereum Layer 2 OP and ARB both rising over 15%. On social media, many investors are calling out that the 'altcoin season' has finally arrived.
Has the altcoin season arrived? Odaily Planet Daily will explain the reasons for the rise in altcoin prices and analyze whether it can be sustained. (Note: The author separates on-chain memes from the altcoin group, categorizing memes that are listed on leading exchanges as altcoins.)
Why are altcoins rising?
The trading volume of well-known meme tokens on-chain has decreased, and community discussions have somewhat diminished.
Previously, as Bitcoin prices continually broke new highs, altcoins did not rise but fell, leading to a general pessimism regarding the prospects of altcoins in this bull market, especially for some VC tokens facing large-scale unlocks.
Therefore, the market's attention has turned to launching a more equitable meme sector, with most funds moving on-chain for PVP. Many mainstream altcoins are now worth less than some newly emerging meme projects. For example, currently, the trading volume of the top 100 tokens is even lower than that of the recently popular CHILL GUY.
But the high-intensity PVP of memes has also deterred some investors, making it inevitable for funds to return to altcoins, causing memes and altcoins to start rotating funds. One reason for the recent rise of altcoins is the decline in the popularity of on-chain memes, among which:
The trading volume of well-known meme coins has started to decline, such as ai16z, RIF, and the uppercase and lowercase ELIZA, which were previously highly popular meme coin representatives. According to GMGN data, most of the trading volume has already been halved.
The discussion and sentiment in the meme community have declined. In some meme groups I belong to, discussions have shifted from what projects to chase to how to persist while waiting for the next wave of meme trends.
SEC Chairman Gary Gensler is about to resign, altcoins are celebrating.
Since the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, the cryptocurrency market has been continuously rising, and the market is looking forward to the next cryptocurrency to go mainstream.
Today, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst James Seyffart stated: 'Cboe has submitted applications for 4 Solana spot ETFs to the SEC, with issuers being VanEck, 21Shares, Canary Capital, and Bitwise. If the SEC does not reject the above document applications, the final deadline will be around early August next year.'
The application for cryptocurrency spot ETFs requires issuers to prepare two documents, namely S-1 and 19b-4. This time it's the S-1 document, representing the application for the listing of the SOL spot ETF. Most documents facing significant review challenges are concentrated in 19b-4, so the SOL spot ETF is just getting started.
However, SEC Chairman Gary announced on the X platform that he would officially resign on January 20. The new SEC chairman may accelerate the review process for the SOL spot ETF, and it may not have to extend to the final deadline like the previous Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
In addition, Gary's impending departure has also allowed heavily regulated altcoin projects to breathe easier. Ripple, which has had a long-standing feud with the SEC, saw its token XRP rise nearly 30% in a single day.
Under the impetus of regulatory bodies and the SOL spot ETF, the rise of altcoins is also reasonable.
Can altcoins continue to rise?
Whether the rise of altcoins can continue still requires more dimensions of observation and verification.
Moreover, from historical experience, the altcoin market often comes with short-term hype-driven trends. However, whether it can truly maintain price increases depends on the long-term development capabilities of the projects and the overall market environment. Although there has been a call for an 'altcoin season,' if there are no new technological breakthroughs, practical applications, or ecological development support, this wave of market activity may be more of a temporary rotation of funds rather than a trend-driven rise.
Therefore, whether for institutions or individual investors, it is essential to remain vigilant in the face of this round of altcoin market. On one hand, attention should be paid to changes in the flow of funds in the market, such as on-chain token transfer data and other key indicators; on the other hand, precaution should be taken against the risk of a pullback after short-term gains, especially since the funding movements of leading projects may become an important barometer for subsequent market trends.
At present, the 'altcoin season' remains a battleground of opportunities and risks, and investors should stay calm.
