$TON

Based on the TON/USDT chart, I will analyze and provide scenarios:

1. Current status analysis:

- Price: $5.435 (-1.50%)

- 24h volume: 10.48M TON

- Trading below MA20 (5.490) and MA50 (5.465)

- RSI(6) = 43.389: Neutral zone leaning negative

- MACD is negative and diverging down

- StochRSI is in the low zone (~33)

2. Possible scenarios:

A. BEARISH scenario (Probability 60%):

- Price continues to decline testing the range 5.33-5.34

- If it breaks, it could go to 5.20-5.25

- Stop loss: 5.50

Reason:

- Has broken MA20 and MA50

- Volume is decreasing

- MACD is negatively diverging

- RSI is not oversold yet

B. RECOVERY scenario (Probability 40%):

- Price recovers testing MA20 (5.490)

- If it breaks successfully, it could go to 5.55-5.60

- Stop loss: 5.40

Reason:

- StochRSI in the low zone, could recover

- Selling volume is not too strong

- Could accumulate sideways before increasing

3. Trading recommendations:

SHORT:

- Entry: 5.45-5.47

- Take Profit 1: 5.38 (40%)

- Take Profit 2: 5.34 (40%)

- Take Profit 3: 5.30 (20%)

- Stop Loss: 5.50

LONG (when there is a reverse signal):

- Wait for the price to test 5.33-5.34

- Entry when there is confirmation of a rebound

- Take Profit: 5.45-5.50

- Stop Loss: 5.30

4. Points to note:

- The market is weak

- Low volume, could sideways

- Need to wait for volume confirmation

- Trade according to momentum and pullback

- Do not be aggressive during this period

- Set SL tightly because volatility can be strong

5. Risk management:

- Only use 30-40% of capital

- Split orders to average

- Move SL to breakeven after TP1

- Do not average when loss is >5%

- Cut losses quickly if the scenario is wrong

Advice: The market is unclear, so trade cautiously, with small sizes and prioritize capital preservation.