1. Detailed technical analysis:
- Bollinger Bands:
+ Upper: 0.39787
+ Middle: 0.38582
+ Lower: 0.37377
+ Bands are tightening -> preparing for breakout
- Momentum indicators:
+ RSI(6): 63.73 (uptrend, not overbought yet)
+ MACD: 0.00098 (positive signal)
+ Stoch RSI: 74.39 (currently in high zone)
2. Detailed scenarios:
A) Breakout scenario (40% probability):
Entry Points:
1. EP1 - Aggressive breakout:
- Entry: 0.39800-0.40000
- Stop loss: 0.39072 (MA9)
- Take profits:
* TP1 (50%): 0.40500
* TP2 (30%): 0.41200
* TP3 (20%): 0.42100
- R:R = 1:3
2. EP2 - Breakout confirmation:
- Entry: 0.40200 after retesting 0.40000
- Stop loss: 0.39300
- Take profits:
* TP1 (50%): 0.41000
* TP2 (50%): 0.42100
- R:R = 1:2.5
B) Pullback scenario (35% probability):
Entry Points:
1. EP3 - Strong pullback:
- Entry: 0.38631 (MA20)
- Stop loss: 0.38000
- Take profits:
* TP1 (40%): 0.39500
* TP2 (40%): 0.40000
* TP3 (20%): 0.40500
- R:R = 1:2.8
2. EP4 - Deep pullback:
- Entry: 0.38415 (MA50)
- Stop loss: 0.37808 (MA99)
- Take profits:
* TP1 (50%): 0.39500
* TP2 (50%): 0.40000
- R:R = 1:2.3
C) Sideway scenario (25% probability):
Entry Points:
1. EP5 - Range trading:
- Entry: 0.38800-0.39000
- Stop loss: 0.38400
- Take profits:
* TP1 (70%): 0.39500
* TP2 (30%): 0.39800
- R:R = 1:1.8
3. Confirmation conditions for each EP:
EP1 & EP2 (Breakout):
- Volume spikes
- BTC stays above 98,000
- RSI not in overbought zone
- MACD histogram increasing
EP3 & EP4 (Pullback):
- RSI creates higher lows
- Volume increasing
- Price tests MA and bounces
- Stoch RSI creates a crossover point
EP5 (Sideway):
- Bollinger Bands continue to tighten
- Stable volume
- RSI oscillates 40-60
- MACD is flat
4. Risk management:
- Capital for each order: 3-5%
- Maximum leverage:
+ EP1&2: 3x
+ EP3&4: 5x
+ EP5: 7x
- Trailing stop when:
+ Breakout: After reaching TP1
+ Pullback: When crossing MA9
+ Sideway: Do not use trailing
5. Early stop loss triggers:
- BTC breaks below 97,000
- Volume is decreasing significantly
- RSI creates lower highs
- MACD cross down
6. Conditions to increase position:
- Only add after reaching TP1
- Volume confirms
- No more than 2 times add/order
- Total maximum capital 8%