In response to the recent central bank's most severe crackdown on real estate speculation in history, stock market investor "Ai Run" said that Taiwan's housing prices have reached their highest point on September 19, and may repeat the 12-year decline in 1992, and housing prices may be cut in half. Although the real estate investor internet celebrity "too handsome" agrees that the real estate market will fall, he believes that it will not last for 12 years, with an annual decline of 4%. (Preliminary summary: How can a monthly salary of 30,000 yuan carry a mortgage loan of tens of millions of yuan? The proportion in Taiwan is actually 12%! Ministry of the Interior: Jinlong Tsunami House Hunting is Effective) (Background Supplement: Taiwan’s "Eighth Wave of House Hunting" is coming with more powerful drugs! Experts predict: House prices will definitely explode and fall by 5% every year) The cryptocurrency market has taken advantage of Trump’s victory this month. Bitcoin has soared from 68,000 to now over 98,000 US dollars, and it is likely to hit 100,000 US dollars this week. The currency market is in a frenzy as the U.S. dollar crosses the momentum. However, Taiwan's real estate market is in a different situation. This year, the new Qing'an government has driven the real estate market boom, causing many banks to initiate loan restrictions after housing loans approached the full level. Taiwan's central bank also launched the seventh wave of credit controls on September 20, launching the largest wave of credit controls in history. Severe measures to crack down on real estate speculation have caused the real estate market transaction volume to suddenly cool down. Some experts are pessimistic about the future of Taiwan's real estate market, which will continue to decline year after year. For example, the real estate investor Internet celebrity "Overhandsome" talked about the real estate market on the Youtube channel of Decoration Kowuro this week and reiterated his view that "house prices will fall." The guest at the same time, the stock market investor "Ai Run", was even more serious about vacancy. He believes that Taiwan's housing prices have reached their highest point on September 19, and will "fall for 12 consecutive years, and housing prices may be cut in half." Extended reading: Taiwan’s “eighth wave of housing crackdowns” is coming with more powerful medicine! Experts predict: House prices will definitely explode and fall by 5% every year. Stock trading man Ai Run: Taiwan's housing market will fall for 12 consecutive years, and housing prices will halve. "Ai Run", who retired in his 30s and relied on stock trading, said that all his funds are in the stock market and he has never bought a house. They are also bearish on the future direction of Taiwan’s housing market. He took out the Xinyi Housing Historical House Price Index and pointed out that Taiwan’s housing prices reached their peak in 1992, and then continued to fall until SARS in 2003. “Taipei City fell by 25%, Taipei County (New Taipei City) fell by 30%, and Taoyuan fell by 30%. Kaohsiung and Taichung have really halved, and the average price across Taiwan has dropped by 30%." He pointed out that many people in Taiwan have the misconception that housing prices are rising all the way, and they do not know the history of Taiwan's housing market falling for 11 consecutive years from 1992 to 2023.Airun believes that housing prices in Taiwan have reached their highest point on September 19. Coupled with the restrictions in Article 72-2 of the (Banking Law), mortgage interest rates are getting higher and higher, and the central bank’s seventh wave of credit controls has punctured the housing market bubble, " The housing market will be like 1992, falling for 12 consecutive years, with house prices halving." Too Shuai believes that "house prices will fall", but does not exceed 5% in a year. He said that all his funds are invested in real estate and has never bought or sold stocks in his life. He is even more bitter that "only second-rate people can buy stocks." Too Shuai bluntly refutes Ai Run believes that housing prices in Taiwan will fall for 12 consecutive years. He analyzed that the 1992 wave was "a 36% drop in 12 years and a 3% drop in one year", and it was not a sudden plunge. And since then, the interest rate has been reduced from 13% to 1.4%, and now it has only increased to 2.5%. He believes that real estate will not fall again this time, because real estate, like eggs, has the "rigidity" of prices. Furthermore, he points out that Taiwan has too much money, with annual deposits increasing by 3.6 trillion. "With too much money, anyone has to buy a house." Real estate is actually determined by money, not people. Taiwan is a perverted country. From the age of 20 to 90, you have to buy a house. He agrees with the view that Airun’s house prices will fall, and they usually fall for a long time, but he does not think it will fall for 12 consecutive years. “This time the time will be shortened.” A 4% fall in a year is reasonable, and the decline will not exceed 5% in a year. %. Poll: 12% of the people believe that housing prices will fall, and nearly 40% of the people will reduce their willingness to buy a house. It is worth noting that except for Shuai Guotou and other real estate investors, all believe that the housing market will turn downward. A latest poll shows that 12% of the people They believe that housing prices will fall in the next six months, and 37.5% of people have reduced their willingness to buy a house due to credit controls. According to Yahoo Finance, Cathay Financial Holdings announced the results of the November (National Economic Confidence Survey) on the morning of the 20th. Among the questions about the impact of the central bank’s seventh wave of real estate speculation on housing prices, it is estimated that housing prices in the county and city where they live will rise in the next six months. The proportion is still 58.4%, of which 43.3% believe that it will rise by 3 to 10%, a decrease of 13.8% from the previous survey, and 15.1% estimate that it will rise by more than 10%. However, 12% of the people expect house prices to fall by more than 3%, an increase of 7.7% from the previous survey, of which 10.7% estimate that house prices will fall by between 3% and 10%.Overall data shows that people’s expectations for housing prices to fall are higher than half a year ago. Regarding the question of whether the seventh wave of credit controls affects people's willingness to buy a house, 37.5% of the people have reduced their willingness to buy a house. Among them, people who own their homes are more affected than those who rent. Extended reading: The toughest crackdown in history is coming! Yang Jinlong made four moves to hit investors hard. The central bank froze interest rates for two consecutive times and raised the reserve ratio by one yard. National economic confidence survey in November, source: Yahoo Finance. The eighth wave of housing crackdowns may come on December 19. The results of this poll show that the central bank is The financial tsunami that suppressed the overheated real estate market has achieved initial results. Recently, many real estate market experts have stated that the central bank's "eighth wave of real estate crackdowns" is imminent. Shuai Guotou pointed out last month that the eighth wave of housing sales may begin on December 19: the first home loan is 50%, the second home loan is 20%, and the third home loan is 5%. Only young people can get 80% loans, everyone else takes cash, and everyone makes way for young people to buy a house. Not only that, Shuai Guaituo said that the new Qing'an policy will only last 8 months, and the 30% water level limit of the eight major banks will be reduced. The upper limit has been reached, and young people who do not own a house are reminded to use the Xinqingan loan to buy a house. There are only the last 8 months left. Related reports: The central bank does not rule out the "eighth wave of housing crackdowns" Yang Jinlong: Crazy house buying will spawn a huge bubble and must be taken in advance. The "exemption clause" of the central bank's seventh wave of housing crackdowns has been released: three types of people, including first-time buyers and those who change houses, will be relieved of speculation Fangzi’s nightmare is coming! 76,000 households with mortgage payments will become the hardest hit households by the end of the year. Is a golden cross in the currency and housing markets imminent? China's housing rescue market has launched the "4+4+2" stimulus new policy, but the problem of unfinished buildings is difficult to solve...Construction stocks did not rise but fell (Bitcoin. Housing prices golden cross) Big real estate speculators are too handsome: they will fall for several years in a row, and they will cut off every year 4%.." This article was first published in BlockTempo (Dong District Dongzhu - the most influential blockchain news media).

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