1. Long-term uptrend of BTC
BTC is in a strong uptrend and is expected to last another 4-5 months. This is completely justified when looking at larger time frames like W2 and M.
• W2 Frame: The current RSI is at 74.9, still lower than the old peak (85), indicating there is still room for price increases before reaching overbought territory.
• M Frame: RSI is currently at 75.8, close to the old peak (76.7). Breaking this level could trigger a new FOMO wave, pushing BTC prices higher.
Based on these factors, if BTC wants to surpass old RSI levels, an additional increase of 10-15k is entirely feasible, possibly even more if market sentiment shifts strongly.
2. Observing crowd psychology and divergence effect
• Currently, the fact that many people are still shorting BTC because they believe it is in a divergence zone (weekly/monthly frame) reflects a skeptical mindset towards the price increase. However, this is actually a good incentive for the long side if the price continues to rise, leading to a mass liquidation of short positions (short squeeze), driving the price even higher.
• FOMO effect: If BTC surpasses old RSI peaks, this will drive larger capital into the market. At that point, even a correction would have a hard time breaking the uptrend, but rather, it would create opportunities for BTC to set new higher peaks.
3. Personal expectations for the RSI peak and BTC price
• W2 Frame: If the RSI reaches 90, BTC could reach a very high price, far exceeding the current 98k range.
• M Frame: RSI reaching 85 will reflect a strong increase beyond many people's expectations, potentially bringing BTC to a price range above 110k or even higher.
4. Recommendations
• For investors: Focus on larger frames as mentioned to avoid being distracted by short-term fluctuations. The market still has long-term growth potential, but caution is needed with short-term corrections.
• Risk management: Although the uptrend is clear, managing capital and setting reasonable stop-loss points are essential to protect profits in case the market unexpectedly reverses.
In summary
My personal view on the possibility of BTC continuing to rise is reasonable when considering technical analysis and market sentiment. With a reasonable plan, this could be a phase that brings significant profits for investors committed to the long-term trend.
This article is for reference only!!!
