"Global liquidity is on the verge of an inflection point, and good news from the crypto industry continues to push prices upward. Seize every pullback to get on board."
Why isn’t there a copycat season yet? 🤔 I think many people must have been waiting (me too), because global liquidity has not improved significantly. As shown in Figure 1, the U.S. Treasury Department has only begun to make larger expenditures in the past week, but due to recent geopolitical risks, Some funds in the market have returned to the reverse repo market, offsetting the liquidity originally drawn from fiscal interviews. Fortunately, due to the unique advantages of the industry, the market value of stablecoins continues to increase, which prevents the copycats from being too miserable. In fact, some high-quality altcoins have performed well recently and have not fallen back to post-election lows.
Will there be only a meme season but not a copycat season? I think there will be a copycat season, but it’s difficult to perform well in all of them, because after all, there are many categories and currencies, so you have to select them. Which sector do you think will take over the meme craze in 2025?
I personally think that the new craze will be driven by sectors with new technological breakthroughs. The meme craze may continue in 2025, but where the next one will be is the key to reaping huge returns in the copycat season, but who knows? I don’t have a clear opinion yet, but we can think together about which sectors (or new ones) may quickly gather liquidity, attract investors to transfer assets, or create hype bubbles in the context of next year’s time and space? Judging from the sector performance in the past three months (Figure 2), apart from memes, DeFi 2.0, L1 and AI are the three best. Choosing these three will be the easiest answer at present. If there are any new discoveries in the future, I will share them with you. 🙌
The market currently expects that liquidity will begin to improve at an accelerated pace after the new U.S. government takes office next year, and may improve significantly after February. Today, the Prime Minister of Japan also announced a fiscal stimulus plan (Figure 3, if implemented next year). Global liquidity is expected next year It will be looser than this year. The only thing you need to pay attention to at the end of this year is the Bank of Japan’s interest rate meeting on December 19. The market currently expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by a certain amount this year. Japan’s CPI has been on a downward trend recently (Figure 4). Is it necessary to raise interest rates in the year? There is still uncertainty about further interest rate hikes within this period, and there may be short-term pressure at that time, but it will not affect the overall trend development. In the United States, the unemployment rate is still above 4%, and the majority of the population is permanently unemployed, which is what we need to pay attention to in the future. Inflation is stable, and there is a high probability of another interest rate cut this year (Figure 5).
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Crypto enthusiasts are about to gather at the right time and in the right place. President Trump’s cabinet selections are almost all crypto supporters from inside to outside, including Vice President JD Vance, Health Secretary RFK Jr., Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, etc., as well as government efficiency The two leaders of DOGE are both supporters and holders of cryptocurrency. In 2025, political, financial and economic explosions will drive the rapid adoption of cryptocurrency into the mainstream market. It is expected that many new policies and developments will be fermented in Q3 and Q4.
The trading volume of BlackRock's IBIT ETF options reached US$1.9 billion yesterday after its listing, and the long-short ratio of the options reached 0.22 (the ratio of long is four times that of short). Many institutional investors have new tools to trade Bitcoin. Bitcoin reaches new highs. The emergence of new tools like options will undoubtedly bring more liquidity to the market, and also enrich traditional investors’ trading strategies and opportunities to enter the crypto market. There will be more similar products in the future, whether it is ETH options (currently expected to be launched at the end of the year) or index ETFs (maybe at the end of the year), other altcoin ETFs may be launched in 2026, depending on the new market next year. The attitude of the leader.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) has attracted a lot of attention recently and has been discussed by many people. To put it simply, it is not time to worry about whether MSTR will explode. The funding game of MSTR has just begun. In the next three years, MSTR will raise 42 billion yuan. Use U.S. dollars to buy Bitcoin. The latest debt repayment date is February 2027 (see Figure 6). Before that, unless the market deteriorates (such as liquidity turning tight, BTC falling sharply, micro-strategies being implemented, etc.), it will be difficult to Threaten the current Big Mac upward spiral strategy of micro-strategies using stock and debt financing to buy Bitcoin. Furthermore, the new FASB accounting standards will be adopted next year, and the financial performance of micro-strategy will begin to improve. There is a chance that it will be included in the SP500 index in the second half of 2025 or 2026. There will be hundreds of billions of funds holding Bitcoin indirectly through micro-strategy, and then let Continue to buy micro-strategy... There are a lot of things worth writing about micro-strategy. Let’s chat again when we have the chance!
Recently I have time (although it is very difficult) to do some data research on meme coins to understand which meme coins are worth holding for a long time (worth ambush!). Are you interested? If you have any, please like and share~
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