Due to the influence of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler announcing his resignation, the price of Bitcoin also surged to $99,000, just a step away from $100,000.
Gary Gensler tweeted that he will resign on January 20, 2025. Finally leaving, this is good news for the crypto industry.
Actually, Gary was quite friendly towards cryptocurrencies in the early days.
In 2021, he not only approved the BTC and ETH spot ETFs but also frequently communicated with FTX's Sam to formulate many new regulations to promote the development of cryptocurrencies.
However, with the collapse of FTX, the Democratic Party began to implement strict regulations on cryptocurrencies under the pressure of political correctness.
The SEC has dominated a high-pressure regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies over the past two years. The SEC chairman is finally being replaced, and now everyone can breathe a sigh of relief.
Next, we can look forward to whether the new SEC chairman will approve the SOL spot ETF and the Ethereum staking ETF.
And Ethereum also saw a rebound last night, currently fluctuating around $3,300.
Altcoins are also watching Ethereum's performance; altcoins will follow if Ethereum rises.
However, compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum's performance is indeed much weaker.
So why can't Ethereum just rise?
I think there are two main reasons.
First, the selling pressure from Grayscale has been ongoing, while other institutions can't absorb the market.
Bitcoin also experienced selling pressure from Grayscale when it first passed the ETF, but quickly adjusted.
However, Ethereum has been bleeding heavily; many people are waiting for Grayscale to sell off before Ethereum can take off, but they have been waiting for a long time.
The second deeper reason is that the fund managers of ETF issuers have no motivation to promote the Ethereum ETF.
Grayscale holders have been selling, while clients of other issuers do not have enough purchasing power.
Bitcoin has super influencers like Trump and Musk, as well as super big investors like MicroStrategy.
It is said that Microsoft is also about to join, so Bitcoin has strong external forces to push it.
ETF issuers just need to 'pull deposits' because the market education has already been mostly done by these big players.
But Ethereum is different; it doesn't have a super influencer or a super big investor.
Introducing Bitcoin ETFs to American moms is very simple; Musk and Trump have already paved the way for you.
However, introducing the Ethereum ETF is much harder, as it requires explaining a lot of technical terms, and the listeners might have left by then.
Just like in our village, your relatives and friends all know Bitcoin, but there are far fewer who know Ethereum. If you don't understand an asset, you won't just buy it.
Think from another perspective: if you were the CEO of an ETF issuer facing a lot of hot money in the market, would you choose to continue pushing Bitcoin or take the time to educate the market to promote Ethereum?
So this is also one reason why Bitcoin performs better than Ethereum.
When will this situation change?
I think it may take until the market's demand for Bitcoin is met, and each company realizes they can't compete, before they start turning to Ethereum.
This timing may come after the Ethereum staking ETF is approved.
Once the Ethereum staking ETF starts offering staking rewards, a risk-free return of more than 3% in coin terms will be very attractive to traditional finance.
Another reason why Ethereum can't rise is that Wall Street institutions haven't acquired enough chips.
The current situation is that Ethereum has become a major narrative in the two rounds of bull and bear markets, with many long-term holders and more dispersed chips.
Therefore, this turnover of chips requires a long time and needs to be fully washed out.
To encourage previous long-term holders to sell their chips, such as switching to the popular SOL. The price of ETH may be suppressed for a long time until the new market makers accumulate enough before there is motivation to raise the ETH price.
From the data, Wall Street institutions are gradually taking over the chips previously held by retail investors.
In the past year, the market share of the top 100 Ethereum addresses has been on the rise, currently reaching 66%.
Especially after the Ethereum ETF was approved for listing, this proportion has clearly increased. This indicates that the concentration of ETH is getting higher.
Top addresses have been buying in, but ETH prices haven't risen, which indicates that on one hand, the market makers have been accumulating.
So if you hold Ethereum, be mentally prepared; Ethereum's performance may not be strong before the Ethereum staking ETF is approved.
However, there's no need to worry too much; after Trump takes office, I think the approval of the Ethereum staking ETF is just a matter of time, and it's highly likely that Ethereum will rise next year.
