1. Current situation analysis:
- Current price: $35.939 (+6.24%)
- 24h volume: 11.73M AVAX
- 24h range: $32.312 - $36.244
- Liquidity: 407.13M USDT
2. Technical analysis:
Positive:
+ Break all major MA lines
+ Strong volume increase supports trend
+ RSI not in overbought zone
+ MACD gives positive signal
+ Stoch RSI is in a good momentum zone
Negatives:
- Increased sharply by 6.24%, may pullback
- Need to retest support zone to confirm trend
- Volume shows signs of decreasing
3. Suggest scenarios:
A) Bullish Scenario (70%):
- Break $36.244 (high 24h)
- Target 1: $37.2 (+3.5%)
- Target 2: $38.5 (+7.1%)
- Target 3: $40.0 (+11.3%)
- Stop loss: $34.8 (-3.2%)
B) Bearish Scenario (30%):
- Rejection at $36.244
- Pullback to test $34.8-35.0
- Worst case: Re-test $33.6 (MA50)
4. Entry Strategy:
A) Aggressive Entry:
- Enter at current price ($35.939)
- Stop loss: $34.8
- Leverage: 5x
- Risk/Reward: 1:2.5
- Size: 30% of total position
Advantages:
+ Momentum is strong
+ Can catch breakout early
Disadvantages:
- High pullback risk
- Relatively wide stop loss
B) Conservative Entry:
- Wait for pullback to $34.8-35.0
- Stop loss: $34.2
- Leverage: 7x
- Risk/Reward: 1:3
- Size: 40% of total position
Advantages:
+ Better Risk/Reward
+ Tighter stop loss
+ Entry at support zone
Disadvantages:
- May miss breakout
- Need to be patient
C) Entry Breakout:
- Wait for break and retest $36.244
- Stop loss: $35.5
- Leverage: 5x
- Risk/Reward: 1:2
- Size: 30% of total position
Advantages:
+ Confirm clear trend
+ Reasonable stop loss
Disadvantages:
- Entry at higher price
- May be faked out
5. Risk management:
A) Capital allocation:
- Total risk per order: Max 2% of account
- Split orders according to proposed ratio
- Trailing stop when target 1 is reached
B) Stop loss:
- Hard stop for each entry
- Trailing stop after target 1
- Break even when price reaches +2%
6. Key levels:
Support:
1. $34.820 (MA20)
2. $34.350 (MA50)
3. $33.642 (Strong support)
Resistance:
1. $36.244 (High 24h)
2. $37.200 (Psychological)
3. $38.500 (Previous high)
7. Exit conditions:
Exit entirely when:
- Break below MA50
- Volume suddenly drops sharply
- Clear RSI divergence
- BTC has strong opposite fluctuations
8. Factors to monitor:
Technical:
- Volume profile
- Funding rate
- OI (Open Interest)
Fundamentals:
- News about AVAX ecosystem
- Market sentiment
- BTC correlation
Final recommendation:
1. Prioritize Conservative Entry due to best R/R
2. Ready to catch breakout with 30% size if strong signal
3. Tight risk management with trailing stop
4. Monitor volume to validate trend
5. Pay attention to news that may affect price
