Brothers, I am currently thinking about a question. Everyone is focused on altcoins being trash and the second-tier coins being trash. This year is indeed like that, with everyone believing it is a bull market for Bitcoin. What if the market behaves like this? For example, now everyone does not recognize altcoins and ETH, and they all think it should go to Bitcoin, whether it’s entering long positions or buying spot. They believe Bitcoin can continue to surge, and they might sell off or discard their altcoins. Currently, the market is an independent market for Bitcoin; the previous bull market had narrative-driven movements combined with market liquidity, with outside capital entering the market, which led to a surge in all currencies. Now, everyone thinks it is a bull market, but that’s only because Bitcoin is rising. According to common logic, Bitcoin should be at this price, and ETH should directly be at ten thousand, but it isn’t. So, if I assume a scenario where the market's retail investors have limited funds, Bitcoin is now highly recognized, and most people might think altcoins will remain as they are (of course, this is how most consider it). Thus, Bitcoin is currently moving in an independent market. Once the funds flee, Bitcoin may start to behave independently in another way, leading to a drop (distribution) and the flow of funds rotating back into second-tier coins and altcoins. So, what do you think the subsequent market will look like? If this is indeed the trend, then I might have to slightly adjust my strategy, focusing more on medium to long-term layouts while treating short-term fluctuations as secondary. The information I have received personally indicates that a proposal from certain individuals will likely pass before the end of the year, so the altcoin season might start from the end of this year to the beginning of the next. At that time, the effects of medium to long-term strategies will appear, but until the market moves, everything is merely prediction. Once the market moves, what everyone thinks or sees, or whatever else, will just be hindsight.
Disclaimer: The above is purely fictional, a personal conjecture, and should not be taken as investment advice. Furthermore, I plan to start positioning next week.