The term “black swan” describes highly unpredictable events that significantly impact financial markets. While this concept generates a lot of interest, it is essential to analyze such claims with caution and rely on solid foundations.

How likely is a Black Swan event?

Claiming that there is an 85% chance of such an event is contradictory, as black swan events are by definition unpredictable. Such figures often reflect a sense of uncertainty rather than objective reality. However, current financial market conditions do justify the need for caution.

Current State of the Market

1. Bull Dominance (Rise):

Markets are showing short-term optimism, driven by rallies in cryptocurrencies such as ETH, BNB and SOL. However, these bullish moves can also lead to significant corrections, especially if they are inflated by speculation or excessive leverage.

2. Extreme Volatility:

Large drops, such as those suggested (10,000 points in indices or 600 points in specific cryptocurrencies), typically occur in response to significant external factors, such as macroeconomic announcements, unexpected crashes, or drastic regulations.

3. Vulnerable Projects:

Popular assets like ETH, SOL, and others could face significant pullbacks in the event of global destabilization. Leveraged positions often magnify these declines, leaving room for extreme moves.

How to Prepare for the Unexpected

1. Risk Management:

Use tools such as stop-loss to limit your losses in the event of unexpected movements. Keep positions adjusted to your risk profile.

2. Diversification:

Don't put all your resources into a single asset. A diversified portfolio is more resilient to sudden downturns.

3. Liquidity:

Reserve a portion of your capital in stablecoins or cash. This will allow you to take advantage of opportunities in the event of a massive crash.

4. Constant Analysis:

Stay informed about global trends and macroeconomic events that may impact the market, such as central bank decisions, regulations or disruptive technological innovations.

Conclusion: Prudence is your best ally

While we cannot predict a “black swan” event with certainty, risk never goes away in volatile markets like cryptocurrencies. Exercise caution, diversify your investments, and operate under a solid strategic plan.

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