Recent hot topics have revolved around various themes of memes, which can be termed the 'memecoin super cycle.' The impact of memecoins extends far beyond merely capturing the imagination of cryptocurrency enthusiasts. However, this success is also accompanied by skepticism. Many believe that memecoins are merely for speculation, characterized by high volatility and seemingly lacking intrinsic value.
In cryptocurrency, the value of a token generally consists of three main components:
Store of value: Like gold or bitcoin, tokens can serve as a hedge against inflation, maintaining purchasing power over time. This is the most basic yet challenging form of value, as it requires broad trust and consensus among users.
Cash flow and transactional demand: This value stems from actual utility—whether through transaction fees, revenue, or value accumulation mechanisms such as token burn. Similar to stocks, these tokens can be assessed based on their business model and ability to generate sustainable cash flow.
Meme, narrative, and attention value: This part is primarily driven by the community. The ability of a project to attract traffic and build a strong community often becomes a key value driver. Slowly shifting the narrative from technological innovation to financial infrastructure, alongside increasing cultural and social elements.
Another aspect is that these three factors are not mutually exclusive; a good project often embodies a unique combination of these three elements. However, as the project matures and develops, this balance may change.
Bitcoin: Bitcoin embodies all three value elements, but it is primarily known for its store of value attributes. In addition, it has practical functions such as payments and cross-border transfers, along with a loyal community of Bitcoin extremists that reinforce its cultural significance.
Ethereum/Solana: The value of both primarily derives from their essential role as currencies for network transactions and operations, with increased network activity driving token demand directly. Their established economic positions and network effects also aid them in developing as reliable stores of value.
Dogecoin: Originally a meme-driven token, Dogecoin's development has surpassed its initial appeal. Through its focused community and ongoing relevance, Dogecoin has achieved a degree of stability, enabling it to serve as a store of value for its loyal holder community.
Among the thousands of existing tokens, fewer than 20 protocols may have truly gained recognition as stable stores of value or achieved the market fit necessary to generate sustained demand. The market value of the vast majority of circulating tokens primarily derives from the third element—their meme status, narrative strength, and ability to attract market attention.
Graham once said, 'In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.'
Market events and investor sentiment drive short-term price fluctuations, but over time, assets typically revert to their true fundamental value. This principle is not unique to stocks; it applies to all assets, including physical assets, tokens, and meme coins.
Compared to other assets, meme coins are more volatile and react more strongly to market events. However, their success or failure cannot be explained solely by short-term trading and speculation. Among thousands of meme coins, only a few have successfully established a lasting community and maintained their value. The rest typically vanish shortly after the initial hype fades.
The key is to understand that meme coins are not just speculative tools—they are tokenized expressions of community and cultural value.
A powerful origin story and an engaging narrative are key factors driving the initial success of meme coins. Memes are akin to genes, spreading through replication and evolution, but among the countless memes that appear, only those with truly strong narratives can gain influence and contagion.
The most successful memecoins have exceptional market interpretive abilities that can capture people's attention. PEPE launched during the dark times of the cryptocurrency market in early 2023, bringing much-needed humor and lightness, helping to change market sentiment and sparking a broader meme coin revival. After the FTX collapse, BONK became a beacon of hope in the Solana ecosystem, embodying resistance to centralized power and community resilience. Recently, GOAT carved out its own unique position by building its narrative around an AI-driven memecoin supported by Marc Andreessen, but now it seems to be impacted by the ACT that is favored by Binance, challenging its status.
The uniqueness of these successful memecoins lies not only in their entertainment value but also in their ability to fabricate narratives that resonate with market sentiment and capture the public's imagination through compelling storylines.
Influential figures often play a crucial role in shaping the narratives and success of memecoins. For example, DOGE with Elon Musk, WIF with Ansem, or SPX with Murad. These key figures are not just advocates; they become pillars of the community, supporting the development of the token while shaping its fundamental vision and values.
However, even the most compelling narratives and strongest leadership cannot guarantee lasting success. Look at the memecoin super cycle of early 2024—despite initial excitement, the vast majority of releases quickly became irrelevant. While initial hype and FOMO may temporarily inflate prices, what follows is often predictable: once momentum stalls, it turns into a desperate race to exit, with holders scrambling to sell ahead of others, often resulting in a crash of token value to zero. This boom-and-bust cycle has become a very familiar pattern in the meme coin space.
What sets the crypto community apart from traditional brands or cultural groups is how they combine cultural value with economic incentives. Take Degen as an example, which directly rewards content creation and social engagement in the early Farcaster community. Participants are not just consumers; they are active value creators. This creates a positive feedback loop where early and more active engagement leads to greater rewards, encouraging early adoption and long-term community loyalty.
The true value of meme coins depends on how many people resonate with their meme culture and community and wish to participate. Therefore, organic growth and fairness are not just moral imperatives but practical necessities. How tokens are issued and distributed fairly and transparently becomes a key criterion for winning people's trust and encouraging their participation.
This is particularly important for meme coins, as community involvement is at their core. The success of launch platforms like http://Pump.fun lies not only in lowering the barriers to token issuance but also in responding to the market's demand for fairness and transparency in early token investments.
Beneath the seemingly worthless and unsound facade of gambling and speculation, meme coins also contain deeper meanings—they represent the fusion of tokens, community, and culture. Meme coins embody the purest form of the decentralized and fair ideals of the crypto ecosystem. They indicate that sustainable value can be created independently through community participation and transparent operations, without the need for complex technologies or financial products. This suggests that beyond pure speculative frenzy, there are more possibilities for blockchain technology to realize new forms of social networks and services.
More memecoins will continue to emerge and fade away. Through these cycles of innovation and failure, we gradually uncover the reasons for the thriving of digital communities and how token economics can better align with human behavior and social dynamics. Although this ongoing evolution carries uncertainty, it is steadily leading us towards a more complex and sustainable community-driven value creation model in the digital age.
#MEME趋势风向
