Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author｜Nan Zhi (@Assassin_Malvo)
At about 19:00 last night, VItalik’s address transferred 32 ETH to Base across chains and minted 400 NFTs named Oracle Patron. After attracting the attention of the community, the minting speed soared. OpenSea data shows that after the minting was completed, the transaction price quickly rose from the cost of 0.08 ETH to a maximum of 0.25 ETH. As of the time of writing, the floor price was still 0.232 ETH, an increase of nearly 200%, and the total market value is approximately 10.8 million US dollars.
(Note: VItalik’s address is 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA96045)
What project does Oracle Patron NFT come from? What are the use cases or benefits? Odaily Planet Daily will analyze it in this article.
Prediction Market Truemarkets
The issuer of Oracle Patron NFT is Truemarkets, a binary prediction market with a trading mechanism that is basically the same as Polymarket. For each event, the question is simplified into two answers, yes or no, and a corresponding binary trading market is created. The two answers are priced in real time based on the market-perceived odds of the results, and the market is balanced by traders and market makers who provide liquidity for YES and NO tokens. When the result is settled, the token corresponding to the correct answer can be redeemed at $1, while the opposite token is worth zero.
(Reference reading: (Super detailed reveal of the technical implementation behind Polymarket), (With the US election approaching, is Polymarket's data more reliable?))
What's the difference?
Unlike the process of creating markets through proposal review in Polymarket, Truemarkets' market creation is currently limited to whitelisted addresses. In the official document, Truemarkets stated that market creation will also be delegated to AI Agents and will achieve permissionless market creation in 2025, but the specific process and method have not yet been disclosed.
NFT and Token Use Cases
According to official documents, the only use of Oracle Patron NFT is as a proof of stake for the TRUE token airdrop. Each NFT is allocated 2,666.67 TRUE tokens, totaling 40.19 million, accounting for 40.19% of the total tokens. Therefore, based on the current NFT market value, the total market value of the token is 25 million US dollars.
So what is the use of the token? According to the current official documents, TRUE is only used as a governance token. Token holders have the authority to control protocol fees and manage the oracle committee, while the oracle committee is responsible for managing market creation, incentive distribution, dispute resolution and other matters. There is no content about the token having substantive incentives.
After the election, how are prediction markets doing?
The US election is undoubtedly the key to supporting Polymarket and other prediction markets. After Trump's victory, DefiLlama data showed that the prediction market TVL fell from the highest point of $545 million to the current $134 million, and has been sideways at this level for a week. In the TVL ranking, Polymarket is the leader, with about $100 million, while Azuro, the second place, is $7.8 million, with a clear gap.
In terms of products, Polymarket has not been updated for many days. The current focus is still on updating various markets. The current top-ranked market is "How many basis points will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in December?"
Similarly, Azuro has not had any major updates in terms of products and mechanisms in recent months, and its focus is also on expanding the market. At the end of October, Azuro launched special markets, allowing the creation of events outside the scope of regular sports or politics, with examples such as "Will CZ return to Binance after being released from prison?" and "Will BTC hit a new high before December 2024?"
It can be seen that the prediction market mechanism has entered a relatively mature and stable stage. How to discover and create betting themes that are "popular with the people" will be the development focus for a long time in the future.
