Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Golem (@web3_golem)
The Bitcoin ecosystem was once considered one of the most promising ecosystems in this bull market, with a total market value expected to reach hundreds of billions of dollars.
However, since the end of the inscription boom from late 2023 to early 2024, the Bitcoin ecosystem has gradually entered a bear market, with a sharp decline in incremental users and funds. Although Rune, 5-character BRC-20 token pizza, the Fractal ecosystem, and CAT-20 have brought some attention to the Bitcoin ecosystem, the scale is still not comparable to the previous inscription craze across the network.
On one hand, the price of Bitcoin continues to rise and set new highs, making $100,000 seem within reach; on the other hand, the gradual prosperity of the Solana ecosystem and other ecosystems (such as Base, Sui, etc.). When will the wind of the bull market blow to the Bitcoin ecosystem? Odaily Planet Daily will outline some signs of the Bitcoin ecosystem's impending resurgence in this article.
Leading exchanges support the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem
For the ecosystem, support from leading centralized exchanges is crucial, which means huge traffic, new funds, and some potential development resources. Recently, users have mainly focused on which Solana Memes Binance will soon launch, but Binance has also been supporting the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem all along.
During the last inscription bull market, Binance actively listed BRC-20 tokens ORDI, SATS spot trading, and contracts for RATS. Subsequently, other excellent asset protocols such as Rune, Atomical, CAT-20, etc., were born in the Bitcoin ecosystem, all of which are expected to gain support from Binance.
Especially yesterday (November 18), Binance Pool announced support for Fractal Bitcoin (FB) joint mining, and the token FB surged over 80% shortly after the announcement. Although Binance indicated in the announcement that 'Binance Pool's launch of Fractal Bitcoin (FB) mining services does not guarantee that this token will be listed on Binance.com,' it is still a positive signal for the Bitcoin ecosystem and Fractal, which are in a low period.
Apart from Binance, OKX has also been supporting the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem. Whether it is BRC-20, Atomical, Runes, or the recent Fractal and CAT 20 ecosystems, OKX Wallet has been updating its wallet to enable users to better experience the Bitcoin ecosystem. Apart from UniSat, OKX Wallet has also become the most used wallet in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Since November, the Chinese official Twitter of OKX has frequently mentioned the Bitcoin ecosystem. On November 11, when Bitcoin set a historical high, OKX mentioned that 'the BTC ecosystem is also thriving,' and the accompanying image basically covered all tracks and protocols of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
On November 12, OKX's Chinese official Twitter once again posted about the Bitcoin ecosystem, including images of BRC-20, Runes, CAT-20, and Fractal, which are the four protocols/sections that have relatively high enthusiasm and topic engagement in the Bitcoin ecosystem community.
According to OKX's latest announcement, it will officially launch DOGUSDT perpetual contracts and open trading on November 19, 2024, at 2:00 PM (UTC+8). (Odaily note: DOG is a completely open-source, community-driven meme coin based on Bitcoin Rune standards.)
Rune surpasses BRC-20, becoming the first asset protocol in the BTC ecosystem
Previously, the Bitcoin ecosystem was still in the early exploration stage, with developers actively conducting various experiments on the Bitcoin network, giving birth to various asset protocols. Actively exploring the possibilities of the Bitcoin ecosystem is inherently a good thing, but there are also 'side effects', namely that existing asset protocols may each operate independently, dispersing the consensus and funds of the Bitcoin ecosystem community, which is not conducive to forming a collective effort.
However, this situation is beginning to change, as Rune is becoming the largest consensus for asset issuance protocols in the Bitcoin ecosystem, even surpassing the 'big brother' BRC-20. From the data, since the official release of the Rune protocol in April this year, Rune trading has long occupied over 50% of the share on the Bitcoin chain, followed by regular Bitcoin transfer transactions or transactions of other asset protocols (some asset protocol transactions have not been recognized), while the trading share of BRC-20 and Ordinals has reduced to less than 10%.
Data source: https://geniidata.com/user/orddata/bitcoin-protocols-analysis
Compared to other asset protocols, Rune is currently the best in terms of community activity and profit-making effect in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
With the decline in ecosystem popularity and asset prices, many Bitcoin ecosystem communities have gradually 'declined'. However, in Rune, communities such as DOG•GO•TO•THE•MOON, PUPS•WORLD•PEACE, BILLION·DOLLAR·CAT, RSIC·GENESIS·RUNE, etc., are still active, and new quality communities such as MEMENTO·MORI and GIZMO•IMAGINARY•KITTEN continue to emerge.
Although there are situations of PVP and 'gas arbitrage', Rune is still the asset protocol in the Bitcoin ecosystem that continues to generate hotspots and has some profit-making effects. The AI Meme frenzy on the Solana ecosystem naturally drives the excitement of other ecosystems' AI Memes. Among the many asset protocols in the Bitcoin ecosystem, only Rune has picked up this wave of enthusiasm and brought about a wealth effect, with the current leader in the Rune AI track, CYPHER•GENESIS, having a market value exceeding $30 million. (Recommended reading: November 15 and November 18 Odaily editorial department's complete record of Meme operations)
Last night, the new Rune MILO•THE•MILLIONAIRE•GATOR completed the etching, and I personally tested the minting cost of a group (25 pieces) at about 60 USDT. Because the project deployer has certain connections with the largest IP puppet in the Bitcoin ecosystem, the market price of a group on Magic Eden has risen to about 118 USDT today.
Although the current total market value of Rune is $1.91 billion, it is still less than the total market value of BRC-20, which exceeds $3 billion. However, as the Bitcoin ecosystem gradually warms up, the total market value of Rune is also climbing, and surpassing BRC-20 is just a matter of time.
Data source: Geniidata
Today, OKX announced the launch of DOG•GO•TO•THE•MOON, which also represents the recognition of the Rune by leading exchanges. If we have to guess which Bitcoin ecosystem asset will be the first to be listed on Binance in this round, the top assets in Rune are the most likely.
Of course, there are also other very high-quality asset protocols and ecosystem segments in this round of Bitcoin ecosystem, such as the Lightning Network, Fractal, CAT 20, and the Bitcoin staking and restaking narrative led by Babylon. However, at the current stage, the ecosystem should concentrate its efforts and work together to push the Bitcoin ecosystem back to the center stage. Only in this way can other high-quality assets and narratives attract more attention.
Waiting for the wind to come
After deciding to buy, everything else is entrusted to time.
The first bull market in the Bitcoin ecosystem occurred in June to July 2023, attracting attention with small Ordinals images and the new asset issuance method represented by BRC-20.
The second Bitcoin ecosystem occurred half a year later, from November 2023 to February 2024, when some BRC-20 tokens were listed on major exchanges and the play of inscriptions was replicated across all chains, giving birth to many stories of overnight wealth, similar to today's Memes.
The third small bull market in the Bitcoin ecosystem occurred around April 2024 when the Rune protocol was officially launched, lasting about a month.
According to past experience, the cycle of bull and bear markets in the Bitcoin ecosystem is 3 to 6 months. Now, it has been half a year since the last bull market. Although there have been some hot projects in the ecosystem that attracted short-term attention, there has not been a large-scale effect. At the end of June this year, Odaily Planet Daily published an article analyzing that the Bitcoin ecosystem bull market may be imminent (related reading: What will be the antidote to bring the Bitcoin ecosystem out of the low period?). Time has passed again for a few months, and we still believe the wind will come.
