Original title: (Focusing on the Nomination of U.S. Treasury Secretary, Can the Crypto Industry Welcome New Allies Again?)

Original author: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily

As the second term of elected President Trump approaches, some key positions in his cabinet have surfaced in recent days, but the competition for the position of Secretary of the Treasury has become increasingly fierce.

According to current market expectations, the nomination of the new Treasury Secretary may be announced as early as this week, but the Trump team has not yet made a decision on the final candidate. This morning, Fox Business reporter Charles Gasparino revealed that the Trump team has sought advice from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and at least one BlackRock executive; in addition, Trump will meet with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong to discuss personnel issues for the next administration.

The prediction market Polymarket has opened a betting pool for the position of Treasury Secretary, and as of around 10:00, the trading volume in this pool has exceeded $2 million. The current popular potential candidates are as follows (only covering the top 6 candidates, remaining candidates have very low odds):

Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh;

Founder of Key Square Group Scott Bessent;

Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick;

Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan;

Former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer;

Senator Bill Hagerty.

Currently, the market is clearly looking forward to a figure with a more friendly attitude towards cryptocurrency taking control of financial power, thereby providing the industry with a more favorable growth environment. Next, Odaily Planet Daily will sequentially analyze the past attitudes of these six potential candidates towards the cryptocurrency industry.

Probability frontrunner: Kevin Warsh

First of all, it is worth celebrating that the current candidate with the highest nomination probability, former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh (46%), has long been seen as a supporter of cryptocurrency— even before Trump's attitudinal shift.

As early as the beginning of 2021, in an interview with CNBC, Warsh stated: 'In a weakening dollar economy, Bitcoin makes sense as part of an investment portfolio.'

In 2022, Warsh also invested in Bitwise, one of the main proponents of ETFs for BTC and ETH.

However, one controversy surrounding Warsh is that he has repeatedly expressed support for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which the decentralized spirit of the cryptocurrency industry may not favor.

The latest news is that the Trump team supports Warsh for the role of U.S. Treasury Secretary, and Warsh has been invited to Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate for discussions, but related discussions are still ongoing.

Soros' former aide: Scott Bessent

Scott Bessent, founder of hedge fund Key Square Group and former aide to Soros, was once regarded as the most likely candidate for the next Treasury Secretary, and his nomination probability had previously led on Polymarket. However, after 'America's Guardian' Elon Musk publicly opposed Bessent's appointment, his nomination probability dropped significantly.

Just as Musk criticized Bessent for 'doing everything the same way', Bessent is seen as a more traditional figure, and the Associated Press has positioned him as 'a skeptic of cryptocurrency' in its reporting.

However, as Trump increasingly supports cryptocurrency, Bessent's attitude has also changed; he stated in July: 'I am excited about the president's acceptance of cryptocurrency, I think this aligns very well with the Republican Party, cryptocurrency represents freedom, and the cryptocurrency economy will continue to exist.'

The latest news is that Bessent may instead take up the position of chair of the National Economic Council, but this outcome is also not yet confirmed.

The man behind Tether: Howard Lutnick

While Elon Musk publicly opposed Bessent, he also openly supported Trump transition team co-chair and Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick. As a result, Lutnick's nomination probability briefly led, but then declined due to rumors of Warsh's imminent appointment.

Lutnick himself is an absolute supporter of cryptocurrency and can even be seen as the most pro-crypto among the major candidates.

Lutnick's Cantor Fitzgerald manages over half of Tether's stablecoin reserves; Lutnick has personally spoken at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville; Lutnick has also advocated for classifying Bitcoin as a commodity similar to gold and oil, calling for clearer regulation in the cryptocurrency space.

The $700 billion steward: Marc Rowan

The name of Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan has only recently been included among potential candidates.

Although Rowan's company focuses on alternative asset investments, he himself rarely comments on cryptocurrency. In 2022, Rowan stated in an interview with Bloomberg that 'the ecosystem built around cryptocurrency is simply amazing'; however, this year, when asked whether cryptocurrency would play a role in the future of the U.S. financial system, he said this topic 'exceeded his understanding'.

The Financial Times reported that some Wall Street executives hold a positive attitude toward Rowan's potential candidacy, but they also believe it would be difficult for Rowan to give up the CEO position of Apollo Global Management, which has assets under management of $700 billion.

'Trade War' Architect: Robert Lighthizer

Robert Lighthizer has not explicitly expressed his stance on cryptocurrency, but the market still needs to pay attention to Lighthizer's potential appointment.

Lighthizer served as the former U.S. Trade Representative during Trump's first term and is regarded as a 'hardcore trade protectionist'. Politico even referred to him as the 'architect' of Trump's tariff trade war with China. The market generally worries that Lighthizer's appointment could impact the vitality and stability of global trade activities.

Cryptocurrency legislation advocate: Bill Hagerty

Tennessee Republican Senator Bill Hagerty has a low probability of becoming Treasury Secretary, but he has actively pushed for the advancement of cryptocurrency-related legislation as a senator.

In October of this year, Hagerty released a legislative discussion draft aimed at establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins. Investment bank TD Cowen stated in a report that this draft could serve as the outline for future legislation in 2025.

Hagerty has also expressed support for Trump's efforts to make the U.S. a cryptocurrency hub and mentioned in July regarding the Bitcoin industry: 'We need to ensure this happens in the U.S.'

Regulatory Spring for Cryptocurrency

In summary, the next U.S. Treasury Secretary candidate is expected to surface soon. From the perspective of potential successors, aside from the ambiguous Robert Lighthizer, most of the names that have emerged are relatively friendly towards cryptocurrency.

For the cryptocurrency industry, which has long suffered from regulatory troubles, the next few years may be the most favorable growth environment in the industry's history. This regulatory spring may be the best opportunity for all parties in the industry to seek development.

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