原文标题： BTC price weekly close nears $90K — 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week
Original author: William Suberg
Original source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-price-weekly-close-nears-90k-5-things-bitcoin-this-week
Translated by: Tom, Mars Finance
Over the next few days, Bitcoin traders will be looking to set new BTC price records — can the market avoid a sharp correction if a massive “fear of missing out” (FOMO) sets in?
Bitcoin opened the new week just shy of a new all-time high and notched its highest weekly close ever.
Bitcoin traders expect price discovery to return this week while viewing $80,000 as a “buy the dip” opportunity.
This week’s closing price set another new record, but BTC price action in November 2024 is still within the expected range.
The market is divided on how the Federal Reserve should deal with the problem of "stagflation".
Despite last week’s all-time high of $93,500 sparking a short-term reaction, whales are still buying BTC and ETF inflows remain high.
Meanwhile, crypto market sentiment indicators are showing increasing signs of overheating, with “extreme greed” levels reaching typical market top territory.
Traders prepare for BTC price swing toward $100,000
Bitcoin saw only a slight drop after a record weekly close, with bears being forced to admit defeat.
Data shows that as of the first Wall Street opening this week, BTC/USD remained above $90,000, with a monthly increase of 30%. These data come from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
BTC/USD one-hour chart Source: TradingView
“Routine early week buying has driven prices higher for now,” trader Skew said in a recent post on the X platform.
Skew noted that on the four-hour time frame, the price is holding above the 21-period exponential moving average (EMA) and highlighted two key levels for this week: $90,000 and $91,300.
BTC/USDT four-hour chart Source: Skew/X
“It would be great if prices could get to $95k-96k quickly this week,” another trader, CrypNuevo, said in an X post over the weekend.
CrypNuevo predicts that a large number of traders may choose to liquidate new positions near $100,000, leading to increased market volatility ahead of this important psychological level.
“Major liquidation levels are above, but there’s also the possibility of a quick run higher near $100K without actually hitting it, then falling back down,” he wrote.
“Why? Because many new traders will enter the market for the first time due to FOMO (fear of missing out), go long or spot and become easy prey.”
BTC/USDT one-hour chart Source: CrypNuevo/X
He added that if the market shows signs of consolidation, $87,000 needs to hold.
Others plan to “buy the dip” on further pullbacks in BTC. For trader Crypto Chase, a suitable entry point is the “gap” area of the daily candle.
“We will eventually pull back to the daily gap. In a bull market, the first gap is the buy point. I still hold the 30% long position opened near $85,000. If it can reach the high of $83,000, I will still buy it,” he told X platform followers.
“The gap down should remain unfilled until the market reverses or turns bearish.”
BTC/USDT daily chart Source: Crypto Chase/X
BTC price hits weekly record close
Last week was undoubtedly a historic victory for Bitcoin bulls.
Not only did BTC/USD record its second consecutive highest weekly close at nearly $90,000, but it also did not see a significant pullback to test new support levels.
Data from monitoring platform CoinGlass showed that Bitcoin rose 11.8% last week, with fourth-quarter gains exceeding 40%.
Looking at monthly performance, BTC price performance in November 2024 is comparable to the average over the past 10 years. But traders believe that this could still change.
BTC/USD monthly return rate (screenshot) Source: CoinGlass
“Historically, this is usually the beginning of a 300-plus day rally,” the trading account CryptoAmsterdam said on the X platform, attaching a comparison chart of Bitcoin’s bull market cycles.
BTC/USD two-week chart Source: CryptoAmsterdam/X
Skew predicts a “series” of new weekly record closes, with BTC/USD attempting to fill the upper shadow of its all-time high of $93,500 reached on November 13.
“BTC has just entered the parabolic phase of this cycle,” said trader and analyst Rekt Capital, citing his own long-term BTC price analysis.
“Historically, this phase lasts about 300 days on average. Bitcoin is only on day 12 of its parabolic phase.”
Questions about the next Fed rate cut
This week, U.S. macroeconomic data was relatively calm, but future financial policies may diverge.
The Federal Reserve faces a situation of "stagflation" -- rising prices and unemployment -- after recent data showed inflation accelerating in October.
That has fueled a mixed view on whether the Fed will cut interest rates in December, with the latest estimate from CME Group’s FedWatch tool putting the chance of a pause at 35%.
Federal Reserve target rate probability Source: CME Group
“Consumer expectations for lower interest rates are high heading into 2025,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter commented at the weekend.
“But now, the Fed seems to be abandoning expectations of a ‘Fed pivot.’ Even though more rate cuts are coming, inflation will remain high.”
Kobeissi noted that this week will see the release of earnings data from tech giant Nvidia, which itself could be a catalyst for volatility in risk assets. In addition, seven senior Federal Reserve officials will speak.
Meanwhile, unemployment data will be released on November 21, and the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and consumer confidence report will be released the next day.
“The Fed’s priority has always been to avoid a situation where unemployment and inflation are both rising, as was the case in the 1970s,” Kobeissi added, attaching a graphic of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the unemployment rate.
“Has the Fed once again failed to avoid stagflation?”
Whales continue to accumulate BTC, ETF flows are complex
This month, massive accumulation by Bitcoin whales and institutional investors has become an important factor supporting the bullish view.
As Cointelegraph reported, as BTC/USD broke through all-time highs and entered the price discovery phase, whale buying operations never stopped.
Data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant confirms that both large and small whale entities continue to increase their BTC holdings.
BTC whale balance data (screenshot) Source: CryptoQuant
When it comes to U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the trend is similar.
“Since its launch in January of this year, the Bitcoin Spot ETF’s holdings have increased significantly, growing by 425,000 BTC from 629,900 BTC to 1,054,500 BTC,” CryptoQuant contributor MAC_D wrote in a Quicktake blog post on November 18 road.
“This equates to an increase of 3.15% to 5.33% of total supply (19.78 million BTC), a 2.18% increase in just eight months.”
US spot Bitcoin ETF holdings (screenshot) Source: CryptoQuant
The impact of this supply and demand dynamic should drive prices higher, MAC_D said.
"The significant price increases in March and November demonstrate the strong correlation between accumulation and prices," the article added.
“Therefore, as the accumulation of Bitcoin through spot ETFs increases, we can expect the price to continue its upward trend.”
US spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows (screenshot) Source: Farside Investors
Data including from British investment firm Farside Investors show that spot ETFs are in a volatile state, with significant net outflows following a large net inflow last week.
Total net outflows exceeded $750 million in the two days ending November 15, after Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high.
Crypto Market’s ‘FOMO’ Brings Price Warning
Research shows that crypto social media “very reliably” marks the peak of every BTC price rally.
Related: Bitcoin Breakout or Black Swan? $9K BTC Price Lacks All-Time Highs for Gold and Stocks
By analyzing the volume of social media discussion around specific terms, such as price, research firm Santiment says that “hype” around the future will peak as prices themselves rise.
“Bitcoin’s stunning rally has now reached a new all-time high of $93,490,” the firm said on Nov. 13.
“Hype on social media platforms marks tops very reliably, with the most significant signal coming 4 hours ago when there was a lot of talk about BTC prices above $100,000.”
Encrypted social media data Source: Santiment/X
Santiment added that signs of massive “FOMO” should be seen as a “warning sign” suggesting that the market rally could reverse.
The latest reading on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows “extreme greed” levels not seen since before Bitcoin’s long-term peak since March.
The index reached 90/100 on November 17, just 5 points below the typical market turning zone.
Crypto Fear and Greed Index (screenshot) Source: Alternative.me
