Bitcoin finally stopped its rapid rise and adjusted around 89k. It once again reached the 9-digit level overnight, and the altcoins also showed signs of stopping their decline. Many fans asked when the altcoins would take off after Bitcoin adjusted its brakes. Let’s look at a few scenarios:
Assume that Bitcoin has a pullback: the pullback range is between 77000→87000 (already reached).
1. The big cake adjusted horizontally, continuously fluctuated to hit small highs, repaired indicators, the MEME season continued, funds switched between various MEME tracks, and the secondary old cottages continued to stay at home;
Second, the depth of Bitcoin adjustment will be greater, MEME will pull back, and secondary altcoins will also suffer, and then the next round of track rotation will begin;
3. Bitcoin and MEME will adjust horizontally, and funds will switch tracks seamlessly, starting the secondary copycat season.
Although Bitcoin has been rising sharply, many people still hold altcoins.
In the past two days, the meme coin sector has been very lively recently. It's like a cheat. Various "mascot" coins are flying! Wright mascot, Pump mascot, An An mascot, OK mascot, BG mascot, LV mascot, pancake mascot, BMW mascot... There are all kinds of them, there is really everything!
The performance of these meme coins is also "exaggerated", with an increase of 5 times, 10 times or even dozens of times. As long as the entry angle is good enough and the market heat is seized, basically you can make a lot of money. Especially the pnut project on the SOL chain, this wave of internal market operations directly brought hot money to a new level and continued to drive the market madness.
When will altcoins start to rise across the board?
Until the Fed signals an end to "quantitative tightening", the altcoin rally will not fully open. The Fed has been reducing its balance sheet since mid-2022, which has been bearish for altcoins. I think the Fed may signal an end to QT at the next FOMC meeting (December), which may mark the beginning of the altcoin rally.
There is currently no sign of a "top":
Some bears believe that the current high open interest (OI) and positive funding rates indicate that the market is leverage-driven, which usually happens at the end of a bull market. But as usual, they are wrong. Here’s why:
- Bitcoin ETF bought 40,000 BTC in just 4 days, equivalent to 3 months of mining supply.
- BTC’s funding rate when it crossed $80,000 was at its lowest level in a long time.
These facts clearly show that the current demand for BTC is real and not driven by the contract market.
In addition to on-chain data, what other signals might indicate a market top? Here are a few possible signs:
1. Google searches for “cheapest altcoins” hit a new high.
2. Crypto companies start buying non-crypto assets (such as sports clubs).
3. Mainstream media such as CNN or CNBC interview some random KOLs.
4. Big stars with more than 100 million fans launch their own Meme coins or NFT projects.
5. Crypto companies begin applying for IPOs.
There are a few points to note when the second-level cottage season starts:
1. ETH SOL BNB These copycat leaders all have subordinates. If a big brother starts a new project, the probability that the subordinates will follow suit is very high.
Second, pull out several commonly used moving averages to form a moving average band. The daily level K-line breaks through the moving average band with large volume, and after stepping back, there is support, and the moving average shows a bullish arrangement; such a currency will be more reassuring, otherwise, if you buy some garbage, it may always be garbage, and then suddenly pull up for a few days when you are not paying attention, the holding experience will be very bad, and we may not be able to wait;
3. Time is short and the task is heavy. I maintain the view that the big cake will adjust horizontally. Next, it depends on whether the main funds of the copycats in the secondary market want to catch this wave. If they want to catch it, we will follow them. If they don’t want to catch it, we have to run away when the time comes. We can’t miss out on the meat of MEME and then get beaten when it’s beaten.
We are currently in the early stages of a rate cut cycle, which means that there will be more liquidity in the cryptocurrency market, and the flow of funds is also directional, from real estate to stocks, and then the excess to the cryptocurrency market. After arriving in the cryptocurrency market, the first thing to do is to fill the mainstream, such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solara. When they have risen to a certain level, the overflow funds will go to the altcoins with smaller market capitalization to pull them up. Looking at the changes in the market value of altcoins this year, we can see that there has been a clear upward trend since September, so there will definitely be a spring for the altcoins. We are currently in the early stages of an outbreak, and we can plan for potential explosion coins in advance.
