Will the expectation of a rate cut in December be dashed?

As soon as Powell's hawkish remarks came out, the US dollar index surged 30 points in the short term, approaching the 107 mark again, while the short-term decline of spot gold further widened to $10.

According to the data from CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed maintaining the current interest rate unchanged in December is 41.3%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 58.7%. By January next year, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged is 29%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 53.6%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 17.6%.

The CME Fed Watch tool shows that the market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 1 point in December to drop sharply from 82.5% the previous day to 58.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged has risen to 41.1%.

Although Powell did not comment on the possibility of a rate cut at the December meeting, it is clear that the Fed is under tremendous pressure after Trump's victory. If Trump fulfills his campaign promises to lower taxes, restrict immigration and increase tariffs, monetary policy will face uncertainty and may be more inclined to maintain the status quo on the issue of rate cuts.

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