Original author: Yano, BlockWorks Co-Founder
Original text translated by: Shenchao TechFlow
The bull market is divided into four phases.
Buckle up, we have just entered the most exciting phase.
Welcome to the third phase~
Just a reminder, the first phase is rebirth
This phase occurs from January 2023 to January 2024.
In the rebirth phase, the fatigue of the bear market is a main characteristic.
Indifference has made all stories lose their appeal.
Your friends and the media are still focused on the collapse of the bear market.
Layoffs are still ongoing.
However, prices are quietly rising.
Bitcoin has tripled.
But you hardly notice because you are still at a loss on many investments.
Only seasoned cryptocurrency investors who have gone through two or more cycles realize the bull market has begun.
Most people still don't believe this is the beginning of a bull market.
The second phase is excitement
This phase started in February 2024 and ended last week.
Some coins are near all-time highs. Market stories are returning, but only a few each quarter.
Everyone in the cryptocurrency space knows we are currently in a bull market.
But strangely, your friends still haven't messaged you.
You are in a strange state of both excitement and anxiety.
Layoffs are basically over, but hiring hasn't restarted yet.
This field feels closed off. No one is leaving, and no new people are joining.
Overall, life is good. Your cryptocurrency friends are all making profits.
This is the calm before the storm.
The third phase is euphoria
We are currently in this phase.
The euphoria phase officially began with the presidential election on November 5.
This is a delightful moment.
Everyone is making money, but speculators have yet to flood in.
Seize the opportunity to enjoy this moment because it will be very brief.
Your assets are about to surpass their all-time highs (if they haven't already).
In the past, there would be only a few new market stories each quarter, but now there are new stories every week.
In the end, there will be a new story almost every day.
No one is tired of these stories—every idea is viewed as a 'good' idea.
Everyone with fans is seen as a genius and has their own insights into new market stories.
Someone will make money on this week's hot coins, I can guarantee they will brag.
This can be frustrating.
(But remember, everyone has their own interests, and no one will share their failures)
New market stories bring new coins.
Coins are rising every day. You won't own most of them.
That week you might earn 8%, but you will feel frustrated for missing out on [the hot new coin].
The combination of new coins and new stories brings about 'Fear of Missing Out' (FOMO).
If you're not careful, FOMO can get you into trouble.
Some advice:
Understand your investment strategy and its pros and cons.
Trading every day? Just know this will affect your work and mental health.
Focusing on building? Just know that you might miss out on some major deals.
Everything has its pros and cons—understand them.
Don't try to do everything, or you will fail.
Back to the third phase.
The private market is about to get exceptionally hot.
It all started with asset allocators. They woke up on November 6th to find their investments in cryptocurrencies severely lacking.
They begin to reach out to venture capital firms and hedge funds for investment allocations.
These companies will announce the launch of large-scale new funds faster than you think.
Late-stage venture capital has been dormant for over two years. Now it will make a strong comeback.
Large funds and an open IPO market mean B-D round companies can raise funds again.
Large financing is becoming the norm again.
A round financing deals are closing rapidly.
This attracts new world-class founders to join.
Hiring is becoming extremely competitive.
Protocols offer enticing token rewards to top talent.
If you are a founder, you have 3-6 months (possibly less) to hire the best talent at a reasonable salary.
After that, you'll need to hustle to catch up.
We are mainstream again.
(Forbes), Bloomberg, CNBC... they are all excited about cryptocurrencies.
Your friend messages you about Cardano. Your financial advisor recommends allocating 5% of Bitcoin.
Traditional finance is racing to 'tokenize everything'
Then, sometime in mid-2025, strange things begin to happen.
Entering the fourth phase: Disconnection
(Fortune) 500 companies announce massive purchases of Bitcoin.
Athletes and artists are starting to get involved—cryptocurrency is penetrating culture.
Venture capital firms are no longer conducting due diligence.
Speculators are raising millions and becoming the focal point.
Random coins skyrocketed 10 times in a week.
In the fourth phase, everyone starts to believe the market will rise forever.
Delusions have influenced decision-making.
This phase can also be described as madness.
Everything has become irrational.
There were new market stories every week in the past.
Now everything has turned into stories.
Your wealth exceeds what you ever imagined.
Your high school friend issued a token, and his net worth has reached tens of millions.
A seasoned investor bought a sports team.
Bieber has launched a decentralized social platform.
Lebron has launched a meme coin.
Major companies are pouring billions into marketing, get ready.
The next 12 months will be a crazy period. For those who focus their efforts, 2025 may become a pivotal year.
But if you're not careful, the arrogance and laziness of the fourth phase may cost you.
Finally, don't forget to enjoy life from time to time.
Now, let's start building.
