Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, published a latest long article today titled (Black or White), which describes the future fiscal measures of the US government and stated that Bitcoin will reach $1 million as the United States continues to create credit. (Preliminary summary: Bitcoin mad bull is coming, how can small-capital players maximize their profits?) (Background supplement: Arthur Hayes adds Ethereum! Santiment predicts: bull market profits will return to ETH) BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes released a statement today The latest long article titled (Black or White?) provides an in-depth analysis of the changes and developments in U.S. financial policy and explores the economic measures that the new Trump administration may take. The article pointed out that the United States has long deviated from pure capitalism. The government has used multiple quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus measures to protect the interests of the rich and deal with the gap between the rich and the poor. Facing new economic challenges, the Trump administration is expected to step up fiscal intervention to promote the return of manufacturing and economic growth, thereby narrowing the gap between rich and poor. Bitcoin is expected to reach $1 million. Hayes also mentioned in the article that the Trump administration will pursue a policy of "weakening the U.S. dollar" and provide necessary funds for the return of U.S. industry. In addition, Hayes believes that the Republicans will also subsidize companies and allow bank credit growth to surge through a (chip bill) similar to the Biden administration: The Republicans will first pass a bill to incentivize manufacturers of key goods and materials to expand domestic production. These will be similar to the (Chip Act), (Infrastructure Act) and (Green New Deal) passed by the Biden administration. As businesses receive government subsidies and receive loans, bank credit growth will explode until at some point the Fed capitulates, at least exempting Treasury securities and central bank reserves from the SLR burden. By then, the path to unlimited quantitative easing will be clear, Hayes said. And the combination of legislated industrial policy coupled with SLR exemptions will result in an influx of bank credit. In this regard, Hayes said that the performance of the crypto market will be similar to the bull market from March 2020 to November 2021, or even better. The purpose of setting the SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio) is to limit banks' excessive leverage operations, that is, to prevent banks from relying on highly leveraged investments while having too low capital reserves. In addition, Hayes also pointed out that the United States previously injected approximately US$4 trillion in credit during the COVID-19 epidemic, and the current situation may be even more serious. The growth rate of expenditures in the defense and medical fields alone has already exceeded the nominal GDP. The situation of elderly people is getting worse day by day, and the future expenditure growth may gradually increase. In terms of labor, if the government wants to transfer productivity from China, where labor is cheap, to the United States, Hayes predicts that the financing cost to achieve this goal will be approximately US$6 to 14 trillion. Hayes went on to say that it took the United States $4 trillion to reduce the debt-to-nominal GDP ratio from 132% to 115%. Assuming that the United States further reduces the ratio to the 70% level in September 2008, it would have to create $10.5 trillion in credit to achieve the goal. . All the above reasons led Hayes to boldly predict that Bitcoin will reach US$1 million due to the investment hedging craze in various countries. Arthur Hayes's portfolio list On the other hand, Arthur Hayes also mentioned that in the future, people who hold bonds and savings deposits for a long time may suffer a loss in yields under the deliberate control of the US government. But Hayes also shares a corresponding portfolio: Instead of saving in fiat bonds or bank deposits, buy gold (a financial restraint hedge for baby boomers) or Bitcoin (a financial restraint hedge for millennials). Hayes further explained that the hierarchy of his portfolio starts with Bitcoin, then other cryptocurrencies and cryptocurrency-related company equity, then gold, and finally stocks. As for fiat, Hayes said he would keep a little to pay his bills: I would keep a small amount of dirty fiat in a money market fund to pay my American Express bill. Related reports: Bitcoin surged 10%, "breaking through $89,000" to a new high! MicroStrategy added 27,000 BTC to its position, and the stock price soared. It is bearish on Bitcoin! CryptoQuant CEO warns of "falling below 59,000 magnesium" by the end of the year, and you will get 0.1 BTC for guessing the price CZ: If you believe that "Bitcoin is dead", you can only blame yourself... BTC hits the $90,000 mark" Arthur Hayes New Opinion: Trump’s administration will launch unlimited QE, and Bitcoin is expected to reach $1 million. This article was first published on BlockTempo (the most influential blockchain news media).

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