An obvious trend is that funds are flowing into the MOVE system public chain. If we look at the TVL growth situation for SUI and APT this year, we can see that both are exhibiting a very clear upward trend.
In the secondary market response, SUI has set a new high, while APT's price has only reached half of its peak.
Earlier in August, I wrote an article on the MOVE system, analyzing the advantages that SUI exhibited within the MOVE ecosystem. Based on this logic, I also extended expectations for $CETUS being launched on BN.
This article will lay out some basic situations of APT from data and ecological fundamentals: Can APT take over SUI and show the same market performance?
1. Data Situation🔻
In a report I produced a few days ago, there was data showing that in October, Aptos's TVL grew by 57.1%, while the TVL growth for the two most active chains, Solana and Base, during the same period was 13.4% and 22.2%, respectively.
Of course, there is also a matter of scale, but if we pull out APT's TVL growth data, we can see that its growth trend is very stable. This trend's effect has not yet correlated with the secondary market's performance.
According to the latest data on defillama, Aptos's TVL has just surpassed $1 billion, ranking 13th overall, surpassing Optimism.
-In terms of daily active addresses, Aptos's growth in the recent quarter was nearly eightfold, increasing from nearly 100,000 to 850,000, and TVL grew from 370 million to 970 million.
-The daily trading volume has also synchronized with growth.
-VS $SUI
At the same time, in terms of daily trading data, Aptos is found to be superior to SUI. The reason disclosed by the data website is that a Tap to Earn ecosystem on Aptos has driven the activity of on-chain transactions, resulting in Aptos's on-chain transaction data being higher than SUI's in the recent quarter.
However, even so, it must be said that SUI's overall situation is more advantageous than Aptos, whether in terms of market attention or ecological development. SUI has the upper hand, but purely from an ecological perspective, there are significant differences between the two ecosystems.
2. Ecological Situation🔻
When we examine the ecosystems on SUI and Aptos, although both tend to be DeFi, we will find that SUI's leading DeFi protocol is heavily invested in the lending sector, with three out of the top five in TVL being in the lending track, while the other two are DEX. However, on Aptos, among the top five protocols, only one is lending, while the others are mainly related to liquid staking.
The infrastructure DEX is only ranked sixth, which also reflects the low monthly DEX trading volume data for Aptos. In fact, before CETUS was launched on BN, I not only publicly stated my expectations for CETUS's launch on BN but also expressed that I am not very optimistic about the lending segment being launched on BN.
This perspective is applicable not only to SUI but also to Aptos.
Therefore, from the perspective of the MOVE ecosystem and the top protocols launched on BN, I actually think the focus should be more on Aptos. I will briefly list and introduce three non-lending protocols ranked in the top five by TVL, among which some have already issued tokens, still aiming for the expectations of being listed on BN.
-Amnis Finance @AmnisFinance
This is the leading liquid staking protocol on Aptos. APT holders can stake their APT through Amnis and earn returns. You can understand this business as an APT version of Lido + Pendle. This protocol has also received support from the Aptos Foundation and secured a $2 million funding round in September this year.
Recently, a retrospective airdrop activity lasting 6-12 months has been launched, with a prize pool amounting to 1% of its total token supply. The more APT is staked, the more points will be earned in this activity.
-Thala @ThalaLabs
This is a leading stablecoin protocol on Aptos, currently ranked third in TVL. Its core product is an over-collateralized stablecoin called Move Dollar (MOD), and its business can be understood as an APT version of Maker DAO (now called Sky; the brand upgrade is quite complex).
However, its business composition naturally includes some collateral, but the core business still revolves around promoting stablecoin products, and it can also support liquid staking.
I am more optimistic about its expectations for being launched on BN next, and in recent days its token price has started to rise. Currently, the market circulation is over 40 million, with a circulation rate of nearly half.
The view is clear: Aptos ecosystem coins, betting on the expectations of BN, are currently what I am most optimistic about.
-Tapos @taposcat
This was when the Tap to Earn narrative was at its hottest, with a similar Tap to Earn ecosystem launched on Aptos, which I mentioned earlier. This click game has brought a certain driving effect to Aptos's on-chain activity and daily active users.
Recently, the Tap to Earn narrative has stagnated with the temporary retreat of TON, and the market has criticized this token distribution method. Therefore, I have seen this project actively changing its label and moving towards gaming. I noticed that this will be a key area for Aptos's future development, so it can be worth paying attention to.
I won't go into detail about the remaining ecosystems, such as Echo, which combines BTCFi and the MOVE ecosystem into a staking protocol, and TruStake, which is a staking protocol with relatively low market popularity.
Overall, we can see that currently, Aptos's ecological development is somewhat similar to a small-scale Ethereum ecosystem. Among the top five protocols, the composition of businesses is almost the same, with lending protocols ranking second in TVL, and the rest are mainly liquid staking and stablecoins.
3. Unique Dual-Chain Driven Ecological Pattern🔻
The MOVE ecosystem is different from other ecosystems, where one only needs to focus on a leading infrastructure project. If we look at the MOVE ecosystem, we should treat it as a whole rather than distinguishing between SUI or APT.
At this stage and for the foreseeable future, SUI is undoubtedly the leader, while APT is undoubtedly the runner-up, which has created a unique dual-chain driven pattern for the MOVE ecosystem.
Therefore, based on this, I believe the current focus on APT lies in the fact that SUI has entered a new high phase, and from some recent MOVE system actions, the inflow of funds will not only stay on SUI. At least before reaching APT's resistance level (about 30% away), one can speculate on APT's rebound.
The next stage is to speculate around the price pressure level of 18. If it breaks through, it will form a W-bottom, which will determine whether the entire MOVE ecosystem can have a sustained development.
Some views, I hope they can be helpful to you. Thank you for reading and following.