Original source: Yano X account
Author: Yano, BlockWorks Co-Founder
Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow
The bull market is divided into four phases.
Buckle up, we have just entered the most exciting phase.
Welcome to the third phase~
Reminder, the first phase is rebirth.
This phase occurs from January 2023 to January 2024.
In the rebirth phase, the fatigue of the bear market is a major characteristic.
Apathy makes all stories lose their appeal.
Your friends and the media are still focused on the collapse of the bear market.
Layoffs continue.
However, prices are quietly rebounding.
Bitcoin has tripled.
But you hardly notice because you're still at a loss on many investments.
Only seasoned cryptocurrency investors who have experienced more than two cycles realize the bull market has begun.
Most people still don't believe this is the beginning of a bull market.
The second phase is excitement.
This phase began in February 2024 and ended last week.
Some coins are nearing historical highs. The market narrative returns, but only a few each quarter.
Everyone in the cryptocurrency space knows we are now in a bull market.
But strangely, your friends still haven't messaged you.
You are in a strange state of both excitement and anxiety.
Layoffs are basically over, but hiring has not yet restarted.
This field seems closed off. No one leaves, and no newcomers join.
Overall, life is good. Your cryptocurrency friends are all profiting.
This is the calm before the storm.
The third phase is euphoria.
We are currently in this phase.
The euphoria phase officially begins with the presidential election on November 5.
This is a delightful moment.
Everyone is making money, but speculators have not yet flooded in.
Seize the opportunity to enjoy this moment, as it will be very brief.
The assets you hold are about to surpass historical highs (if they haven't already).
In the end, there will be new stories almost every day.
No one is tired of these stories—every idea is seen as a 'good' idea.
Everyone with fans is seen as a genius and has their own insights into the new market narrative.
Someone will make money on this week's hot coins, I can guarantee they will brag about it.
This may be frustrating.
(But remember, everyone has their own interests, and no one will share their failures.)
New market narratives bring new coins.
Coins rise every day. You won't own most of them.
That week you might earn 8%, but you'll feel frustrated for missing out on [the hot new coin].
The combination of new coins and new stories brings 'Fear of Missing Out' (FOMO).
If you're not careful, FOMO can get you into trouble.
Some advice:
Understand your investment strategy and its pros and cons.
Trading every day? Know that this will affect your work and mental health.
Focusing on building? Know that you might miss some significant deals.
Everything has its pros and cons—understand them.
Don't try to do everything, or you won't succeed.
Back to the third phase.
The private market is about to get exceptionally hot.
It all started with asset allocators. They woke up on November 6 and realized they were significantly underinvested in cryptocurrency.
They start to reach out to venture capital firms and hedge funds for investment allocations.
These companies will announce large-scale new funds faster than you think.
Late-stage venture capital has been quiet for over two years. Now it will make a strong comeback.
Large-scale funds and an open IPO market mean B-D round companies can raise funds again.
Large financings are once again becoming the norm.
Series A funding deals close swiftly.
This attracts new world-class founders to join.
Hiring starts to become very competitive.
The protocol offers enticing token rewards to top talent.
If you are a founder, you have 3-6 months (possibly less) to hire top talent at a reasonable salary.
After this, you'll need to work hard to catch up.
We become mainstream once again.
(Forbes), Bloomberg, CNBC... they are all enthusiastic about cryptocurrency.
Your friend messages you about Cardano. Your financial advisor suggests allocating 5% to Bitcoin.
Traditional finance races to 'tokenize everything.'
Then, sometime around mid-2025, strange things start to happen.
Entering the fourth phase: Disconnection.
(Fortune) 500 companies announce massive Bitcoin purchases.
Athletes and artists start to get involved—cryptocurrency permeates culture.
Venture capital firms are no longer conducting due diligence.
Speculators raise millions and become focal points.
Random coins surge tenfold within a week.
In the fourth phase, everyone starts to believe the market will only go up.
Delusions affect decision-making.
This phase can also be described as madness.
Everything becomes unreasonable.
New market stories appeared weekly in the past.
Now everything has turned into a narrative.
Your wealth exceeds what you ever imagined.
Your high school friend issued a token, and his net worth reached tens of millions.
An experienced investor buys a sports team.
Bieber launched a decentralized social platform.
Lebron launched a Meme coin.
Major companies are investing billions in marketing, so be prepared.
The next 12 months will be a crazy time. For those focused, 2025 could be a pivotal year.
But if you're not careful, the arrogance and laziness of the fourth phase could cost you.
Lastly, don't forget to enjoy life from time to time.
Now, let's start building.
