Trade policy: If Trump is re-elected, he will continue to pursue protectionist trade policies, including raising tariffs and renegotiating trade agreements. This will have an impact on the global trading system, potentially shrinking the scale of international trade and altering its direction, especially negatively affecting emerging markets closely tied to U.S. trade, such as Mexico.
Inflation and monetary policy: Trump's policies may lead to short-term inflation increases, as his plans for tax cuts and increased government spending could exacerbate supply-demand imbalances, pushing up prices. This will impact the global inflation environment, especially as emerging markets may face risks of capital outflows and currency devaluation.
Dollar exchange rate: The results of the U.S. election will also affect the exchange rate of the dollar. If Trump is elected, a comprehensive increase in tariffs may strengthen the dollar, which has significant implications for global financial markets and trade.
Global economic landscape: This will also affect the global political and economic landscape. Trump is likely to adopt a tougher foreign policy, which may lead to tense international political relations, impacting the global trade and investment environment.
Impact on specific industries: For example, export-oriented companies like German automakers and luxury brands faced difficulties after the U.S. election results were announced, as trade tensions may escalate again. Additionally, the renewable energy sector may be affected by policy changes.
Cryptocurrency and technology policy: Trump and the Republican Party strongly support the development of cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence in the tech sector, which will inevitably have a positive impact on related industries.
In summary, Trump's election will not only affect domestic economic policies in the United States but will also have far-reaching impacts on the global economy through various channels such as trade, inflation, and exchange rates.