The Federal Reserve lowered rates by 25 basis points to 4.50%-4.75% at its meeting last Friday, with a unanimous vote of 12-0, compared to 11-1 in September, marking the Fed's second consecutive rate cut. After the U.S. election, Bitcoin broke through $70,000; the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, and Bitcoin broke through $80,000, reaching $85,000 on Tuesday.
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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed its decision on whether to approve ETH spot ETF options for further analysis and to gather public opinions, particularly regarding whether the proposed rule changes meet the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act. The SEC emphasized concerns about the potential impact of the proposal on preventing market manipulation, protecting investors, and ensuring a fair trading system. The Wall Street Journal: If Trump tries to fire Fed Chair Powell, Powell is ready for a legal battle. The White House stated that at Biden's invitation, Trump will meet with Biden at the White House at 11 AM local time on the 13th. No further details have been released. Data from S3 Partners shows that from Election Day to last Friday's close, hedge funds holding short positions in Tesla have incurred paper losses of at least $5.2 billion. BTC recorded a 16.9% increase last week, with a maximum increase of 21.7%, marking the second-largest increase week after the approval of the U.S. BTC spot ETF. Zhu Su, founder of the bankrupt Three Arrows Capital, stated that the least known 'secret' is that the profits made from buying assets at new highs far exceed any other strategy, and it's not just a small amount. According to DefiLlama data, the market capitalization of stablecoins grew by 3.04% over the past week, reaching $178.115 billion. Lookonchain indicated that based on indicators such as the rainbow chart, Relative Strength Index (RSI), 200-week moving average heat map, cumulative value of destroyed coins days (CVDD), and 2-year MA multiplier, although BTC has reached a new all-time high, it has not yet reached peak bull market levels.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that the BTC market trend is indicating that Trump may adopt a large-scale dollar printing fiscal policy. BTC's trend leads his newly created money supply indicator 'U.S. Bank Credit,' with market performance being more eloquent. Analyst Alistair Milne stated that $100,000 is an obvious target for BTC, predicting that there may be a 20-25% correction before reaching this milestone, but afterwards BTC may directly break through the $100,000 mark, triggering a 'generational FOMO' phenomenon. Analyst Cobie commented that the journey from $80,000 to $100,000 is a tough road, while from $100,000 to $250,000 is an easy journey. Ari Paul, founder of BlockTower, stated that we are currently in the earlier stages of the overall bull market (approximately 70% or 66% progress), with recent buyers preparing for a rise in the next 6-12 months, more from institutions rather than retail speculation. He personally expects the market to produce a relatively 'gradual' rebound at this stage, and we may see BTC at $90,000 or even $125,000. Last week, the U.S. BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $1.6362 billion, with BlackRock IBIT net inflow of $1.2511 billion; Fidelity FBTC net inflow of $295.4 million. The U.S. ETH spot ETF net inflow was $154.7 million, with the weekly net inflow reaching an all-time high. Over the past 3 days, Tether issued a total of $4 billion in stablecoins. The U.S. BTC spot ETF has had a cumulative net inflow of $25.857 billion since its launch in January this year. Among them, BlackRock IBIT has a net inflow of $27.387 billion; Fidelity FBTC has a net inflow of $10.761 billion; Grayscale GBTC has a net outflow of $20.141 billion.
Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick reported that BTC prices are expected to continue rising until the end of the year, reaching $100,000 before the BTC options expire on December 27. The BTC price is projected to reach $125,000 by the end of this year or on January 20 when Trump takes office. The rise in BTC prices may bring a ripple effect, with SOL hitting an all-time high before the end of the year and ETH also reaching an all-time high when Trump is inaugurated. Overall, it is believed that all tokens will rise. The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.50%-4.75% at its meeting last Friday, with a unanimous vote of 12-0, compared to 11-1 in September, marking the Fed's second consecutive rate cut. Powell stated that today the Fed lowered interest rates to further adjust its monetary policy stance, with a basic expectation to gradually adjust rates to a neutral level, without wanting the labor market to slow excessively on this basis. The Fed has just begun to consider adjusting the pace of rate cuts; if asked by Trump to resign, I will not resign, and I will not comment on Trump’s impact on the Fed's independence, nor will I speculate, guess, or hypothesize. It is unclear how Trump's policies will affect the Fed's objectives, and once legislation is actually passed, fiscal policy will be included in the model. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data for 3-month and 6-month periods show significant progress, with confidence in returning inflation to the 2% target. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, potentially slowing its easing policy. Deutsche Bank: The Fed's rate decision in December may be contentious, and slowing the pace of rate cuts is an option. JPMorgan: The Fed's focus is on employment, and the pace of easing depends on the labor market. Evercore ISI: The bull market in U.S. stocks has just begun, predicting a target price of 6600 for the S&P 500 by 2025 (currently at 5989).
After the U.S. election, BTC broke through $70,000, and the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, with BTC breaking through $80,000, reaching $85,000 on Tuesday. ETH/BTC has risen 17% since hitting the bottom on November 6, reaching 0.04, as altcoins experienced a wave of increases. BTC's market share has dropped from 61% to 55.18%, transitioning from a one-way bloodsucking to a transfusion for altcoins. The old man was previously writing that if Bitcoin could break through its high, the future return rate would diminish, greedy capital is expected to choose other coins with re-evaluated prospects again. With a target of $100,000, the return for a $70,000 Bitcoin is 42%, which is a high return; the return rate for an $80,000 Bitcoin is 25%, and the return prospects are gradually weakening, corresponding to the gradual decline in Bitcoin's market share and the rise in other coins' market shares. (Refer to the previous cycle, where BTC's market share soared to 70% at the end of 2020, then dropped to 39% in May of the following year, during which time other coins rose, indicating a bull market.) From a fundamental perspective, the Fed has cut rates a total of 75 basis points over two consecutive cuts. Rate cuts mean dollars flow out into so-called risk markets, such as U.S. stocks/gold and crypto markets. Its impact is visibly seen, as last week the U.S. stock indices, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 recorded their best single-week performance of the year, with Bitcoin following traditional markets to share the pie. A third rate cut is expected in December, and the balance sheet reduction is expected to end by the end of this year or early next year. The market is not significantly different from previous cycles and is entering a cyclical bull market in a standard manner.#BTC连续破新高，你看到多少？
