In the past few days, Bitcoin has been continuously refreshing its historical high points, and many friends outside the cryptocurrency circle can no longer hold back. Today, I will provide a relatively comprehensive analysis from a technical perspective.
From a larger cycle analysis, Bitcoin is currently in the divergence segment of the weekly level rising trend, and this divergence segment has not yet completed. This rise started in December 2022, with the first segment of the rise from December 2022 to April 2023 (0-1), the second segment from September 2023 to March 2024 (2-3), and the third segment starting from early October 2024, which has not yet completed. In other words, this bull market has lasted nearly two years, and we are now in the late stage of the bull market. If the bull market is to continue, the strength of the rise starting in October must exceed the strength of the second segment of the rise, which is 2-3, from 25,000 to 73,000. It is actually quite difficult to surpass this. This is also the reason I said that the bull market of the past two years is currently in the late or final stage.
From the internal analysis of the divergence segment between 4-5, the internals are not divergent. This means that the bull market of the past two years has reached its late stage, but the mid-term rise in this late stage has not yet ended. The rise after the first red box is obviously stronger than the rise before the first red box, which can also be seen from the MACD indicator below. Therefore, another red box must be formed for this wave of rise to end. In other words, before the second red box appears, the long positions entered around the first red box do not need to worry. As mentioned a few days ago during analysis, after breaking through the upper line of the daily channel, it will change from resistance to support, which is now confirmed. However, once the second red box appears, caution is required. If the daily line pulls up for a few more days after that, it will indeed be the final frenzy, unless this final frenzy can directly pull up to above 120,000, allowing the internal divergence between 4 and 5 to break away again, or even pull up to 150,000 to avoid divergence on the weekly line; otherwise, we will face a relatively long bear market.
From a shorter-term perspective, currently, 6-9 are in the internal rise starting from 4, belonging to the second segment of the daily rise that started in October. Currently, the second segment is also not divergent, which can also be seen from the MACD below. The price at 9 corresponds to a green line that is higher than the position of the green line when at 7. However, the rise from 8-9 is divergent. That’s why I said this morning that there is short-term risk above 81,000, meaning that a short-term adjustment is needed here, which may last just one to two days before continuing to rise. If it does not rise afterwards or the strength of the rise is very small, then a second red box must be formed on the daily chart, which would not be a good thing for the entire bull market. It would be best to consolidate here for a day or two before making a strong rise, and then form the daily red box, so the market remains quite uncertain.
Alright, this is a relatively comprehensive pure technical analysis of Bitcoin from long-term to mid-term to short-term for reference only.
