Lawyers suggest that the lawsuit could be resolved with a potential settlement of $125 million if the SEC's leadership changes.
Some of them believe that a complete dismissal of the case is 'unrealistic.'
A Possible Settlement Next Year?
The lawsuit between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) began in 2020, when the watchdog accused the company and some of its executives of illegally profiting over $1.3 billion in an unregistered securities offering by selling XRP.
The case has gone through many ups and downs in the following years, with Ripple winning some significant victories (but only partially) in court. In the summer of 2023, for example, Judge Torres ruled that the company's sale of XRP to retail investors on cryptocurrency exchanges did not violate securities laws. However, earlier this year, she determined that Ripple's direct sale of its native token to institutional investors violated federal securities laws, thereby penalizing the business $125 million.
The company seems willing to pay the penalty, thus settling the lawsuit. However, the SEC has prolonged it by appealing the aforementioned 2023 ruling. The regulator's action means that an official resolution of the legal battle could occur in the coming years.
However, Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election could bring the conclusion closer. At least, that is what American lawyer Jeremy Hogan has assumed.
Trump promises to fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler on the first day after taking office. While his inauguration is expected to take place on January 20, Hogan believes Gensler will resign before that date.
He predicts that the new agency leadership could dismiss all the fraudulent cryptocurrency lawsuits that the regulator has filed over the years. This proposal is expected to be approved by the Commissioners as this department will be made up of Republicans.
According to Hogan, such an outcome would lead to settling the Ripple v. SEC case for the amount already specified by the court as $125 million.
"It would be... awkward if a settlement is reached for less than what the Court has awarded! The Coinbase lawsuits and others will simply be dismissed. This will take some time. Not in January, but maybe before summer. That's my prediction, and I will stick to that," the lawyer concluded.
An Additional Opinion
Fred Rispoli – another American lawyer who has been following updates around the Ripple v. SEC legal dispute – also commented. He stated that Trump's election should be seen as 'good news' as it would lead to 'extreme changes' at the agency. He thinks those amendments will take effect in March or April next year.
In contrast to Hogan, Rispoli believes that dismissing the lawsuit is 'unrealistic.' In his view, the $125 million penalty is the biggest victory the SEC could achieve. The lawyer also predicts that the potential new leadership of the regulatory agency will 'realize that this entire lawsuit is silly and will settle at that point.'
"This could include a reduction in the penalty and an agreement that Ripple's current sales of XRP are structured sufficiently not to constitute an investment contract," Rispoli added.
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