Is a violent bull market about to come?!
Bitcoin halving bull + Trump taking office + continued interest rate cuts
Currently, Bitcoin continues to reach new highs, and ETH, SOL, and many other coins are also starting to surge. Now everyone’s sentiment has improved a lot; previously, Bitcoin alone surged, and the atmosphere of a bull market was not felt at all.
Only when all coins rise together, and the small coins in everyone’s hands also see an increase, can we feel the joy of making money. This is the true bull market!
Trump's cryptocurrency commitments
Trump will take office as President of the United States on January 20 next year, and the Republican Party has already gained control of the Senate. Although the situation in the House of Representatives is not yet settled, the Republican Party currently holds a leading position. If they successfully take the House, it will create a situation of full governance.
This will benefit Trump in fulfilling his cryptocurrency commitments made during the campaign, including firing SEC Chair Gary Gensler, incorporating Bitcoin into the national strategic reserve, and making the U.S. a Bitcoin superpower. The following diagram summarizes this; over the next 4 years, we can jointly monitor and witness whether Trump will keep his promises.
Bitcoin reaches new highs, and the chance for altcoins to rotate is high.
With Bitcoin breaking new highs and maintaining a market share of around 60%, based on previous bull market experiences, when Bitcoin's market share remains at a high point of 60%, altcoin season is expected to arrive soon. Compared to the past, this cycle is generally believed to be influenced by the significant influx of funds and institutional purchases brought by Bitcoin spot ETFs, which is one of the main factors affecting the rise in Bitcoin prices.
According to Grayscale's October crypto report, the net inflow of American spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) in October was $5.3 billion, the highest level since February, with total net inflows exceeding $24.2 billion. American ETPs currently hold about 5% of the total Bitcoin supply.
However, it also points out that due to the existence of Bitcoin 'basis trading,' that is, buying Bitcoin (through ETPs) while selling Bitcoin (through futures), the inflow of spot Bitcoin ETPs does not have as large an impact on Bitcoin price increases as imagined. Grayscale estimates that out of the $24.2 billion net inflow into U.S. ETPs, about $5 billion (about 20%) may be used for hedging spot/futures positions.
Therefore, in addition to traditional financial market funds such as Bitcoin spot ETFs and institutional purchases, there are still many active crypto funds or retail funds in the market pushing up Bitcoin prices. As Bitcoin reaches new highs and Trump takes office, crypto regulation may change, making it more likely for these funds to rotate to the altcoin market, signaling the arrival of altcoin season.
After a big surge, pay attention to short-term fluctuations caused by capital outflows during the weekend. The overall trend remains bullish, and the target for new highs remains unchanged. Pay attention to the risk of pullbacks in the short term. For Bitcoin, since there are no more positive news, the 80s level may not be seen in the short term, and there is a demand for a certain pullback. Buy the dip at BTC 75666-74855. Protect at 74500. If it breaks below, add positions at 74155-73800. Total position should not exceed 25% (based on 20x leverage).
Many fans ask what altcoins to heavily invest in besides BTC and SOL during this round of correction, what kind of coins to moderately and lightly invest in, and which coins are for the ant warehouse? Let me share my views, which may not be correct and are for reference only.
1. Heavily invested coins
It is best for coins to be listed on Binance, have been listed for more than 6 months with secondary market adjustments, and have bottomed out with continuous accumulation for 3 months. It is best if they are fully circulated. There are many coins that meet the criteria; I will only mention a few representatives:
MEW, MYRO, BOME, TAO, ORDI, SATS, RATS, METIS, ARKM, APE
2. Moderately invested coins
It is best for coins to be listed on more than 3 major exchanges, have undergone around 6 months of adjustment in the secondary market, have a bottom that has sustained for 3 months, and have accumulation by the whale.
PEPECOIN, NEIRO, 1000cat, PIZZA, DOG, DYM, STRK, SAGA, SKL, MANTA, MERL, ELON, PIXEL, YGG, PORTAL, BIGTIME, WLD, TIA, TRU, MASK, ETHFI, ENS
To explain, it does not mean that the second type of coins cannot be heavily invested in; specific coins need to be researched in-depth by oneself. This is just sharing my own opinion; some second type coins are not fully circulated, and some have not been listed on major exchanges.
3. Lightly invested coins
This kind of coin has been listed on several small exchanges, has a low market cap, is less liquid, has no mainstream market attention, has adjusted in the secondary market for more than half a year, and some show signs of accumulation by whales, carrying higher risks, and profits may not be large. Specific coins need in-depth research.
ETHS, ATOMARC, QUARK, MSN, BILLY, APU, SILLY, TROLL, SEAL, PANDORA
4. Ant warehouse coins
Mainly coins that are on-chain, have a good narrative recently, have high heat and traffic, and have adjusted for about a month.
TERMINUS, DOGGO, MOODENG, KHEOWZOO, PNUT, BAN, ACT, GOAT. Of course, some people have good vision and dare to heavily invest on-chain, resulting in hundreds of times returns later. Others blindly follow trends, participating in large amounts on-chain, and when the bull market comes, they lose all their principal. Don't underestimate tenfold returns in the secondary market. Investing slowly is fast.
