Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Golem (@web3_golem)
On November 6, the highly anticipated U.S. election finally concluded, with Republican presidential candidate Trump announcing his victory in the 2024 presidential election. Trump is referred to as the 'crypto president' for his multiple public commitments to support the development of the crypto industry after taking office. Under the favorable conditions of Trump's victory, Bitcoin refreshed its historical high on voting day, briefly breaking above $75,000, with Bitcoin peaking at $76,848 early this morning, continuing to set new highs.
As of the time of writing, according to CoinGecko and TradingView data, the total market value of cryptocurrencies is $2.672 trillion, with Bitcoin's market share at 59.86%. Although Bitcoin's market share remains high, the altcoin market is also warming up this month. According to Quantify Crypto data, over the past week, among the top 200 cryptocurrencies by market value, besides BTC, 173 tokens have seen an increase, with SOL up over 17%, DOGE up over 20%, UNI up over 14%, LDO up over 22%, and so on.
So, can the altcoin market's upward trend continue after November? Which altcoins are worth paying attention to? Odaily Planet Daily will attempt to analyze the current favorable factors for the altcoin market in this article, while gathering various institutions' views on the future of the altcoin market, and finally consider which altcoins are worth focusing on from a trading perspective.
With Trump's administration, the altcoin market may usher in a regulatory spring
Trump elected as the next U.S. president, both traditional financial markets and the crypto market are beginning to digest Trump's election victory.
In the traditional financial market, the dollar and U.S. treasuries surged due to the election results, but Trump's previously mentioned plans to reduce immigration, impose widespread tariffs, and cut taxes may push inflation higher, resulting in declines in gold and oil prices after the election results.
In the crypto market, Bitcoin prices reacted first to Trump's victory, continuously hitting new highs. During his campaign, Trump made several promises regarding the crypto industry, including not supporting CBDCs and establishing a Bitcoin national reserve (details in the image below). For the altcoin market, which faces stricter regulations, if these crypto-friendly regulatory policies can continue to be implemented, it will truly promote the recovery of the altcoin market.
In 2024, the 'number one enemy' of the crypto industry, the U.S. SEC, has imposed fines amounting to $4.68 billion on the crypto sector, with multiple crypto companies being accused by the SEC, including Binance, Coinbase, ConsenSys, and Uniswap. After Trump takes office, there is a high probability that the SEC's vigilance over the crypto industry will relax.
On November 6, pro-crypto Republican Bernie Moreno defeated Ohio Democratic senator Sherrod Brown to successfully gain a Senate seat in Ohio, and the Republicans have gained control of the Senate. To secure Bernie Moreno's seat, the pro-crypto super PAC 'Defend American Jobs' spent $40.1 million in support.
This position is particularly focused on in the crypto sector because Brown currently holds the position of Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, which is one of the most influential committees in the Senate, overseeing the SEC and CFTC. Therefore, the appointment of crypto-friendly Bernie Moreno is expected to facilitate the passage of many crypto-related bills.
At the same time, the current chairman of the U.S. SEC, Gary Gensler, will also be replaced, and Trump may appoint a 'crypto-friendly chairman'... (Related reading: Who will be the new chairman of the SEC after Gary Gensler?)
The above regulatory trends indicate that after the Trump administration takes office, the regulatory pressure faced by the altcoin market will improve, ushering in a regulatory spring.
Bitcoin's new high increases the likelihood of altcoin rotation
As Bitcoin breaks new highs and maintains a market share of around 60%, based on historical bull market experience, when Bitcoin's market share remains at a high of 60%, the altcoin season will soon arrive. Compared to previous cycles, the general view in this round is that Bitcoin spot ETFs have brought a large influx of funds and institutional purchases, which is one of the main factors affecting Bitcoin's price increase.
According to Grayscale's October crypto report, the net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETP) in October was $5.3 billion, the highest level since February, and the total net inflow has exceeded $24.2 billion. U.S. ETPs currently hold about 5% of the total supply of Bitcoin.
However, it also points out that due to the existence of Bitcoin's 'basis trading', i.e., buying Bitcoin (through ETP) while simultaneously selling Bitcoin (through futures), the inflow of spot Bitcoin ETP does not have as significant an impact on Bitcoin's price increase as imagined. Grayscale estimates that out of the $24.2 billion net inflow into U.S. ETPs, about $5 billion (approximately 20%) may be used for paired spot/futures positions.
Therefore, in addition to the traditional financial market funds such as Bitcoin spot ETFs and institutional purchases, there are still many active crypto funds or retail funds in the market pushing Bitcoin's price up. As Bitcoin reaches new highs and Trump takes office with potential changes in crypto regulation, these funds are more likely to rotate into the altcoin market, leading to the arrival of altcoin season.
How do various institutions view the trend of altcoins in the future?
Previously, multiple institutions remained pessimistic about the future trend of the altcoin market, believing that Bitcoin would absorb a large amount of crypto funds.
Top trader Eugene stated at the end of October on the X platform that the price trends in October truly showcased the PvP level of the current cryptocurrency environment, indicating that although traditional financial funds are flowing in to purchase Bitcoin, no one is buying altcoins. Users can make money in certain ways (such as GOAT and early AI Meme), but it is equally easy to give all profits back to the market due to subsequent panic buying.
Matrixport stated on November 5 that under multiple favorable factors, Bitcoin's market share rose from 50% to 60%, but altcoins are constrained by declining user activity and token unlocking pressure, contrasting sharply with the explosive growth seen during the DeFi boom in 2020-2021, as investors are gradually shifting crypto assets to Bitcoin.
Bitfinex analysts also noted that there is a cooling situation in the altcoin market, as the speculative interest that once supported altcoins seems to have disappeared. This is reflected in stable funding rates and overall low market sentiment. As Bitcoin absorbs most of the funds flowing into the crypto asset field, altcoins will have minimal prospects for recovery in the short term without new catalysts.
However, there are also views that funds will turn to the altcoin market.
HashKey Group chief analyst Jeffrey Ding analyzed that Trump's election has been seen as the 'starting gun' for the cryptocurrency market, and it is expected that until Trump takes office, the digital currency market will continue to digest this favorable news. The series of policies supporting cryptocurrencies that Trump promised during his campaign, including incorporating Bitcoin into the national reserve and replacing the current SEC chairman Gary Gensler, are viewed as significant positives for the market. Given that Trump is known for fulfilling his campaign promises, we have reason to expect these policies to be gradually implemented after he takes office. The expectation of these policies' implementation, combined with the high probability of Trump's election, provides strong support for the price increases of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom, stated on the Unchained podcast on November 1 that while liquidity will flow into Bitcoin after the election, if Bitcoin rises, then other coins will see a greater percentage increase. This is because people often have a 'nominal price fallacy', for example, if Bitcoin is $72,000, they think buying a coin worth $1 is cheaper and has more room to rise. This mindset leads investors to buy those coins that appear cheaper, creating the so-called 'rotation effect'.
GSR analysts stated that the election will not overly impact Bitcoin, but from the perspective of altcoins, many project teams have been waiting for the opportunity, observing the issuance situations of other tokens and the election results. When project teams are unsure whether the tokens they are about to deploy will be sued by the U.S. SEC within two months, not many project teams are willing to issue tokens now. If the election results favor improvements in crypto regulation, it will improve this situation.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan pointed out before the election that regardless of whether Trump or Harris wins, the regulatory environment for Bitcoin is improving. If Trump wins, it will have a greater impact on Ethereum and other altcoins. Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, also stated on November 4 that the altcoin liquidation should end by December 2024 (at the latest in the second week of January 2025).
Review of Oversold Altcoins
Looking at the performance of altcoins over the past two days, the market leans towards a more positive viewpoint. However, although some altcoins have experienced rebounds, combining the long-term market trends of altcoins and Bitcoin's current market trends, many altcoins are still in the 'ankle cutting' phase. Among the projects newly launched on Binance in 2024, many altcoins have experienced pullbacks of over 80% from their highs, so from a trading perspective, if the altcoin market arrives, these oversold altcoins will have greater opportunities for rebounds.
Here is a brief overview of some altcoins newly launched on Binance in 2024 but with significant high point pullbacks: (Data as of November 7)
Starknet (STRK)
Sector: L2
Launch Date: 2024-2-20
High Point Pullback: -85%
Sleepless AI (AI)
Sector: GAMEFI, AI
Launch Date: 2024-1-8
High Point Pullback: -84%
AltLayer (ALT)
Sector: Modular Blockchain
Launch Date: 2024-1-25
High Point Pullback: -85%
Pyth Network (PYTH)
Sector: Oracles, SOL Ecosystem
Launch Date: 2024-2-2
High Point Pullback: -67%
IO.NET (IO)
Sector: AI
Launch Date: 2024-6-11
High Point Pullback: -72%
Dogwifhat (WIF)
Sector: SOL MEME
Launch Date: 2024-3-5
High Point Pullback: -52%
AEVO (AEVO)
Sector: DEX
Launch Date: 2024-3-13
High Point Pullback: -91%
Ethena (ENA)
Sector: Synthetic Stablecoins
Launch Date: 2024-4-2
High Point Pullback: -65%
Dogs (DOGS)
Sector: TON, MEME
Launch Date: 2024-8-30
High Point Pullback: -65%
Hamster Kombat (HMSTR)
Sector: TON, GameFi
Launch Date: 2024-9-26
High Point Pullback: -63%
The above examples only select a few oversold altcoins. The altcoin market has experienced a long-term decline while Bitcoin has risen, and in the short term, there are many opportunities in the altcoin market. However, not all players have the time to carefully analyze the altcoin market and find money-making opportunities when the altcoin season arrives. Therefore, Odaily Planet Daily has recently developed a short-term coin selection robot - Golden Ape to help users solve this problem.
This robot uses real-time monitoring and continuous backtesting of long-term trading data for altcoins, combined with Bitcoin's market trend analysis, and after months of refining the algorithm, it can help users find potential short-term targets for price increases, improving trading success rates. Currently, the Golden Ape Test version is entering the public testing phase, and users can now join the TG community for free to experience this intelligent coin selection tool, with the first batch of experience slots limited to 500.
Interested friends should quickly join Odaily's Golden Ape TG community to explore the market together and discover and lock in valuable targets.
Screenshot of Golden Ape TG community
