As someone who has experienced three bull and bear cycles and is about to cross the fourth, I researched the market yesterday and compared the timelines of the last bull and bear markets. I couldn't help but say a few words, hoping it would be helpful to my DAO members.
First, I want to emphasize that the bull market has always been a long cycle of 3 years, not what some new investors say, that today it rises, so it's a bull market, and tomorrow it falls, so it's a bear market. You may find the concept of 3 years puzzling, but if you look at the complete 4-year bull and bear cycle, you will find that what I said is indeed true.
In the last bull market, I actually reviewed the 2017 bull market and even wrote an article titled 'Short Bull and Long Bear is a Paradox.' The truth is that bears are short and bulls are long because if you consider each bull market's peak as a complete cycle, this period is about 4 years. From the lowest point to the highest point, the so-called bull market rise takes about 3 years, while the time coming down from the peak is often only about a year.
So, in fact, the progress of the bull market is much slower and longer than we imagine. This is actually in line with the laws of nature; climbing from the foot of the mountain is a slow upward process, but coming down from the mountain is very fast. However, there is a saying that going up the mountain is easy but coming down is hard; this is not contradictory. Just ask, is the bear market hard to endure? We have an old saying that the night is long and dreams are many, which means that many unexpected changes can arise, affecting the development or outcome of events. This is why it is often said that the bull market is the beginning of losses for many partners, because the bull market is so long that you don’t even realize you are in one. Just as we live in a happy life bought with the lives of our predecessors, many of us are still complaining about our fate. This is the norm of the world, and I hope some can live with a bit of clarity.
Okay, if you acknowledge the timing and classification of bull and bear markets and agree that bears are short and bulls are long, then where are we in this bull market? Where do we go from here? I think this is the topic that everyone is more concerned about. Some new investors might even eagerly ask, just tell me what to buy! Without further ado, let's go straight to the chart; it's clear and straightforward!
Does anyone feel a sense of urgency? The bull market is almost over, yet we seem not to feel it at all. But I believe that in the next 3-6 months, you will truly feel that the bull market has indeed arrived. Of course, this is also the reason the market allows you to feel it because this golden cycle may be the so-called time for the main force to offload and cash out. As for whether it will form a double top like the last bull market or sing all the way high with a pullback and then a new peak, it's hard to say. Personally, I lean towards the latter trend. A double top is more deceptive, but it also indicates that the market is unclear or lacks sufficient funds. We are currently in a dollar interest rate reduction cycle, and large capital has already entered the market. The overall environment cannot be compared with the last bull market, so I am more inclined to believe that this bull market will take on a different form and may greatly exceed everyone's expectations.
However, there is a sad reality: despite the bull market lasting for 2 years, over 90% of the people around me are not profiting, except for a few who hoard coins. Most people's positions are mostly small coins other than BTC or heavily invested in ETH. So even though we have recognized the truth of the bull market, it seems to have nothing to do with us, and I must say that this is truly a distressing situation.
But the truth is that most old altcoins are still in a bear market cycle. Yes, you heard it right; the bull and bear cycles of altcoins do not coincide with the market. Their time lag may be 6-12 months, but if they want to catch up, they can only surge. If you are currently heavily invested in new coins like neiro, sol, and sui, congratulations, you might be enjoying the joy of the bull market. However, I think most people have probably exited or re-entered at a high point.
In fact, every bull market starts with the frenzy of new investors. We have to see who can hold back their laughter until the end to determine who the real winner of this bull and bear market is. Although there is not much time left for everyone, there is still an opportunity. However, the opinion I am about to express may offend some people, but investment is always a personal decision. Just treat this as an uncle bragging and don't take it too seriously.
First, let's look at the positions of a few altcoins I hold now:
EOS
DYDX
CKB
You may have noticed that while both are old altcoins, CKB's trend has changed. This is because CKB has integrated into BTC's ecosystem. However, overall, the bear market for old altcoins has yet to show any hope; in fact, it may already be at the bottom. So if you are still in cash or feel there is no opportunity, I think this is a chance. If you are unfortunately holding mostly old altcoins, I suggest you have another 3-6 months of patience; you will welcome their shining moments! Here, I just want to emphasize one point: the startup of altcoin markets will be very rapid, so when they drop, it will also be very fast. Do not be greedy; I expect that the best time to exit will be after the Spring Festival. Many partners will definitely find it hard to sell coins that have already risen by 10-20%; at this time, you can consider temporarily swapping them for BTC, perhaps you can still catch some market movement, but I still recommend securing profits. If you swap for BTC, you won't feel like you've sold; it's just swapping for a more stable holding. Of course, if you don't have absolute confidence in Bitcoin, my advice might sound redundant, but those who believe in Bitcoin will understand my good intentions.
Finally, let's talk about the ETH ecosystem.
ETH
ARB
Everyone knows that ETH's current bull market is weak, and it's unusually weak. There are rumors online that ETH is holding back a big move and changing hands. Regardless of the truth behind these rumors, you just need to know that it remains the second in this circle. If big money enters this circle, besides investing in BTC, this is the only choice. So if we say that the second phase of the bull market is about to start, which is also the craziest phase, then the current garbage or weakness may turn into more profits. Although ARB, which is also a layer two solution, seems to be quite inferior compared to SUI, perhaps its fate is about to reverse. If you don't have SUI and haven't benefited from it, maybe ARB is your opportunity right now.
That's about it. My mom is calling me for dinner, so let's wrap this up! If there are many comments you want to discuss, I can consider writing another one tomorrow. If you think what I said is meaningless, I'll keep quiet from here on out!
