After all the good news is out, will it be a big bear market?

At 3 a.m. Beijing time on Friday, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. The market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut, but the key lies in what kind of policy guidance the Federal Reserve gives. At 3:30 a.m., Powell will hold a press conference. He may try to show an apolitical attitude, but investors will be highly vigilant about relevant guidance given the stakes of the election and the possibility that Trump's policies may change the economic and inflation outlook.

Trump's victory has triggered a frenzy of repricing in global financial markets, and the market has increased its bets on the "Trump deal" - faster economic growth and higher inflation. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields rose by nearly 20 basis points, while U.S. stocks hit record highs and the dollar rose.

Trump has previously said that he would impose comprehensive tariffs on U.S. imports and cut taxes in everything from corporate profits to overtime pay, policies that are widely seen as inflationary. He also considered replacing the leadership of the Federal Reserve and claimed that he had the right to comment on interest rates. During his first term, the Fed raised rates in 2017 and 2018, and Trump asked Powell to lower rates, breaking the White House's practice of avoiding commenting on monetary policy.

With Trump's policy mix in the works, Powell needs to reassure global investors that the Fed can cope with the impact of Trump's second term. With the Republicans likely to sweep Congress, market expectations for the path of monetary policy have changed. #特朗普加密政策承诺 #美联储利率决议来袭 #山寨季将至？ #美国大选后涨或跌？