Written by Cora Xu
Editor: Evan Zhou
Few people in Silicon Valley would dare to risk their reputation and resources to support a presidential candidate as much as Elon Musk.
Fortunately, in the 47th presidential election of the United States, the Minister of Bodyguard successfully sent Donald Trump to the presidency. Trump also "rewarded" Musk on election night, unabashedly praising and thanking Musk, and reserved a five-minute "exclusive advertising space" for SpaceX.
Now that the US election is set, why is Musk, the number one contributor, so eager to push Trump to power? What benefits will he gain from this election battle? Will Trump's inauguration really give Musk a "get out of jail free card"?
After the uproar, we may be able to look more calmly at how this Silicon Valley superstar carefully planned, invested fully, and cautiously concluded the most crazy election investment. This election also allows us to once again see Musk's sensitive investment sense and accurate judgment ability in many fields such as politics, economy, and society.
Musk used a political all-in to exchange for a 12-year golden period of development for his business empire.
Musk supports Trump in Pennsylvania. (Photo source: Associated Press)
01 Musk, who is caught in a dilemma, urgently needs a new president
In the latest Forbes Global Billionaires List 2024, Musk ranks second in the world and first in the United States with a wealth of US$195 billion.
The wealth of the richest man in the United States is mainly composed of two parts: company shares + cash and other assets. Among them, the valuation of company shares is the most important component of Musk's wealth, which currently includes autonomous driving company Tesla, commercial space company SpaceX, social media X, brain-computer interface company Neuralink, tunnel company The Boring Company, etc.
It seems that Musk should be able to rest easy as he owns many leading companies in various sectors. But in fact, after carefully reviewing the latest situation of major companies in the past year, it is not difficult to find that many of Musk's companies have fallen into development bottlenecks, with slow growth in core businesses and suspension or postponement of innovative businesses. And the key to solving some of the company's problems cannot be circumvented by the US government.
1. Tesla's self-driving car: Safety supervision may be relaxed, and the commercialization process of Robotaxi will be accelerated
First of all, Tesla is the most critical. As the former big brother of autonomous driving, Tesla has been investigated by the U.S. Department of Justice and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration for its autonomous driving and fully autonomous driving functions, involving 11 accidents and 765,000 vehicles.
At the same time, Tesla is also caught up in disputes such as the union struggle initiated by the National Labor Relations Board and racial discrimination initiated by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. It can be seen that Tesla has always received high attention from the US government, which regulates its development in many aspects.
In addition, the Biden administration rarely supported Tesla. Tesla was not included in the list of companies that are difficult to support under the US new energy subsidy policy, nor was it invited to the US Electric Vehicle Summit held by the White House. This shows the poor relationship between Musk and the US government.
On the other hand, whether it is Tesla's autonomous driving business or its newly released Robotaxi, further expansion cannot be separated from the support of the US government.
Source: The New York Times
2. Commercial airline SpaceX: Trump supports the Mars immigration plan, and Starlink business expansion is accelerating
Commercial airline SpaceX has also encountered the problem of strict government regulation. The U.S. Department of Justice is suing SpaceX, accusing it of discriminating against refugees in the recruitment process; a regional office of the National Labor Relations Board has complained that it illegally fired eight employees; the Federal Aviation Administration is imposing a civil fine of $633,009 on SpaceX; the Federal Communications Commission voted against including SpaceX's Starlink in the rural broadband plan and providing financial support...
"They took every possible contract they could get," Musk once angrily said in an interview.
It can be seen that SpaceX's current business growth is inseparable from the US government's relaxation of regulations, especially the Starlink multi-state pilot to expand its service scope.
In terms of space exploration, Musk has always had a "Mars dream", which requires closer cooperation with the US government. He once said in an interview that his dream of emigrating to Mars can only be realized under Trump's administration. Trump also responded positively: "I hope he can send a rocket to Mars. He promised to land on Mars before the end of my term."
3. Social Media X: Transferring Content Supervision Rights to Enterprises and Reaffirming the Importance of Free Speech
During the Biden administration, the main points of contention between the U.S. government and Musk's social media platform X are about the right to freedom of speech and how the government regulates platform content and its influence on decision-making. Biden also hopes to promote reforms to Section 230 of the U.S. to curb illegal speech.
But it is obvious that Trump is more of an advocate of freedom of speech. Whether it is his founding of the social media platform Truth, or his speeches and policy advocacy during the election, it can be seen that he is more willing to cede the right to regulate platform content to companies rather than the government regulating platform content.
4. Neuralink: FDA approval is accelerated and new products are launched faster
As an innovative invasive brain-computer interface project, the US government has always maintained a strict and all-round review of Neuralink.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has launched an investigation into Neuralink's animal experiments to determine whether the relevant practices meet the minimum standards set by the (Animal Welfare Act); the U.S. Department of Transportation has also launched an investigation into Neuralink at the request of an animal welfare advocacy organization because the company's experimental materials were transported in a "careless and unsafe manner" that may involve the risk of spreading dangerous pathogens; the American animal protection organization PCRM has filed a lawsuit against Neuralink, accusing it of "abusing" monkeys...
In addition, Neuralink also sought FDA permission for human trials in early 2022, but was rejected and was not approved until more than a year later. Neuralink also finally launched its first product, Telepathy, and completed the first human brain device implant surgery in January 2024.
5. The Boring Company: Hyperloop construction restarts to create an underground highway transportation system
It may be hard for you to imagine that as one of Musk's "most boring companies", The Boring Company has only operated 2.4 miles of tunnels in 7 years. All this is far from Musk's original idea of building a huge multi-station underground highway transportation system so that driverless cars can take people to their destinations at a speed of 150 miles per hour. It can be said that The Boring Company complements Musk's Robotaxi plan and prepares for its infrastructure.
Today, Robotaxi is nearly ready, but road construction is moving slowly. The Boring Company’s Baltimore-Maryland Loop Tunnel project has been met with numerous complaints and protests; the company’s projects in California, Illinois, Texas, Florida, and Maryland have all come to nothing...
Therefore, compared with Musk's other companies, the business progress of The Boring Company is more dependent on the support of the US government.
According to an investigation by foreign media NBC, Musk and his vast business empire have been involved in at least 19 regulatory or legal disputes with the Biden administration in recent years, 10 of which are still ongoing. Many projects have progressed more slowly since 2022 under the close supervision of the Biden administration.
Tesla executives once called on their bosses to return to work on X, implying that Musk was not investing enough energy in business operations. Now thinking about it, perhaps Musk sorted out all the problems of his companies and chose to start solving their biggest common problem - the US government.
02 ALL in the election, Musk's "all-in" strategy
It’s hard to say when Musk started planning his investment for this election, but the earliest sign was when he acquired Twitter for $44 billion.
After all, the first thing Musk did after taking office was to unblock Trump’s account. Many netizens analyzed that from here, Musk had laid the first step in investing in the election.
It has to be said that in today's American society, social platform X (formerly Twitter) is still the main battlefield of the general election. Musk's invitation to Trump to live broadcast on platform X also has a bit of a welcoming color.
But the moment when Musk truly stood at the center of election politics and decided to go all in was undoubtedly July 2024, after the shooting of Trump, when Musk publicly expressed his support for Trump as the next president.
If this is the only step, it still cannot show Musk's determination. After all, there are many Silicon Valley people who publicly support a presidential candidate. Musk's boldest step was to walk onto the podium of Trump's rally.
According to incomplete statistics, Musk has participated in at least three Trump rallies, publicly touting the benefits of Trump's presidency many times, and even shouting the slogan "Trump, Trump, Trump, Vote, Vote, Vote". In Pennsylvania, a key swing state in the United States, Musk and Trump appeared at a rally together, emphasizing the importance of Trump as the only candidate who can "preserve American democracy". Musk also held an independent event in the suburbs of Philadelphia to support Trump.
Image source: Foreign Policy
At this point, Musk has tied his fate firmly to Trump. Even he himself said with a smile: "If Harris comes to power, I'm done. Do you think I can still see my children?"
In fact, in addition to Musk's open support for Trump, Musk also used his personal resources to the fullest and started this craziest investment.
The first is to spend money to promote Trump. Musk not only set up a political action committee, America PAC, to support Trump, but also donated at least $132 million to Trump's campaign team. Among them, Musk even provided $56 million to Trump and other Republicans.
Not to mention, Musk invested $15 million to "throw money" at voters in swing states. As long as you vote for Trump, you will get a bonus, $1 million a day, for half a month. Although this $15 million may not be much for Musk, and it is not too much for election investment, but his magical operation made almost everyone in the United States know Musk's strong support for Trump.
Image source: WDSU
The second is resource recommendation. For example, Musk and his close friend and senior investor Nelson Peltz once expressed their "loyalty" to Trump. They will convene influential business leaders across the United States with their political allies to try to persuade them not to support the current President Biden. The effect is indeed remarkable. PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel and venture capitalist David Sacks are friends of Musk and publicly expressed support for Trump during the campaign. Biden eventually withdrew from the presidential election and pushed Harris to run.
While winning support in the key swing state of Pennsylvania, Musk frequently held town hall meetings there, personally promoted his key role in the election, and updated early voting data and posted election posts on social media platform X.
He also deployed his think tank to help Trump's campaign in Pennsylvania, trying to use his rhetoric to encourage voters to support Trump. This also helped Trump win the most critical 19 electoral votes in the presidential election.
If we view this election as Musk's investment project in Trump, then Musk may become a more ideal investor in many people's minds: supplying large amounts of funds, devoting all resources to support, using his own influence to create momentum, and providing think tanks to solve key problems, while not interfering with the Republican Party's policy proposals.
If we look closely at Musk, he is trapped in many business problems, but he bravely gambles his entire fortune and chooses to stand with Trump.
In addition, it is also worth noting that although Musk seems to be all in on this investment, it does not really leave him no way out.
His biggest retreat is Harris. It can be seen that Harris has always adopted a more tolerant and listening attitude towards innovative technologies and innovative enterprises. In most cases, Harris is willing to balance regulation and innovation regulation. Therefore, even if Harris takes office, Musk should not be subject to stricter government regulation than during the Biden era.
Musk personally demonstrated how to win in the craziest investment in Silicon Valley by entering the game in a high-profile manner, accurately grasping the social and political trends, weighing people's hearts and minds, and pursuing success.
03 Withdrawing, Musk wins the bet for the next 12 years
Silicon Valley giants, like start-ups, are also waiting for the shoe to drop.
The returns from this election investment may be higher than Musk expected.
First of all, Trump defeated Harris in a crushing victory, with a clear advantage in both the electoral votes and the popular vote, and ultimately won 277:226.
Secondly, the Republican Party won a majority of seats in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, which means that Trump also has a greater influence on legislation, achieving the unity of executive and legislative branches.
Finally, the current Supreme Court justices are lifelong appointees, and most of them are conservatives promoted by Trump during his tenure, almost his own people.
Therefore, during Trump's second term as president, he can be said to hold all three powers, with great influence and decision-making power.
Many people optimistically predict that as long as Trump moves forward steadily, is re-elected for two terms, and then supports the next generation of Republican candidates to take office, the Republican Party will have considerable power in the next 12 years.
All of this, for Musk, may leave a 12-year golden development period for his business empire. It coincides with the booming development of major innovative technologies, and the situation is very positive.
The more money you make, the more cautious you act. This is especially true of Musk after Trump announced his victory. As of press time, Musk has only congratulated Trump on his victory on his own platform and has not said anything more. Compared to his boasting before the election, Musk has now hidden his achievements and fame and has withdrawn.
But is Musk really free of conflict with Trump's new policies? Obviously not.
The first question is still about regulation. If Musk becomes the first head of the National Efficiency Commission and cuts other corporate expenses as Trump promised, how will Musk regulate himself and other industries? This is obviously not an easy question to answer. Musk did not even avoid potential conflicts of interest, but publicly expressed the hope that Trump would directly help his business by reducing regulation.
On the other hand, there is a conflict of interest between Musk's overseas business investments and Trump's tariff policy, which is also one of the hidden dangers to the development of his business.
Trump obviously will not let Musk do whatever he wants. Even before the election, he had said that Musk would be his "minister of cost cutting" but "would not enter the cabinet." Musk had anticipated this in an interview, saying, "The White House will adopt different policies based on different people."
Now, the political struggle between Harris and Trump has ended, but the game between Musk and Trump has just begun.