Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections earned a Polymarket bettor an estimated $78.7 million in profits, according to Chainalysis. The blockchain analytics platform noted that the French man known as Theo made handsome profits on his $38 million positions on a Trump victory.
According to Chainalysis, Theo had more than the four accounts initially attributed to him on the blockchain-based predictions platform. The French man reportedly controlled nine accounts, betting significantly on Trump through all of them.
Chainalysis noted:
“Using Chainalysis Reactor, we uncovered a total of 9 Polymarket accounts that appear to be controlled by a single entity based on their funding patterns, timing of transactions, and cash out to specific exchange deposit addresses.”
Theo’s Trump bets on Polymarket. Source: Chainalysis
With this new update, Theo becomes one of the biggest winners ever in political betting. However, as some bettors won because they supported Trump, some lost significant money for backing Harris. One bettor lost $5 million betting on Harris to win the election, marking likely the biggest loss on Polymarket.
Polymarket was the biggest winner
Trump’s victory is also a major win for Polymarket. The blockchain-based prediction market has been one of the revelations of this election cycle, making headlines after its odds showed that Trump would win. While Trump and his supporters, including Elon Musk and crypto users, shared these polls as proof that he would win, many questioned the platform’s accuracy.
Most mainstream polls expected a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, but Polymarket odds shifted heavily in favor of Trump winning in October. The former president built an almost 32% gap over Kamala Harris as of October 25. However, predictions experts questioned the utility of Polymarket, noting that large bets by some whales, such as Theo, were influencing odds on the platform.
It turns out that Polymarket’s odds were quite right because Trump won the election by a landslide, clearing both the popular votes and the electoral college. Trump’s victory extended to the Republican party, with the GOP sweeping Congress and gaining control of the Senate and House of Representatives.
Meanwhile, Polymarket did not just predict the race’s outcome; the platform also called the elections in the US swing states ahead of mainstream prediction platforms. According to Polymarket, the winning candidate’s odds of winning reached 95% on Polymarket hours ahead of when the Associated Press called the presidential races in all the swing states. Polymarket odds reached 95% for the overall winner at 11:43 P.M. on Tuesday, while AP did not call until 8:43 A.M. on Wednesday.
What’s next for Polymarket?
Now that the US presidential elections are over, Polymarket has no doubt established a viable alternative to mainstream prediction platforms and polls. The platform’s US presidential elections markets pulled in $3.64 billion in volume, making it the biggest and dwarfing the combined volume of other markets such as Robinhood, Interactive Brokers, and Kalshi.
However, the platform must now worry about sustaining activity and trading volume after the election. Although there are now markets related to the elections, such as whether Harris will attend the inauguration or if Trump will include Musk in his cabinet, these are unlikely to attract sufficient volume compared to the presidential election.
There are reports that the platform is considering pivoting into sports betting, which could allow it to retain users long-term instead of periodic events. Still, it could face some regulatory headwinds in the coming months. Recent reports show that the France National Gaming Authority (ANJ) is considering banning the platform and reviewing its compliance with local laws.