BlockBeats news, on November 7, TD Securities stated that after Trump's victory, the latest market reaction indicates that the market expects a combination of tax cuts and tariffs, pushing up the Federal Reserve's neutral rate.
We are changing our forecast for the Federal Reserve, as rising inflation will slow the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025. We now expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in November, December, and January, and then pause rate cuts in March. The Federal Reserve will continue with a 'cut—pause—cut' pace in 2025, lowering rates to 3.5% by the end of 2025, which is higher than the previous expectation of 3.0%.
In the first half of 2026, the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates to 3.0%, which means we do not see any changes in the neutral rate; it is just that the Federal Reserve will arrive there later. (Jin Shi)