Throughout this year's entire election market, besides Pump.Fun, the most prominent application in the crypto space has been the prediction market Polymarket. Thanks to Polymarket's excellent operations during the election and the promotional efforts by Trump and some KOLs, 'Who can you bet on to be the next president on Polymarket?' quickly spread. The trading volume related to the presidency surged as election night approached, and by noon on November 6, too many people flooded into the Polymarket website, causing a brief server crash.
Throughout the election cycle, the odds changes on Polymarket have maintained a high sensitivity to news compared to predictions from traditional polling organizations. Money always leads over news; even before the outcomes in swing states were decided, Trump's winning probability on Polymarket had already begun to rise.
The cumulative trading volume for election prediction trades on Polymarket has reached $3,612,184,597, with trades related to Republican candidate Trump approaching $1.48 billion, while Democratic candidate Harris has a trading volume of $1.01 billion.
Leading traditional polls, gaining popularity
On November 6, Polymarket's data showed that Trump's winning probability experienced significant fluctuations. At 1 AM, Trump's winning rate was 59.4%, previously rising to 63% at one point earlier. By 9:46 AM, Trump's winning probability rose to 71.1%, while Harris's winning probability dropped to 29.1%. By 11:17 AM, Trump's winning probability further climbed to 88.6%. Subsequently, Trump led in key swing states, and the odds on Polymarket changed rapidly, with everyone using money to speak.
According to Protos data, Polymarket and Kalshi have been compared side by side with election odds from The New York Times (NYT) and Nate Silver, and the differences are evident. For example, on October 31, Trump's chances of winning in the U.S. election on Polymarket were 66%, but only 48% on The Hill.
Looking at a broader sample, the averages from traditional polling organizations like Nate Silver, NYT, or FiveThirtyEight show that the odds between Trump and Harris have only been a few basis points apart over the past period. Clearly, based on results, Polymarket's outcome, driven by trading activity, is more convincing compared to traditional polling organizations.
On November 6, according to data from application analytics platform SensorTower, the regulated prediction market platform Kalshi currently ranks first in the Apple finance app category and also ranks first among free apps. Meanwhile, Polymarket has also risen to second place in the free app rankings, marking the highest ranking for both applications to date.
Who profited, who lost
Crypto prediction markets have long been seen as highly cyclical products with only specific application scenarios, such as political elections and sports events. As the U.S. election cycle nears its end, Polymarket's future development will be the focus of many, but currently, the most noteworthy is this $3.6 billion election trade. Under heavy betting, French trader Théo wagered $45 million on Trump, ultimately becoming the highest-earning user on Polymarket.
In August, Théo sent dozens of emails to reporters at The Wall Street Journal, criticizing what he saw as biased mainstream media polls favoring Harris. In a Zoom call, he claimed that media supported by the Democrats were paving the way for social unrest by hyping intense competition in the campaign, while he anticipated an overwhelming victory for Trump. Théo stated he was surprised by the external attention on his trades; he began to place low-profile bets in August, purchasing millions of dollars in Trump victory contracts under the username Fredi9999. At that time, the odds for Trump and Harris on Polymarket were basically even.
To avoid drastic price fluctuations, Théo spread his bets over several days. Nevertheless, as the betting amount increased, Théo noticed that other traders would avoid quoting when Fredi9999 was purchasing, making it difficult for him to bet at ideal prices. Thus, he created three additional accounts in September and October to conceal his buying behavior.
If Trump wins and achieves the landslide victory he expects, Théo could earn over $80 million, doubling his return. His main bet is on Trump winning the electoral votes, with additional millions wagered on Trump winning the popular vote—a scenario many observers consider unlikely. Additionally, he has placed bets on Trump winning in swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Related reading: (A $30 million gamble on Trump's victory, this mysterious whale claims: just to make money)
Today, the election results have finally been revealed, with Théo's account Fredi9999 achieving a total profit of $16.47 million.
Taking the four betting options under the most traded topic 'Who will win the presidential election' on Polymarket as an example, BlockBeats has listed the users with the largest profits and losses below.
Trump
The diagram below shows the distribution of user bets on whether Trump will be elected president on Polymarket. The 'Supporters' on the left are users who believe Trump will be elected, with the largest holder 'zxgngl' holding 29,473,073 shares, currently achieving a total profit of $11.315 million. Other main supporters include the previously mentioned 'Fredi9999' and 'walletmobile'.
On the right, the 'Opponents' are users who believe Trump will not be elected, with the largest holder 'I95153360' holding 7,107,980 shares, currently facing a loss of $1.192 million.
Harris
The diagram below shows the distribution of user bets on whether Harris will be elected president on Polymarket. The 'Supporters' on the left are those who believe Harris will be elected, with the largest holder 'leier' holding 10,871,056 shares, currently facing a total loss of $4.99 million. Other main supporters include 'StarVoting' and 'Ly67890'.
On the right, the 'Opponents' are users who believe Harris will not be elected, with the largest holder being 'COMMA-luh', holding 4,878,533 shares. Additionally, this user has also bet on 'Trump will be elected president', with total profits exceeding $210,000.
