Author: flowie, ChainCatcher
Editor: Nianqing, ChainCatcher
Trump is elected! The first cryptocurrency president in the White House is born!
On November 6, Beijing time, the most dramatic presidential election in American history finally came to an end. According to real-time election data from Fox News, Trump defeated Harris, who received 62,142,405 votes, by 67,121,735 votes, and successfully won 277 electoral votes, exceeding the 270-vote threshold to win the 2024 US presidential election.
Trump's continued lead and successful election have helped BTC break through $75,000 to set a new all-time high, and all crypto sectors have entered a period of general growth.
The 2024 U.S. elections are destined to leave a significant mark in crypto history. Since the birth of Bitcoin, crypto has undergone 16 years and three election cycles, finally entering the U.S. election campaign stage in a meaningful way.
The promotion of 'crypto' by politicians like Trump is backed by the increasing strength of Bitcoin and other crypto assets and the accumulation of forces like crypto voters.
Whether Trump's crypto promises arrive as scheduled after taking office, the gears of crypto's fate may have already begun to turn.
Trump's crypto commitments.
Compared to Harris's unclear stance on crypto, Trump's ongoing crypto commitments have made him the most anticipated presidential candidate by the crypto community.
The crypto community has bet billions of real dollars on Polymarket for Trump's election. Trump's multiple statements regarding cryptocurrency have propelled significant increases and volatility in BTC.
Looking back at the campaign period, Trump's promised crypto policies mainly include the following aspects:
Trump has repeatedly emphasized the status of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin. He has vowed to create a global cryptocurrency capital. He adheres to the 'America First' principle, believing that the crypto industry is in its infancy and could potentially surpass gold in the future. He has promised to make the U.S. the global capital of cryptocurrency and a superpower in Bitcoin.
At the same time, Trump stated during the 2024 Bitcoin conference that if he could return to the White House, he would classify Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for the U.S. and would never sell Bitcoin seized by the government.
Regarding the potential $35 trillion national debt issue that could trigger long-term economic challenges in the U.S., Trump has also suggested that it might be resolved through cryptocurrency.
Regarding Bitcoin mining and energy policies, Trump desires 'all remaining Bitcoins to be produced in the U.S.', ensuring that Bitcoin is mined, minted, and manufactured in the U.S., thereby making the U.S. the undisputed leader in Bitcoin mining, claiming that this will help the U.S. become an 'energy leader'.
Trump plans to build a large number of power generation facilities to support Bitcoin mining and other technological developments. He emphasized using eco-friendly methods such as fossil fuels and nuclear energy to generate electricity to meet the energy demands of Bitcoin mining and other high-energy-consuming industries.
On crypto regulation and policy, Trump has also mentioned several targeted proposals.
Under the oppressive regulation of the SEC led by Democrats, the contradictions between crypto companies, community users, and U.S. crypto regulation are also intensifying.
Trump's series of regulatory proposals undoubtedly gained favor with crypto voters.
Trump stated that on his first day in office, he would fire the current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler. Trump also opposes CBDCs, stating that he would not launch central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) during his presidency.
In response to the crypto community's repeated complaints about unclear and opaque crypto regulatory policies, Trump stated that corresponding regulations would be in place within his first 100 days in office.
He will develop comprehensive crypto policies, from stablecoin regulation to Bitcoin self-custody rights. He also stated he would end the Biden-Harris administration's suppression of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, establish a presidential advisory committee on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, design transparent regulatory guidelines, and promote the development of the entire industry.
Additionally, Trump also promised to reduce the prison sentence of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht to time served.
Trump's crypto commitment to 'light regulation and heavy innovation' has injected significant confidence into the crypto community, as the community generally believes they will gain a more lenient regulatory environment.
Among many commitments, anonymous crypto market analyst and trader Crypto Rand believes that ensuring a solid regulatory framework for cryptocurrency and making it legal is one of Trump's most important promises. He believes that Congress and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission have repeatedly indicated a lack of understanding of the crypto industry and its development.
Additionally, Trump promised to grant self-custody rights to cryptocurrency users, effectively codifying 'not your keys, not your coins' into U.S. federal law.
Many politicians and crypto companies also believe that Trump's election will hasten the end of Gary Gensler's term, who is labeled as the 'crypto exterminator'. U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis from Wyoming stated that SEC Chairman Gary Gensler may resign from his regulatory role next year.
Regarding the vision for establishing a Bitcoin strategy, asset manager Bryan Courchesne believes it is challenging but not impossible. He stated that the Department of Justice could transfer approximately 200,000 seized Bitcoins to the Treasury as reserve assets and continue to accumulate digital currency to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve, although this process may face cumbersome administrative procedures.
However, many crypto individuals, including former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, believe that Trump's crypto promises are merely a vote-gathering strategy and do not hold much hope for actual fulfillment. Arthur Hayes suggests that these crypto declarations could become empty promises before any relevant legislation is officially enacted.
Especially in Trump's political career, he has repeatedly gone back on his promises. For example, promises regarding healthcare plans and border walls have not been fulfilled.
Trump's crypto promises also face challenges in fulfillment.
Regarding Bitcoin reserve strategies, Ric Edelam, founder of the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals, believes that theoretically, cryptocurrency can help resolve the long-standing national debt issue in the U.S., and Bitcoin reserves could significantly reduce or even eliminate the national debt.
However, the reality may be that Trump may not be able to successfully establish a reserve fund. Or even if he succeeds, his successor may cancel it. Ric Edelam believes that Trump's idea of 'solving the U.S. national debt issue with cryptocurrency' should be seen as an interesting statement during his campaign, nothing more.
The vision of making the U.S. a Bitcoin mining powerhouse has also been criticized as overly idealistic.
Currently, the Bitcoin supply cap is 21 million, with 90% already mined. Ben Gagnon, CEO of the crypto mining company Bitfarms, stated that if Trump reduces regulations and increases support and investment in energy and power infrastructure, the U.S. will solidify its position as the most competitive place for Bitcoin mining globally, making it absolutely possible and desirable for the U.S. to become the leading country in Bitcoin mining.
However, due to the decentralized infrastructure of Bitcoin, it is impossible for remaining Bitcoin mining to occur in one country, making it impossible for 100% of Bitcoin to be mined in the U.S. or any other single country, fundamentally contradicting the core principles of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto.
Additionally, quickly firing Gary Gensler upon taking office is not as easy as Trump claims. The dismissal process may involve multiple steps and legal procedures, requiring reasonable justification for the dismissal, which could undergo a series of legal reviews and administrative transitions. Trump may still face a situation of co-governing with Gary Gensler.
Predictions on the future trend of the crypto market.
Although Trump's crypto commitments await the test of time, the market is generally optimistic about the crypto market after Trump's inauguration.
Multiple analysts believe BTC will continue to set historical highs, even achieving the first breakthrough of $100,000 by the end of the year.
Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick stated that BTC will rise another 10% in the coming days and will reach $125,000 by the end of the year.
Analysts at Bernstein have stated that the price of Bitcoin could reach $80,000 to $90,000. Jeff Park, the head of Alpha Strategy at the crypto asset management firm Bitwise, predicts that the price of Bitcoin could rise to $92,000.
Early Bitcoin investor Erik Finman stated that Trump's policies will ignite the crypto market, driving significant growth across the board. He believes Trump's victory could push Bitcoin prices up to $100,000.
By the end of 2025, Bernstein Research has indicated in a forecast report that the price of Bitcoin could reach as high as $200,000. PlanB, the creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, boldly predicts that BTC could reach $1 million.
In addition to BTC trends, Trump's presidency may have a significant influence on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, progress on cryptocurrency ETFs, meme coins, and other areas.
Trump has promised to significantly lower interest rates if elected, but David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, stated that if Trump is elected, the Federal Reserve may pause its easing cycle as early as December. This is because Trump's expansionary fiscal policy plans will drive up inflation and prevent interest rates from decreasing.
Kelly also pointed out that if the Republicans achieve a resounding victory with Trump's win, more expansionary fiscal policies may emerge, potentially triggering trade wars, increasing deficits, and leading to higher interest rates.
CRFB Chair Maya MacGuineas also believes that if Trump is elected, especially if Republicans control Congress, future interest rates could be higher than expected.
Regarding cryptocurrency ETFs, The ETF Store President Nate Geraci believes that if Trump is elected, it will accelerate the approval of staking Ethereum ETFs. Nate Geraci also stated that it is only a matter of time before net inflows for Ethereum ETFs recover.
Regarding the approval progress of cryptocurrency ETFs other than BTC and ETH, Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas stated that after Trump's election, whether BlackRock joins Bitwise, VanEck, and other companies hoping to extend cryptocurrency ETFs beyond BTC and ETH (like XRP and SOL), there will be 'considerable opportunities' for more cryptocurrency ETFs to emerge.
However, Trump's presidency may have a negative impact on meme coins. Nic Carter, co-founder of Castle Island Ventures, stated on his social platform that the hype around meme coins largely responds to the SEC's oppressive regulation. If the SEC conducts rational regulation, the market demand for trading meme coins will decrease.
Thus, if Trump is elected, the situation may change. Overseas crypto KOL @malekanoms predicts that Trump's victory will have a negative impact on Meme.
@malekanoms believes that because of a Republican victory, everything will be overturned, restoring initial coin offerings (ICOs), achieving universal airdrops, and other forms of token rationalization. They may also make fee conversion and token dividends possible. Moreover, the rationalization of regulations in the U.S. will refocus attention on dApps and other truly important matters, but it may also lead to a prolonged bear market.
While many believe that Trump's election will be a turning point for crypto to rise again, some crypto individuals believe the impact of the election is limited.
From the past two election cycles, neither Republican nor Democratic presidential candidates have affected the upward trend of the crypto market. The long-term impact on the crypto market still largely stems from the industry's own technological development and key factors like Federal Reserve meeting decisions.
Trump's crypto supporters behind him.
Trump's election may provide better development opportunities for his crypto supporters. Multiple leaders in the crypto industry have sent donations to Trump's super PAC, the Trump 47 Committee, and America PAC.
According to incomplete statistics, the two co-founders of a16z, Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, donated $2.5 million to Trump's super PAC.
The founders of the crypto exchange Gemini and Winklevoss Capital Management have also collectively donated over $2 million.
Additionally, two partners from Sequoia Capital, Douglas Leone and Shaun Maguire, donated $1 million and $500,000 respectively.
Kraken co-founder Jesse Powell also donated $500,000. David Bailey, CEO of media group BTC Inc., donated over $498,000 worth of Bitcoin.
Ripple's chief legal officer, Stuart Alderoty, donated $300,000 worth of XRP.
Having first appeared on the election stage, the gears of crypto's fate may have started turning.
Trump's strong promotion of 'crypto' has also allowed crypto, since the birth of Bitcoin, to finally take the stage in U.S. elections in a meaningful way after 16 years and three election cycles.
This is undoubtedly due to favorable timing, the ongoing expansion of Bitcoin and crypto market capitalization, the accumulation of crypto users, and the collision of election cycles with crypto bull market cycles.
The last election year was 2020, when crypto was in a bear market, and Bitcoin was around $8,000. By 2024, crypto has entered a bull market, with Bitcoin repeatedly breaking through $70,000, once surpassing the market value of silver, and has long since transitioned from being a fringe asset to a mainstream global asset.
Young crypto voters and the increasing trend of crypto donations have also become a force that cannot be ignored by crypto politicians.
Payment company Triple-A reports that by 2024, the global digital currency user base will reach 562 million people (6.8% of the global population), meaning that 6.8% of the global population owns cryptocurrency. Among cryptocurrency holders, 34% are aged between 24 and 35. The young and diverse nature of crypto users has also significantly influenced key battlegrounds in the U.S. elections.
According to a report by security.org, the estimated number of cryptocurrency holders in the U.S. has reached 93 million, meaning over 30% of Americans own cryptocurrency. A study released by Coinbase showed that one-sixth of cryptocurrency holders reside in key states. Furthermore, 90% of cryptocurrency voters expressed their enthusiasm for voting on November 5 to support cryptocurrency candidates, which is four times that of non-voters.
Under the 2024 election cycle, it marks the beginning of the SEC's oppressive regulation on crypto. In 2024, crypto and settlement fees hit a new high of nearly $20 billion, and crypto leaders have become targets of crypto crackdowns. This has led many crypto companies or investment institutions, like Ripple, Coinbase, Kraken, and a16z, to attempt to secure a better living environment through political donations.
In 2024, the participation of crypto traders in election donations also reached a historic high, significantly surpassing the previous election cycle.
Regardless of whether Trump subsequently fulfills his crypto promises, it does not affect the significance of the 2024 U.S. elections as an important milestone in the history of crypto development.
As a super 'sales king', Trump's bold use of crypto during his campaign has attracted larger crowds globally to pay attention to and even participate in crypto.
In addition to publicly making crypto promises to garner votes, Trump and his family have also entered the mainstream by accepting crypto donations, continuing with NFTs, launching the 'Trump DeFi Official Channel', and even introducing the cryptocurrency project World Liberty Financial.
Additionally, the crypto prediction platform Polymarket has become one of the most notable crypto products with Trump's many retweets. Its election prediction data has been cited by Bloomberg, CNBC, and others multiple times, with Bloomberg Terminal even adding Polymarket's election odds to its services.
With multiple forces contributing to crypto entering the 2024 U.S. election stage and mainstream visibility, crypto is expected to become an indispensable force in the U.S. elections, and the gears of crypto's fate may have quietly begun to turn.
