Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is catching up with Trump with 99 votes to 120, and the gap between the two is beginning to narrow. Billionaire Elon Musk, who has turned to support Trump, posted on Twitter, calling on supporters to drag everyone around them to the polling station, and continued to update the odds of winning in the OTC betting market. According to data from Polymarket, a large OTC betting platform, Trump's chance of winning has soared to 71.2%.
US election results update: Trump leads Harris by 120 votes, 99 votes
Trump is expected to win Arkansas and Florida, while Harris will win New Jersey and Delaware, according to Bloomberg. AP News says Trump won Florida, Arkansas, Alabama, Missouri and South Carolina, while Harris took Massachusetts, New Jersey, Vermont, Illinois and Maryland.
Voters ranked the economy, immigration as the most important voting issues. Government officials and election workers were on high alert for violence and pranks. Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson and Wisconsin Republican Party Chairman Brian Heamin arrived at the Milwaukee Central Counting Center and signed in as observers to ask about the discovery that the scanner door was not closed properly, which prompted election officials to rescan about 31,000 ballots to avoid doubts about the results. "It looks like a real mess," Johnson told reporters.
In Polymarket, the Democrats' chances of retaining the Senate have plummeted to just 8%.
The Trump campaign blocked several reporters from attending an election watch party on Tuesday night because of some of the criticisms it reported, according to the New York Times. The Trump campaign revoked election party access for some reporters.
Some top House Republicans did not return to their districts to celebrate their reelection, including House Republican Chief Deputy Whip Guy Reschenthaler of Pennsylvania, who said via text message: "I'm coming to Palm Beach to party."
"Trump deal" triggers global market shock
The US dollar index soared and Bitcoin hit a record high. This is a red tsunami caused by the "Trump deal".
The foreign exchange market may be taking a breather for now, but options markets are still preparing for high volatility later today. For example, one-day implied volatility for USD/JPY, a measure of the next day's expected move, remains near its highest level in three months.
Among commodities, it is noteworthy that gold has been able to hold up despite a higher dollar and Treasury yields. As a non-yielding asset denominated in dollars, gold tends to fall in such situations. However, if Trump wins, most investors believe that gold could be a beneficiary.
Musk and Trump's "active" Twitter posts
Musk wrote in the pinned post: "Get everyone you know to vote."
He also continued to update the community with information about Polymarket and emphasized that the prediction (market bet) had been fulfilled.
(Source: Twitter)
According to Polymarket data, Trump's chances of winning have soared to over the important 70% mark.
Trump also actively posted on Twitter, calling on voters in swing states not to stop and continue to go to the polling stations to cast their sacred votes. "Hey, Republicans! If you are in line, please make sure you stay in line..."
While there have been no surprises so far, Trump trade is heating up in the early stages of the vote count. Looking around the world, what do Trump's proposed tariffs mean for the world?
A 60% tariff on U.S. imports from China and a 20% tariff worldwide would bring U.S. tariffs to their highest level since the early 20th century. Bloomberg estimates the tariffs would reduce the U.S. share of global merchandise trade to around 9% from 21% currently.
China’s exports to the United States would fall by nearly 90%, and Canada and Mexico could see declines of about 50%. The impact on economic activity for most of the United States’ partners would be negative but small. The notable exceptions are Mexico and Canada, where GDP would be 2% lower than the estimated baseline by 2028 if the United States implemented Trump’s proposals and the rest of the world retaliated.
