On election day, as the results approach, Trump vs. Harris has entered a heated phase.

Are you following the drama?

Originally, the US election was just a way for me to find arbitrage opportunities in the crypto circle, but I found that rather than fussing over it, it's better to just enjoy the drama. It's really interesting, and even if you don't trade cryptocurrencies, you'll learn more.

Since there are definitely more and better analysts in the market than me, I will just share what I am interested in.


Following the drama.


Has anyone noticed the media advantage in this election?

Because our country has a subtle relationship with the United States, whenever it involves Sino-Japanese news, most media almost always carry some emotions, to the point that I never read domestic news about the US and Japan; 90% of it distorts the facts.

But the election is not, the election is watching other countries' excitement without caring about the trouble, and it has little to do with one's own country. Instead, some objective content can emerge; of course, more people are looking forward to chaos in the US, and some bad media have indeed uncovered a lot of information, haha.


Many friends may still not understand when the results will come out. Indeed, there are not many who can explain it, because the election is not what we understand it to be.

By the deadline, count the votes received by the candidates; the one with the most wins.

In fact, the process from the voting day on November 5th to the completion of the election is very complicated.

Taking the classic swing state of Pennsylvania as an example.


Voting hours are from 7 AM to 8 PM.

Then on Friday, November 8th, the votes will be tallied, assessing their real effectiveness.

However, on Tuesday night, there will definitely be candidates declaring victory based on the results of exit polls, which are public opinion surveys conducted at polling stations. The actual statutory results are still far off.

On November 12th, results were reported from various places.

There may still be a possibility of a recount later.

On November 20th, no more recounts will be accepted.

On November 25th, lock in the results.

...

Only on December 25th will it be considered the official results.

The president will take office on January 20th next year.


It can be seen that for the media, exit polls are almost equivalent to the final results, and the areas affected by the news are similar, digesting the information in advance.

Another decisive indicator is that the Electoral College consists of 538 electors, and a majority (at least 270 votes) is required.

Only the candidates of the electoral votes can win.

The current link to observe the real-time vote count progress is as follows: (may require a proxy)

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/electoral-college-map?game-id=2024-PG-CNN-ratings&game-view=map


Note: The above times refer to Eastern Standard Time in the US. The states in the US are distributed across four different time zones, so there may be some discrepancies. Eastern Standard Time is 13 hours behind Beijing Time. Therefore, voting will gradually end at 10 PM on November 5th Eastern Time, which is 11 AM on November 6th Beijing Time. So on Wednesday, tomorrow at noon, the news may start to stir.


There's an article that explains the process in detail, everyone can just jump over and take a look.

https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_29240281


If you're following the drama, there's not much fun today, let's eat it tomorrow. Domestic media will definitely have a lot of live broadcasts, just find a platform to watch. The crypto circle’s collection of rhythmic notifications is also good.

https://www.theblockbeats.info/news/55628

Don't bet.


Why say don't bet? Because the election is not a certain event, regardless of how you gamble, there are huge fluctuations.

Risk.


If you can't control yourself, then consider a suitable way to participate, manage your positions and leverage. You can engage in any play, just like betting on sports when bored. Never play high asset leverage with the mindset of getting rich overnight from the election. There’s no need for that. Always remember that you are investing to accumulate wealth, not flipping a coin to determine win or lose.


What to play?


If you want to bet that Trump wins and related cryptocurrencies surge, consider a reasonable position to ambush the corresponding coins, such as Musk's DOGE and other major coins. Even if Trump loses, it won't directly lead to a fundamental loss. Ambush in advance, don't fear going to zero. What if there’s a potential crash? Place a spike order; going below 10% is a good idea. If it drops by 30%, it's indeed a good opportunity to enter. Spike orders are necessary; anyway, there’s no loss.


Smart people can probably find arbitrage opportunities that guarantee returns, but arbitrage works like this: the larger your capital, the safer it is, because even a 1% profit justifies your actions. If it's not worth it, then there's no point in fussing around.

If you've come this far, please follow and like before you go. I am Qing Tian, an old leeks who sincerely wishes you wealth!