Can you still move into the White House after losing the votes?
In the U.S. election, the person who ultimately occupies the White House may not necessarily be the one who wins the most votes. In American history, there have been five presidents who did not win the support of the majority of voters. These five are considered to have lost based on the popular vote results, yet they won the presidency by securing a majority in the Electoral College.
Such rare 'black swan' events are caused by the two layers of voting machines in the U.S. elections. During the popular voting phase, the votes cast by voters do not directly elect the president; the voting results only show which party the 'electors' from each state belong to. This Electoral College will represent the voters of each state and vote for the presidential candidates to determine the final winner of the election.
Previously, traders who heavily bet on 'Trump's assets' began to cash out, resulting in varying degrees of decline in cryptocurrencies, the U.S. dollar, U.S. stocks, gold, and U.S. bonds. No one expected the profits in hand to vanish, and at the very least, they would balance their positions and reduce their bets on Trump's assets.
At the current stage, we can see that Harris's chance of winning will be higher than Trump's, and Trump may lose. During the voting process in Pennsylvania, the Trump team may encounter Democratic 'cheating,' reminiscent of the scandals of the 2020 presidential election! At the very least, market sentiment has been shaken, making it hesitant to heavily invest in Trump's assets. If a similar 'black swan' event occurs again in this election, it will be the only advantage for Bitcoin to rise.
What changes will the cryptocurrency circle face next?
Viewpoint one: If Trump wins, there is no doubt that Bitcoin will see a significant surge. Note that I am specifically talking about Bitcoin and not the entire cryptocurrency market; whether the entire market can follow suit will depend on Trump's subsequent policy strength. Only then might it forcibly push the cryptocurrency market into a bull market.
Viewpoint two: If Harris wins, the price of Bitcoin will return and undergo a deep correction, with a waterfall-like price movement likely pushing it close to 60,000, before starting an upward trend.
Viewpoint three: This refers to the occurrence of the 'black swan' event. From the polls, we can see that Harris has a probability of winning the popular vote; however, there may be 'dark' events during the electors' voting. Therefore, the market is likely to show a bottoming rebound pattern, just that the correction may not be very strong, and the duration is relatively short.
Viewpoint four: Regardless of who wins or loses, the cryptocurrency market will ultimately see a rise. I have mentioned this viewpoint within the circle, and details can be found inside, explaining the underlying logic for the rise, why the bull market has not yet arrived, and why the current price is in a declining state.
In the short term, whether on the 4-hour or hourly chart, the price is above 68,000, and the rebound momentum has not opened up. Moreover, the trend is not in a weak pattern; even if there is a short-term rebound, it does not show continuous bullish action that keeps probing lower points, but rather runs in a sideways manner. The upper limit at 69,300 is a short-term pivot point, and a short position can be implemented with pressure at this level.
