In the past week, the market has experienced significant fluctuations due to the US election. When Polymarket's odds of Trump winning rose to 67%, BTC prices briefly broke through $73,620. However, as weekend polls showed a tight race between Trump and Harris, Trump's winning odds dropped to 55%, and on November 5, BTC prices also briefly fell to a low of $67,059, with $70,000 becoming the latest resistance level for BTC prices. As of the publication of this content, BTC prices fluctuate around $68,800 (data sourced from Binance spot market, November 5, 15:00).
The US election is about to settle, and the market is waiting for the election results. On November 4, Eastern Time, the three major US stock indexes closed down. The US election, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and US stock earnings reports have become the biggest focus of the macro market this week.
Market Analysis
The first voting point results of the election are out, with Trump and Harris each receiving 3 votes.
The town of Dixville Notch in New Hampshire announced the voting results of 6 voters, with Harris and Trump each receiving three votes. Four Republicans and two unaffiliated voters participated in the voting.
Due to the US election and Daylight Saving Time, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting has been postponed by one day.
Affected by the US election and Daylight Saving Time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 3:00 AM Beijing time on November 8 (Friday). As is customary, the Federal Reserve holds its monetary policy meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday, announcing the decision results at 3:00 AM Beijing time on Thursday. However, this time it coincides with the US election voting, leading to a one-day delay in the Federal Reserve's meeting.
Microstrategy announces a $42 billion BTC investment plan, which may act as a catalyst for the long-term development of BTC.
Last week, Microstrategy announced a three-year $42 billion BTC investment plan, mainly to increase BTC holdings by raising funds through stock issuance and convertible bonds. In the long term, this plan may drive up BTC prices.
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Election data is stuck in a deadlock, and the market remains unclear about the election results, causing traders to lose their trading direction. Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's BTC options shows an increase in hedging demand against price declines, indicating traders' concerns about falling BTC prices during election week. However, many analysts believe that BTC's upward trend will not change due to the presidential candidates.
Whether Trump or Harris is elected, the potential asset trend divergences triggered by their economic policies, as well as the US economy's soft landing, hard landing, or no landing scenarios. Additionally, October data shows that expectations of 'tax cuts' and 'decoupling from China' in Trump's economic policies will inevitably lead to a further increase in US debt, with severe selling of US bonds.
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